Folded KK on 9 high flop

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IPlay

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I hated folding here but....

This is 25NL FR on Bovada btw and stack sizes of Hero and BB are

Hero $99.79(399BB)
BB $30.86(123BB)

UTG(Hero) KsKd Raises $0.75
UTG +1 Calls $0.75
folds to BB who calls for $0.50

Flop,($2.15) 4s9h7h

Hero bets $1.85
UTG+1 Folds
BB raises $7.90

Hero tanks, crys, then folds

Thoughts?

I personally felt like it was shove or fold at that point and best case scenario was probably a coin flip against a str8/flush draw or he had a set and I was crushed. I really feel like he did not raise that high with complete air.

I felt like villian could have many hands from the BB including 44, 77, 99, 54h, 108h, 86h, 65h or any combo of 97 which all had me as a coin flip at best.
 
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Looks like you'd been at the table for awhile... if a pot sized re-raise is abnormal for villain it's an easy fold and it must be if you feel you're either folding or playing for stacks.
 
el_magiciann

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I won't fold here but that's maybe cuz i am a fish or i've never played more than once 25NL :D
 
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Looks like you'd been at the table for awhile... if a pot sized re-raise is abnormal for villain it's an easy fold and it must be if you feel you're either folding or playing for stacks.

I had about 70 hands on the hud at the moment and villian had about 30 and his stats were something like this

VPIP 16 PFR 12 AF 2.3 Not sure if he had 3bet yet by that point

I am still at that table with him and his stats are now

65 hands VPIP 23 PFR 9 3B 4 AF 2.0

He seemed like a pretty solid player so I gave him credit, hopefully not to much credit. I suppose he could of had 1010 or JJ also. I think he would of raised pre with QQ but you never know.

I will post what he had in 24 hours to see if it was a good lay down or not
 
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Ran through equilab and JJ-99,77,44,T8s,97s,86s,65s,54s,97o vs KK I am a 52% favorite and if I take JJ and 1010 out of his range villian is a 61% favorite, so I was either crushed or a coin flip. I actually feel good about the fold now since I only had about $3.00 put into the pot at the time.

Should I add just flush draws into his range?(I am kind of new when it comes to equity calculators.)
 
punctual

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i would fold....villain probably had two pairs or a set

OTOH, if i knew this player was the type to overbet top pair or flush draw, he'd probably have me all in with him there...in that case he sees the flop is not good for players holding big cards (like AQK, etc...) so he figures you are on a draw yourself....

since it was Bovada, why did you not have a look art what really happened 24 hours later? that is the great thing about bovada: you can see what everyone at the table had 24-hours later. They allow this because players are anonymized....
 
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I have no idea for that. Maybe he just have QQ. And I also think it is too many chips for just having KK. So fold or not just depends on my feeling.
 
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i would fold....villain probably had two pairs or a set

OTOH, if i knew this player was the type to overbet top pair or flush draw, he'd probably have me all in with him there...in that case he sees the flop is not good for players holding big cards (like AQK, etc...) so he figures you are on a draw yourself....

since it was Bovada, why did you not have a look art what really happened 24 hours later? that is the great thing about bovada: you can see what everyone at the table had 24-hours later. They allow this because players are anonymized....

I will post what he had tomorrow this happened today. I also thought about him putting me on AK but who is to say. I really feel like he semi bluffed a very strong draw.

Kworm, I like your thinking, that was how I felt, didn't want to put in 120BB with a pair. Especially when I only had about 12-15BB in the pot up to that point.

Can anyone give me feed back on what I ran through equilab? I am pretty new when it comes to that and want to make sure I am doing everything the most efficiently.
 
Aces2w1n

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He didn't 3bet which means it's doubtful he has AA or QQ unless he's slow playing.

It does look like a flush or 2pair or even set.... .It's an overbet so he doesn't want a caller so he's getting no value at all for his set unless he's beat or against a monster draw so it's a weird move. it's most likely a draw or 2pair.

I think it's a weak fold but if you don't feel like gambling or flipping maybe its time to call it a night. If you knew he was a weak player you could always shove over the top if u do run into 2pair the board can pair up a lot of the time.


Best of luck... I guess its conservative to fold in that spot but so many hands you beat that would play like that... Stats like that don't mean they are a good player it just means they think tight is right. post flop could be their weak point.
 
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If I don't feel like gambling I should call it a night? Lol, I don't play poker to gamble all my money away on coin flips. Thanks for the advice though.
 
Arjonius

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i would fold....villain probably had two pairs or a set.
How likely are two pair hands, given that they require a player with his stats to have called pre- with 97, 94 or 74?
 
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How likely are two pair hands, given that they require a player with his stats to have called pre- with 97, 94 or 74?

I do not find it to far fetched for someone from the BB to call with 97s. He was getting about 3 to 1 on a call and I only had 30 hands on villian at the time to its hard to tell how accurate his stats actually were.

We can find out in about 5 hours though :p

I'm going to be pretty irate if he ends up having a hand like A9 lol

Do you think it was a bad fold Arjonius? Should I have shipped?
 
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Lets try and break this down a little. First you have call $6.05 to win $11.90. Which means you need to have win around 50.4% of the time for this to be a break even play. If your odds to win are better than 50.4% then this is a must call +EV move.
Now lets take a minute to figure out what his likely range of hands is, and see how we stack up against it.

I took the range that you listed - though I didn't limit it down to only heart draws and I added TT+ to it.

So the range I am looking at is 99+, 77, 44, 97s, T8s, 86s, 65s, 54s, 97o. I think it would be silly to assume he is only doing this with combo draws some times he will have only a flush, sometimes only a straight draw.
Against that range we have about a 97% equity.

I think, for realities sake, we should add in some nut flush draws as well, which means an A or a ♥ will make us a loser. To narrow the range further I added A9o, and all suited A's that don't have a 4 9 or 7.
That actually had a big impact on our equity, we went all the way down to 61%. If I make it only A's with a heart draw then we drop to just north 55%.

This would have been a good call on the flop.
 
MisterLongFace

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when you raise pre with a hand like KK, make a solid post flop bet and get reraised like this, typically the percentage of times you are ahead is fairly high

they may have smooth called lower pp and are hoping they are best, they may have picked up a draw and are trying to take down the pot while willing to call all in, they may only have picked up one pair on the flop and are semi bluffing, and they also may be firing with air

i see all of these scenarios regularly when i am pushing AA or KK, and the times when i am actually behind post flop is uncommon.

the one problem on this particular hand though is the amount of raise preflop. when you raise enough pre, you push the caller into more likely making a bad push on the flop with a draw or otherwise inferior hand because they dont want to give up money invested

its better to raise enough to either induce folds from players, or induce a bad call from someone who is willing to try and aggressively play it from behind. otherwise you are playing blind and it is difficult to make the math work out in the long run.
 
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Lets try and break this down a little. First you have call $6.05 to win $11.90. Which means you need to have win around 50.4% of the time for this to be a break even play. If your odds to win are better than 50.4% then this is a must call +EV move.
Now lets take a minute to figure out what his likely range of hands is, and see how we stack up against it.

I took the range that you listed - though I didn't limit it down to only heart draws and I added TT+ to it.

So the range I am looking at is 99+, 77, 44, 97s, T8s, 86s, 65s, 54s, 97o. I think it would be silly to assume he is only doing this with combo draws some times he will have only a flush, sometimes only a straight draw.
Against that range we have about a 97% equity.

I think, for realities sake, we should add in some nut flush draws as well, which means an A or a ♥ will make us a loser. To narrow the range further I added A9o, and all suited A's that don't have a 4 9 or 7.
That actually had a big impact on our equity, we went all the way down to 61%. If I make it only A's with a heart draw then we drop to just north 55%.

This would have been a good call on the flop.

This is the reply I was looking for! Thanks!

I am pretty confused how we have 97% equity against the first range of hands you put?? Hard to believe villian was nearly drawing dead on that flop vs a single pair :confused:

I take it you are in favor of calling the raise and seeing the turn since I did have position on him anyway? Not really fold or shove like I was picturing it?
 
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This is the reply I was looking for! Thanks!

I am pretty confused how we have 97% equity against the first range of hands you put?? Hard to believe villian was nearly drawing dead on that flop vs a single pair :confused:

I take it you are in favor of calling the raise and seeing the turn since I did have position on him anyway? Not really fold or shove like I was picturing it?

In the first set there were a lot of combo draws but not much we were directly beaten by. I also listed the range as broader than only combo straight and flush draws. So only some of the time was both, which means there are fewer outs. I was also using a monte carlo simulation and only processed a few thousand potential results - so the number could be different, but I would be suprised if it moved by more than 3-4%, and even if it does who cares.

You are deep stacked there, and with only $17 in the pot its not yet time for a shove, and you can still get away from the hand on the turn, depending on what lands.
 
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In the first set there were a lot of combo draws but not much we were directly beaten by. I also listed the range as broader than only combo straight and flush draws. So only some of the time was both, which means there are fewer outs. I was also using a monte carlo simulation and only processed a few thousand potential results - so the number could be different, but I would be suprised if it moved by more than 3-4%, and even if it does who cares.

You are deep stacked there, and with only $17 in the pot its not yet time for a shove, and you can still get away from the hand on the turn, depending on what lands.

Ok, thanks for the reply and explanation, I realize I should of atleast called and saw the turn/villians action. I could easily dumped it then if another heart or straight card came on board.
 
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Ok, thanks for the reply and explanation, I realize I should of atleast called and saw the turn/villians action. I could easily dumped it then if another heart or straight card came on board.

I do have a correction! I mis-entered the flop, 97% is a pretty glaring number, its closer to 68%. Sorry about that, the point still stands that its a +EV call.
 
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I do have a correction! I mis-entered the flop, 97% is a pretty glaring number, its closer to 68%. Sorry about that, the point still stands that its a +EV call.

Lol, I was thinking that was kind of extreme but I am not to experienced when it comes to equity calcs, what program do you use?
 
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I hated folding here but....

This is 25NL FR on Bovada btw and stack sizes of Hero and BB are

Hero $99.79(399BB)
BB $30.86(123BB)

UTG(Hero) KsKd Raises $0.75
UTG +1 Calls $0.75
folds to BB who calls for $0.50

Flop,($2.15) 4s9h7h

Hero bets $1.85
UTG+1 Folds
BB raises $7.90

Hero tanks, crys, then folds

Thoughts?

I personally felt like it was shove or fold at that point and best case scenario was probably a coin flip against a str8/flush draw or he had a set and I was crushed. I really feel like he did not raise that high with complete air.

I felt like villian could have many hands from the BB including 44, 77, 99, 54h, 108h, 86h, 65h or any combo of 97 which all had me as a coin flip at best.

I have read the entire thread, and I want to start with the following: there is NO RIGHT ANSWER to the question "should you fold here?" Even amongst long-term winners, there will be disagreement as to the "correct" play here. The people in favor of calling/re-raising/shoving don't like the "weakness" of folding in this spot. They choose to play a higher variance style of poker than the folders --- but both sides can be profitable if they do a good enough job of identifying the kind of villain they are facing.

If your assessment (based on a small sample) is that villain wouldn't raise there with air, then I think your fold is fine. I make similar folds frequently (at Bovada only, where people can't exploit players that will make this fold because they don't know who they're playing against). Like you, if I suspect that I'm against a set or a combo draw, then I'm perfectly willing to let this hand go and find a better spot. I understand the merits of other opinions, but this decision-making process works well for me. I would rather fold this pot while ahead then get all-in way behind. Reasonable minds can differ on this, but I assure you that my win-rate is solid (at 200NL).

Furthermore, I would like to clarify calling versus shoving in this spot. In my opinion, the WORST thing you can do in this spot is call. You give up the initiative, you look weak(ish), and there are so many scary cards for any combo draw (which you suspect) that the turn can easily get UGLY for you. If you think you're ahead (and willing to accept the risk that you're crushed by a set or massive combo draw), then you should be shoving and charging any draw as heavily as possible while also picking off any air or weak (other pocket pair/mid-par) bluffs. With so many potential bad turn cards, you just leave yourself open to a tougher decision on the turn facing a much larger bet --- and that's shitty poker. So the correct play here is shoving or folding. End of story.

-HooDooKoo
 
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I have always liked your post HooDooKoo and got a lot of respect for your game/thought process and am pretty glad that our thought process is very similar in this spot.
 
sam1chips

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I agree with HooDooKoo, calling can't be an option.

I'm a little nitty, but I think I would fold here. Can't wait to see what villain had lol
 
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I agree with HooDooKoo, calling can't be an option.

I'm a little nitty, but I think I would fold here. Can't wait to see what villain had lol

Haha, same here man, another 2-3 hours I think
 
GGC2912

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Villians Point of view: With a 3BB raise villian puts you on Top card high kicker, and I would have assumed that your just making a continuation bet seeing that you would have missed the top cards.

Now, I would put villian on T9 J9 suited and seeing that there is a flush draw and straight draw on the flop, villian would want you to fold and secure his win with a 9 pair. Hence that raise of $7.90 which makes it really very expensive for you to chase a card and pot odds not in your favour

I'm just a learner, but this how I would have played
I would love to see what cards he held and how he played them

Also, thanks for sharing this, since this is what makes CC special and helps learners like us to analyze a situation and test ourselves.
Cheers :D
 
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