Fold or Call on River? Combo question

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Daithi

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I am trying to start working with combos and I find it very difficult at the moment, I must admit. As if I don't have enough processing power at the table, feeling overwhelmed and get a blank here and there, and sometimes I take that long that I just give up . But I know off-table work should minimize that gradually.

Anyway, so this example is on the River. So it is a question of Call or Fold. Please bear in mind that the hand isn't 100% as it was, as I was in a pub after a few, but the jist of it should be there.

Cash Game €.10 €.20, Short-handed 4 players
Hero CO Kc5s (deep stack over 200bb)
Super LAG BB (deep stack over 200bb)
Tight semi-passive BTN (effective, roughly 80bb)

Hero raises .60c
TSP Calls, LAG calls, (pot €1.90)
Flop: Kd 3c 5d

I flopped 2 pairs and know I am in a good shape. LAG checks. I c-bet (value) for 1.50.
The TSP does not concern me, as I am primarily targeting the LAG. This guy does not fold, plays ABSOLUTELY any 2 suited cards. Usually check-raises, all ins on River, or big bets. Also he shows his cards almost always, especially his bluffs on River or when people fold to him. His bluffs the turn and river I'd say 80%.

Anyways, TSP calls. LAG calls (pot 5.40).
Turn: 9d

LAG checks, I c-bet 3, call, call. (Pot 15.40)
River: 3h

LAG checks, I check hoping just to call bet, TSP bets 5. I thought he hit the King or attempted to steal, he did that before (even though he is passive, but every time over run by the lag). The LAG re-raises to 15.

So here it is. How should I go about this? This dude plays any suited cards, literally. So with 3 diamonds on the board there is 45 combos remaining crushing me. There is also trips crushing me, how many combos is that? But then there is the fact that he 3/4 of the time raises/re-raises river with nothing!

So I called, hoping the Tight semi-passive would fold. I expected him to fold. Unless he had the flush. He folds. LAG shows Trips and beats my 2 pair. TSP had a King.

How would you best analyse the river call in regards to range. How can you mentally count a range of a dude that has VPIP like 80-90 and off like 60-70?

Sorry if the post is too confusing.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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There aren't a lot of combos of sets/quads. But, there are plenty of combos of hands that beat you and very few that you beat, once we see this action at the river. The biggest mistake was raising K5o from the CO. What were you thinking?
 
MattRyder

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I can't remember the number of times I've seen LAGs all of a sudden wake up with a real hand. It usually happens when I decide to take them to task. Sets are tough to see coming.
 
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Daithi

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Vinnie: The hand isn't 100% correct as I couldn't recall it, but still wanted to post the jist of it and ask a few questions. The final raise on the River by the LAG was actually €10, the tight semi-passive had bet around €3. I had fixed, as a result inflated the pot and bets, in the op as I could remember the whole thing, but was most curious about the river. But I know for a fact the TSP bet around 3, which was about 1/2 or 2/3 pot. LAG 100% raised 10. I also know 100% I bet on the flop. So I might have actually checked the Turn. Sorry for the inconvenience, but I was after a few beers.

Vinnie, Mattryder, I of course expect the LAG to have a real hand now and then. But mostly not. I would call him again the next time, although the flush was very worrying and I was oop against the TSP. He didn't have a set, but trips.

I suppose my question and the whole point of this post is How do you compare the combos he could have that beat me with the high River bluff frequency? If I always look at the combos that beat me and not look at the hands I beat, I will have to always fold.
 
PokerNuts01

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Your two pairs are not worth anything after 3 on river.. You have only "3 pairs" without K (top pair).. Bet and raise lol.. too much hand will win you and you win only and only bluff. Easy fold.
 
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Daithi

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Your two pairs are not worth anything after 3 on river.. You have only "3 pairs" without K (top pair).. Bet and raise lol.. too much hand will win you and you win only and only bluff. Easy fold.

I am sorry but I do not entirely understand your post. I don't know what you mean by "3 pairs".
That is not true at all I could win only against a bluff. I could beat lesser two pairs. I could beat any K (except K3, K9), I could beat any pocket pair from 22-QQ (except 55, 99, 33). And about another 60% of garbage the lag plays with. Of course the Flush posed a significant threat.
 
PokerNuts01

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I could beat any K (except K3, K9), I could beat any pocket pair from 22-QQ (except 55, 99, 33). And about another 60% of garbage the lag plays with. Of course the Flush posed a significant threat.

Which hand did you have?
 
PokerNuts01

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The first time you said that. In the first post, you just said "two pairs".. I never play with K5, for that reason I put you on 35s (two pair) but I understand now that i was wrong, because in that case u would have full house lol. But anyway ... after bet and raise.. easy fold for me ;)
 
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Daithi

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The first time you said that. In the first post, you just said "two pairs"..

The first time I said "I flopped 2 pair" 😃, note the Board was not paired at that time.

Anyway, I can sense that you probably come from online environment. I do too. But first of all, and this goes the same for online and live, it was a 4 handed game (started as 7 handed earlier that evening). Early position folded. So technically 3 handed game. K5o is totally fine. You must play High cards like an A or K with whatever the kicker in such a short handed game. You will bleed to death, if you keep your full ring range in a shorthand game like this, every time player count changes, you must adjust.

Anyway, in my opinion the K5 preflop was totally fine. Flopping 2 pair against a guy who river bets 70% with anything. The dynamic of the hand is very important, especially with a third player involved.

I'm not overly obsessed with the hand analysis per say, one of the reasons the hand wasn't 100% so we cannot have an accurate hand analysis. But the true reason was an exercise and practice how to use combinations effectively to know what to do. But the post hasn't gone that way (yet) :).

P.S. you must realise that in pub games you get pure chancers. They think they are the best at poker, and call other players fish. They use terms like value bet and stuff, but they don't even incorporate it properly into their games. They always say how online game is shit. Why? Because they get crushed! In a book I once read, that live $2/$5 equals to about 10/25c game online skill-wise. And it's true, they are shit. That night I still checked out with an entire buying of profit, even after that loss to that guy.

These guys, not all now - you must know who is who- they play the player. They use big pots to intimidate. Look I could go on for hours....

But according to your posts, you would get crushed, unless you'd adjust to them. You'd be too systematic, they thrive on ABC poker and exploit ABC players. Though one thing to note is if the LAG is on a roll that night, and has a deep stack. That can be dangerous!
 
PokerNuts01

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Flopping 2 pair against a guy who river bets 70% with anything. The dynamic of the hand is very important, especially with a third player involved.

This is fine against an aggressive opponent, but you have another player who bet and hi has the action after you. . thats is big risk wright?
 
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Daithi

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This is fine against an aggressive opponent, but you have another player who bet and hi has the action after you. . thats is big risk wright?

Come to think of it I did Check the Turn. The other player was trying to take the pot with his half pot bet, he thought he was getting value and had us beat. He was an ABC player, who (how successfully is another story) plays online. An easy pushover. The LAG made him fold on the River a two pair with nothing, and the board wasn't too bad either. The guy would not have entered the pot preflop without 2 broadways. I knew he was likely to have a King and I was gonna capitalise on that too. The LAG did not know about my strength as I checked the River. In my books he was overrunning the the other guy again. I had to look him up and hope the other player had no flush and folds. I was right about the other player, only this time the lag had hit Trips.

At the moment, I am convinced I would play it again, although I did not enjoy the other players interference and being oop on him.

I just belief the pay off is better when you look up the lag with good hands. You should win majority.
 
vinnie

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I suppose my question and the whole point of this post is How do you compare the combos he could have that beat me with the high River bluff frequency? If I always look at the combos that beat me and not look at the hands I beat, I will have to always fold.

You aren't just looking at combos that beat you, you're looking at the combos of hands that make that bet, raise, or call on the river. Three-handed at micro-stakes live games, a river raise is almost never a bluff. I would assign the probability of both these players bluffing to be less than 1%. It is small enough, in this spot, to assume you are up against value hands. In a normal spot, against someone who is aggressive and willing to bluff rivers, I go with a 10% bluff percentage.

Let's look at a 66% range:
[22+
A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s
A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T6o+,97o+,86o+,76o]

On the flop, we will continue with any pair and any draw. It is a very loose flop peel. That is 346 combinations:
[AA,QQ-66,44,22,KhKs,5h5c,3d3h,3d3s,3h3s
A4s,A2s,76s,74s,64s,AhKh,AsKs,AdQd,AcQc,KhQh,KsQs,AdJd,AcJc,KhJh,KsJs,QdJd,AdTd,AcTc,KhTh,KsTs,QdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Ac9c,Kh9h,Ks9s,Qd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,Ad8d,Ac8c,Kh8h,Ks8s,Qd8d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,Ad7d,Ac7c,Kh7h,Ks7s,Qd7d,Jd7d,Td7d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,Ac6c,Kh6h,Ks6s,Qd6d,Jd6d,Td6d,9d6d,8d6d,Ah5h,Ac5c,Kh5h,Qh5h,Qc5c,Jh5h,Jc5c,Th5h,Tc5c,9h5h,9c5c,8h5h,8c5c,7h5h,7c5c,6h5h,6c5c,Kh4h,Ks4s,Qd4d,Jd4d,Td4d,9d4d,8d4d,5h4h,5c4c,Ad3d,Ah3h,As3s,Kh3h,Ks3s,Qd3d,Qh3h,Qs3s,Jd3d,Jh3h,Js3s,Td3d,Th3h,Ts3s,Kh2h,Ks2s,Qd2d,Jd2d,Td2d
A4o,A2o,76o,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs,AsKh,AcKh,AcKs,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,AhQd,AsQd,AcQd,AdJh,AdJs,AdJc,AhJd,AsJd,AcJd,AdTh,AdTs,AdTc,AhTd,AsTd,AcTd,Ad9h,Ad9s,Ad9c,Ah9d,As9d,Ac9d,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ah8d,As8d,Ac8d,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ah7d,As7d,Ac7d,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad6c,Ah6d,As6d,Ac6d,Ad5h,Ad5c,Ah5c,As5h,As5c,Ac5h,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ah3d,Ah3s,As3d,As3h,Ac3d,Ac3h,Ac3s,KhQd,KhQs,KhQc,KsQd,KsQh,KsQc,KhJd,KhJs,KhJc,KsJd,KsJh,KsJc,KhTd,KhTs,KhTc,KsTd,KsTh,KsTc,Kh9d,Kh9s,Kh9c,Ks9d,Ks9h,Ks9c,Kh8d,Kh8s,Kh8c,Ks8d,Ks8h,Ks8c,Kh7d,Kh7s,Kh7c,Ks7d,Ks7h,Ks7c,Kh6d,Kh6s,Kh6c,Ks6d,Ks6h,Ks6c,Kh5c,Ks5h,Ks5c,Kh4d,Kh4s,Kh4c,Ks4d,Ks4h,Ks4c,Kh3d,Kh3s,Ks3d,Ks3h,Kh2d,Kh2s,Kh2c,Ks2d,Ks2h,Ks2c,Qd5h,Qd5c,Qh5c,Qs5h,Qs5c,Qc5h]

The turn doesn't do anything to narrow the range. Now, we're going to assume a 5% bluff (which is high 3-way), and that our opponent will bet any two pair (KK33+) or better.

We beat:
Bluffs: 17 combos
Two pairs: 72 combos

We tie:
KK55: 4 combos

We get beaten:
Quads: 1 combo
Full houses: 9 combos
Flushes: 36 combos
Trips: 10 combos
Two pair: 12 combos

These are 163 combinations. That's more than half the hands that get to the river. It's pretty insane. I think it is overly optimistic, since it had hands like K2o raising on the river. Most of those two pair combos shouldn't be raising. The only ones might be AK, KQ, KJ, or KT. That removes 40 combos that we beat.

You'll note that these ranges both have us winning about 40-50% of the time, which means we might have pot odds to call. But, we're just being too loose with our ranges. Against a bet, I think we can call. Against a bet and a call, I thing we probably can still call. Against a bet and a raise, I think the range just has almost no 2-pair hands, and is almost all trips or better. In that case, we're less than 20% even with them bluffing 5% of the time.
 
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Daithi

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You aren't just looking at combos that beat you, you're looking at the combos of hands that make that bet, raise, or call on the river.
Right, but at the same time you must consider combos that are pure bluff as well included with that.

Three-handed at micro-stakes live games, a river raise is almost never a bluff. I would assign the probability of both these players bluffing to be less than 1%.
I apologise but that's just untrue. You seem to have the online-poker-is-same-as-all-poker mindset. The number 1% you have provided may be true online, which I doubt, where everyone is multitabling and technically just plays the cards. This game is a completely different dynamic. These players want action, they are inebriated, hands/hour are low. They play most things and bluff the river. This guy did. He took massive amount of pots without showdown and showed the bluffs. He was doing it every 3-5 minutes. That is not 1% more like 50%.

Another point, the less players in the game, the more bluffs — not the other way around. Look at Full Ring vs 6max. The action is bigger at 6max. Why? Fewer players. The fewer the players, the worse cards you must play. The worse cards you play, the more you must bluff.


Right, to the nitty gritty stuff. First of all thanks for taking the time and effort replying. I appreciate that. Just in case I come across as if I don't.
Now....this guy said he plays any 2 suited cards. Actually, that is not how he put it. Someone else at the table mentioned suited small cards and he was like "What? You have to play them; they all can make flush!" I have of course seen him playing non-suited too. That was where there was 7 of us.

I absolutely guarantee you, 3 handed he plays literally everything. Anyway with this range I have constructed I am doing him a massive favour because his range was a lot bigger.

I have put in all diamond unpaired hole cards; all pairs; all that have a draw on the flop. Felt like including a hand 7-2 as they love the hand there in the local, but I didn't. Against this range I hold 65% equity on the River.

[22+, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Kd7d, Qd7d, Jd7d, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, Jd6d, Td6d, 9d6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, Kd5d, Qd5d, Jd5d, Td5d, 9d5d, 8d5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, Kd4d, Qd4d, Jd4d, Td4d, 9d4d, 8d4d, 7d4d, 6d4d, 5d4d, Ad3d, Kd3d, Qd3d, Jd3d, Td3d, 9d3d, 8d3d, 7d3d, 6d3d, 5d3d, 4d3d, Ad2d, Kd2d, Qd2d, Jd2d, Td2d, 9d2d, 8d2d, 7d2d, 6d2d, 5d2d, 4d2d, 3d2d, A4o, A2o, 76o, 64o, 42o]

If I change the suited diamonds to all 4 suits, I get 79.9% Eq. This guy had planned already on the turn that he will bluff the river, he just got lucky and got the trips.

But anyway it isn't all about him, namely how to deal with players of his sort mathematically at the table. Regardless if you are right or I am, how the f.. can you process all those ranges at the table. Unless you have the mind of Gary Kasparov:joyman:
 
vinnie

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River bets and river raises are different things. I have played a lot of live games, including short handed micro games with 3-5 people. I have played with drunkards and crazy LAGs. River raises with 3 players, on that board, are never worse than trips. Even a drunk lagtard knows that this board is not good for bluffing.

My range included way more complete air bluffs (5%) than I normally would, and also value-bluffs (those hands like K7o and other KK33 hands with bad kickers). Really, those hands should be calling or checking. Your range includes more air than is reasonable. If you want to justify a bad call, you can keep adding air until it looks good, but if you really track these hands then you will find that they show up without air way more than your range suggests.

On the third hand, if this game is truly as loose aggressive on the river, as you suggest, then you still don't need to call here. Why are you taking marginal edges when you can wait for the much bigger edges these players will be offering? There are a lot of hands that back into value on this board, and a good players makes money by not paying them off. If you are never bluffed in a game like you describe, you are calling way too much.

As for how you feel with these ranges, in a live game, you break down the types of hands that raise into categories and then determine how likely each category is based on how it played out. With enough work off the table, after hands constructing ranges and looking at river spots, you get a feel for how much of a players range makes sense for each category.

You could look at the numbers from your range and get percentages for each sort of hand. Then you just need to reason which types he is betting and how often they are bluffing. Experience and practice away from the table is how you get good at this on the table.
 
vinnie

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Oh, and there is one other thing which makes your call exceptionally bad. It's not a good call, regardless, because I don't think you're ahead of a raising range on this board often enough. But, it's a worse call because a "Tight Semi-Passive" player has already shown interest and bet on this river, and that player still gets to act. You have to beat both these players, and the tight-semi-passive player could always reraise. It would be a bad call, if you're closing the action, but it's worse when you're trapped in between the players like this.

Edit: I'm sure you will argue that you know this game better than everyone else. And, if that's really the case, then great call. But, I don't think you really understand the river raising ranges completely. At the table, I would estimate this is 70% flushes, 15% boats, and maybe 10% trips with 5% worse. I would noramlly have fewer flushes and more boats and trips except we hold blockers and the trips uses the bottom card on the board. These percentages aren't completely in line with the combo counts above, but it's what I would think against a loose player who can show up with a lot but also can raise this river.
 
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Daithi

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River raises with 3 players, on that board, are never worse than trips. Even a drunk lagtard knows that this board is not good for bluffing.
I hadn't bet or called at that time, he was raising him. He had no idea I was vested in the pot.

P.S. I don't know about your games and pubs. But by the looks of it, your games are a lot better and the booze a lot weaker.

Your range includes more air than is reasonable
For example?

As for how you feel with these ranges, in a live game, you break down the types of hands that raise into categories and then determine how likely each category is based on how it played out. With enough work off the table, after hands constructing ranges and looking at river spots, you get a feel for how much of a players range makes sense for each category.
Thank you.

It's not a good call, regardless, because I don't think you're ahead of a raising range on this board often enough. But, it's a worse call because a "Tight Semi-Passive" player has already shown interest and bet on this river,
I never said it was a great call. I had emphasised multiple times that it was a tough spot considering the tight semi-passive got in the way. However, there are other factors too, which I mentioned previously. The tight kept trying taking pots on the River multiple times throughout the evening by betting half-ish pot, in minority cases it worked without contest. Every time there was a raise by the LAG against him, he always yielded. Nevertheless, he kept trying it over and over like a lab rat doing the same thing over. The LAG were raising and re-raising with air all evening. Yes. I was worried the passive might have a monster and call, but I had a feeling (yes feeling) he had only a pair, well 2 pair in the end, worse than mine. And I was right.

And when I say I would do it again. I mean I would do it against the LAG. If it was heads up and I had bet and he raised, I would have absolutely called it. 3 - way I would have to consider each time, but I admit I'd be more inclined toward not to, than yes. If this hand was played online, I would have folded it no question.

And no Vinnie, I am not gonna argue that I know this game better than everybody else. Why would I be asking here questions then? And no, I have no knowledge of River Raising Ranges.
 
vinnie

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For example?

I just went with the exact range you included in your post. Your raising range includes 36.4% air, and 65.5% when you count hands that can't beat KK33 as air. I think that's just an unreasonable amount of air to assume someone is raising with.

I'm not trying to be a jerk, or anything. I think this is a tougher spot when it's heads-up at the river. I don't know that my games are worse than yours. We played 25c/50c NL dealer's choice games and had $800+ pots from people just shipping with random stuff. This includes someone drunk enough to shove a "Suited pair of Aces!" He had misread his hand and shoved Ac4c. He seriously thought he had a pair and a suited hand. That's the level of drunk we'd get. There would be a lot of loose betting on the river, but raises were much tighter. Tighter than they should be, really, but it was something that was pretty obvious. A raise was always a relatively good hand given the board.

The only thing different, in regards to my games, is none of them were strictly pub games. These were all card-rooms or private poker games. People went to play poker. The drinking was intense, but secondary. No one went to drink and spontaneously decided to also play poker.

Heads up is a different issue. If I know the person well enough, I might bet/call in this spot. I think I prefer check/call, when I know they are bluffing the river a lot. I don't want to bet and have them give up on some of their bluffs. My step-brother is one person where I would go for a bet/call in this spot. As, I know his ranges really well and his raise in this spot contains no flushes, trips, or two pairs. His raise is always full-houses/quads or bluffs. And, he does have a lot more bluffs against me than other players, because he loves getting a bluff through on me. Because his raise is Nuts or Air and there's way more Air than nuts, then I can call him wider.
 
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It's difficult to say fold or call. Everything depends on the situation. The position where you sit and the cards that the table and the cards that you have are also very important.
 
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I think that each hand is player based it deppends who bets and when and it doesnt rly matter what cards comes at the river unlesss ofc it gives u the nuts.
 
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To be honest i'd rather not wait for the river when i have 2 pairs i'd usually bet the flop to chase away flush and streight draws.
 
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