I am a ROCK, I am an Island.
I seldom play any hand for the first several orbits. I watch many get lucky, and make notes.
Good example, last night, FT Poker afterdark.net 360 players I think. In the first 80 hands or so, I only saw 13 flops, of those 8 were uncontested bb's. The cards were running very poor. I had only seen 2 turns, with 4 reasonable hands, folded qq pre turn when flop was kxx, and player before me went all in. Folded 77 preturn when flop was not favorable. The other two hands I won, but was still below average.
Then the cards changed, and I was able to get above average, and to the final table. DOnked out with a very bad read...... BUT
I watched ALL those lucky donks who did so well early, go away.