This is a discussion on fold equity! within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Good! I wanted to know what is the mathematical formula to estimate my range of push with 8bb if the hand comes to me folded
Good! I wanted to know what is the mathematical formula to estimate my range of push with 8bb if the hand comes to me folded and I'm cut off. (That is, after my all in must speak Button, Small Blind and Big Blind) and in the well there is 1,5bb.I wanted to know for example if I have A10s if I must do all in or not and what is the mathematical calculation that I must do to know if it is EV + or not.Obviously it depends on the call range of the villains but I wanted the mathematical formula to play for a while and arm my own push or fold table. Could someone who knows the formula and give me an example in this situation please? Thank you very much!!
Just stay away from his calculator until you can do it yourself.
December 31st, 2017, 4:22 AM
You shove all-in for 8bb to win 1.5bb
8/9.5 = 0.84
The villain has got to fold over 84% for you to make a very small profit. If he folds less you are losing money. Actually you will be losing no matter what because nobody in his right mind folds 84% of the time from the BB when he sees you are playing short stack and could be shoving with a wide range.
December 31st, 2017, 2:35 PM
re: Poker & fold equity!
Just looking at this off the top of my head rather than any known strategy...But this is how I'd approach.
I'd imagine your gonna get looked up by 10% of hands, so probs around 30% of the time or less with 3 players to act.
So to B/E you will need your range to average just less than 30% equity v's a 10% range to B/E. I'd imagine...Though I could be wrong, that you could profitably shove 8BB with a 50% range if they stuck to a 10% calling range.
If they called 15% then you'd need maybe 40% equity vs that 15% range, which is a much tighter range (maybe 15% itself).
December 31st, 2017, 2:53 PM
Poker at: betonline
Stueyare making the assumption that the villain is going to win every time he calls? The A10s is never favored and never wins. This seems flawed to me. If the villain is looking you up more than 15% he is not always a favorite. In fact there are many hands that may call you down for being short that you are ahead of. I don't know the math but I do know that this should be factored in.
You need to take into account the % time they fold any you take down the blinds and add that to the % time you have a caller and win the pot and double up against the % time you are called and lose thus being eliminated from the tourney.
Shoving ATs from there should be +ev. You need chips at 8bbs. You will probably be called by hands like 55+, any ace, KQ-KJ or thereabouts.
December 31st, 2017, 5:36 PM
re: Poker & fold equity!
If it's a tournament, it's a bit more complicated than that...I imagine it's cash related given the section of the forum, but Tourney also needs to consider how deep you are in the tourney, stack sizes and the payout structure.
For Tourney and SnG Shove strategy SnG Wizard or ICMIZER are good tools