Folding when you're ahead?

wmdgrind

wmdgrind

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Is this ever okay? Do any of you do it? Ever? Does it totally depend to the game/situation?

Here's the story:

Last Friday I was playing a live 1/2 game at my local card room. I was dealt AA utg. It was a loose game (and typically is) so I popped it to $20 pre.

No respect. (Which is usually the reason I get paid there)

7 callers.

Flop come J 3 7 -- two spades.

Both blinds check to me. There's roughly $140 in the pot. I make it $100. In hindsight I could've checked and found out where the spades were but well... Hindsight. Yah.

The BB asks as action is moving around the table if I would like a call; to which my response was "No, I want you to stick it all in." And I was serious. We're both playing about $500 to start the hand btw.

He smooth calls then checks, turn is a spade. I reluctantly push the rest of my stack in.

.....I had a black A. Didn't know the suit yet. Didn't really care. I was however, maybe, still alive.

He snaps. River is another spade. HOPE!.... But nope. I had the club.

I knew what he had or a range of it anyway. 97s. Can't even blame the guy. In his position he was getting the right odds pre-flop.


Looking back at this hand. Could anyone see folding on the flop to pressure?? I knew if I checked, someone would've fired(although probably less than I did), then I would've had to decide; call, fold or stick it right there.

Check/call felt like wasting $$$. And when the turn comes you HAVE to fold. I guess that brings me back to the thread title; ever fold after the flop while you're winning?? I could've saved $ but ultimately my decision was made the way it always is-- 'these suckas aren't going to get lucky on me every time, right?!' Board could've easily seen its last spade on the flop and I would've been PAID!

What do you guys think?
Feel free to respond to any of the post however, I'd really like to know when you guys think it's okay to fold when you're ahead. TIA

May the Flop be with You
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Why are you shoving the turn...? You're way ahead or way way behind here, especially without the A of spades. Even with it, you're probably way behind. There's $340 in the pot on the turn, and you overbet jam the rest of your stack for $360.

You were in position; he gave you a chance to check behind for pot control. If you had checked behind, he probably would have checked behind the river with his small flush, or put out a small bet to which you could have folded to.
Only worse hand that could call you here is a jack, but even then I don't think live fishes would stack off for 250bb with a lone jack on a scary board.

I also do not see why you did not even check your hole cards before jamming. Even if you had the Ace of spades, that's even more of a reason to check back. It just seems like you were on tilt, and jammed "because I have Aces." Aces are not invincible; it is a one pair hand. It may sound weird, but AA is pretty much the same as AJ here. Sure we have absolute card strength here, but our relative strength is pretty bad if villain wants to stack off for 250bb here. I don't know about live, but online TPTK is almost never good even for 100bb, unless it's a 3-bet pot.

I'm also not sure what you mean by folding flop to pressure; it looks you made a standard c-bet and got called. And he didn't exactly smooth call. Smooth calling is when you make a call with a hand that's worthy of being raised, but just calling instead to disguise your hand strength.

I don't think it's okay to fold if you are ahead. If you want to "protect" your winnings for the day or feel satisfied with the amount you've won, just leave the table. Don't start playing scared money.
 
smallfrie

smallfrie

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If you put him on spades and are sure then on the flop you are a coin flip at %50.71 for the 97 to win vs your AA at %49.29 to win so really at that point it is really what your game is.. High variance or low variance on whether you want to play a big pot on a flip. After the turn hits I know you probably don't want the villain to see you looking back at your hole cards but c'mon you have to know what Ace you are holding before you make any kind of decision.
 
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MinhANguyen

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He doesn't necessarily have spades by calling here. He could have a J or some combo draw. Either way, the turn is definitely a check back with or without the ace of spades, as we are way ahead or way behind here. They were not all-in on the flop; there was no flipping going on. And it'd be even worse if he went all-in on the flop or called a jam because 99% of the time if Villain jams or calls a jam here at 1/2 live for 250bb, it's a set. Hero would be drawing almost dead.
 
wmdgrind

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I agree completely when you say "know what A you're holding"

I think as far as the entire hand is concerned; I could've did a few things differently as I said in the OP.

I'm just curious as to whether or not anyone is folding on the flop; if they had either checked or been in later position and were bet into.

I think you kinda nailed it with the percentages. It's a coin flip (and you know it) BUT you're slightly ahead and they have to get lucky to win.

If they ship it on the flop, on a flush draw-- are you calling with AA?

It's really one of the hardest decisions in poker.

I think it comes down to BR. If the 300-500 sitting in front of you is all you got, fold right? But then if you do that every time (fold while you're ahead) should you even be playing the game?
 
smallfrie

smallfrie

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He doesn't necessarily have spades by calling here. He could have a J or some combo draw. Either way, the turn is definitely a check back with or without the ace of spades, as we are way ahead or way behind here. They were not all-in on the flop; there was no flipping going on. And it'd be even worse if he went all-in on the flop or called a jam because 99% of the time if Villain jams or calls a jam here at 1/2 live for 250bb, it's a set. Hero would be drawing almost dead.

Look If you are sitting across the table from a player and you have narrowed his hand to spades and you are continuing in the hand with 2 spades on the flop you are doing so knowing you are now flipping unless you are totally wrong about what he has. I am not going to base my decisions on being wrong in this case. So you are no longer ahead statistically. If you have narrowed his hand down to some kind of combo draw what are the odds on that draw? You need to proceed based on that because I am assuming this player did not play the type of hand you are putting him on to just fold after he flopped well so the decision is pretty much down to odds based on his range and what part of that range I think he has, because I don't think I can push him out. And when I say flipping I am talking specifically about the odds assuming I am correct on what the hand match-up is regardless of what the betting is to follow.
 
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smallfrie

smallfrie

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And by the way I am going broke with AA on that board every time. lol
 
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MinhANguyen

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No, your flop decision was correct. I like the sizing, and I am never check-folding Aces here. I am, however, bet folding against a deep stack (200bb+). When we get raised on this type of board against a deep stack, we are pretty much always dead to a set, unless you have a dead read that they'd do this with TP hands. Live 1/2 are so passive that they'd rather call with TP and a spade draw/combo draw (which we're flipping against) than jam for 250bb, as seen in this hand.

When he flats you here, he has a Jack, flush draw, or combo draw. There aren't many two pairs, and sets would jam the flop with the low SPR. I would bet any non-spade turn or jam. I'd only do this move live though; online I'd just check behind because deep-stacked 25NL/50NL online players are generally good enough not to be stacking off with one pair here for 250bb. If a spade comes on the turn, I'd check behind looking to fold the river or call off a small blocking bet OTR. Any big bet and I am folding. Not calling anything bigger than 1/2 PSB, and even might fold to a 1/2PSB if I have reads that he made the flush.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Look If you are sitting across the table from a player and you have narrowed his hand to spades and you are continuing in the hand with 2 spades on the flop you are doing so knowing you are now flipping unless you are totally wrong about what he has. I am not going to base my decisions on being wrong in this case. So you are no longer ahead statistically. If you have narrowed his hand down to some kind of combo draw what are the odds on that draw? You need to proceed based on that because I am assuming this player did not play the type of hand you are putting him on to just fold after he flopped well so the decision is pretty much down to odds based on his range and what part of that range I think he has, because I don't think I can push him out. And when I say flipping I am talking specifically about the odds assuming I am correct on what the hand match-up is regardless of what the betting is to follow.

No, you are not flipping against a spade draw. We actually have about 70% equity against a spade draw, so we are way ahead. We are flipping against a combo draw or pair + spade draw, as Villain had in this hand. And we cannot put Villain squarely on a spade draw. He could have a combo draw, pair + spade draw, just a spade draw, or a lone J. Against a lone spade draw or a J, we are way way ahead.

And if you are going broke on this type of board OTF 7-way for 250bb, you should not be playing deep-stacked poker.
 
IPlay

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Only read the OP but in a live game where you saw the flop with 7 callers pre, someone has the flush draw and when you bet and get a call and the draw completes on turn, you are beat 90% of the time, if they bet 100%. I honestly like x/jamming flop from you unless you check and some crazy action goes on then x/folding wouldn't be terrible(by crazy action, like a bet a raise and a call and you can probably assume you are beat).
 
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MinhANguyen

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Thing is, we do not want the pot to check around. I'd rather bet myself and call a normal BI 100bb-150bbish shove than let it check around and let someone get a free card to a random gutshot, 2 pair, set, etc. I doubt any draws or weak pairs are betting here 7-way; pretty much only jacks. And it is hard to make a pair, especially TP.
 
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Kekule

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I really don't like the turn shove here. You only get called by hands that beat you (JJ and flush mainly).

Also, this basically comes down to having a read on your opponent. For instance, I had a guy flat my 4bet when I was holding AA. Flop comes KQ5. I cbet, he shoves all in. It was a very clear fold at that point to me. I knew the only 2 hands he had preflop were AA, KK, or QQ. The best I could hope for was a chop if he had AA which of course was a lot less likely than KK or QQ. It sucked to fold, but when you know you're beat, then you're beat.

But there's absolutely no reason to fold if you are ahead. The whole point of playing solid, winning poker is to get the money in when you're a favorite to win. You're playing the better side of the odds to even out the variance in the long run. If anything, you should have shoved the flop or at least bet pot to 1.5x pot in order to price out their draws.
 
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6bet me

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Also, this basically comes down to having a read on your opponent. For instance, I had a guy flat my 4bet when I was holding AA. Flop comes KQ5. I cbet, he shoves all in. It was a very clear fold at that point to me. I knew the only 2 hands he had preflop were AA, KK, or QQ. The best I could hope for was a chop if he had AA which of course was a lot less likely than KK or QQ. It sucked to fold, but when you know you're beat, then you're beat.

How do you know he didn't have AK?
 
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MinhANguyen

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How do you know he didn't have AK?

+1. In a 4-bet pot, you're always stacking off with Aces no matter how scary the board gets. I'd really only consider folding if it were KKQ or something like that, and IF I knew my opponent were a competent player who's not flatting AQ/AJ sooted or less than the top premium hands to a 4-bet. On KQx you are beating AK, so you pretty much have to go with it. It's really hard to flop a set, especially in a 3-bet pot. Aces is an auto stack-off in a 4-bet pot; the SPR is too low and you can't really fold unless you are absolutely 100% sure you are beat.
 
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Kekule

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I had previous hands to go off of for this opponent. The 4 bet alone narrowed my opponent's range to AA, KK, QQ, and AK suited (AK would have been unlikely though)

The shear fact that I have AA greatly reduced the number of hands in that range significantly. So then I had the choice to stack off knowing that I am very much behind. Clear choice.
 
wmdgrind

wmdgrind

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Thanks for all the posts.

My question WAS answered fwiw. Had to read between the lines to get it but I got it.

I'm having trouble finding the quote feature on my mobile but MinhANguyen pretty much summed up a lot of my thought process during the hand.

Kekule-- I totally agree that the turn shove wasn't the best idea (I didn't like the move either--in hindsight) I was bluffing at that point. Mind you, there's north of 3 bills in the pot and I'm not playing very deep now that my chips are in the middle. He could've folded and been holding AJo there for all I know.

Point is and the point of the OP was-- WE DON'T PLAY THIS GAME TO FOLD WHEN WE'RE AHEAD. Ever.

Scary boards only effect how your next decision will be made. If you're in late position and he jambs the flop on a flush draw-- I would think flush draw or set STILL snap call with AA.

Don't fold when you're ahead thinking the world is against and he's going to get lucky. More often than not, the spade ain't coming.
 
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