Fold to c bet stats

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davidhoyle107

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So, I have a question about exploiting high fold to cbet stats. Let's assume they have a f cbet of 70% how often should we be c betting this person. We hit the flop about 30% of the time with a pair at least. How often should we throw in bluffs? Would vpip effect our bluff to value ratio? We know they hit a pair about 30 percent of the time also.
 
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AKbadboyAK

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I particularly like cbet in this kind of situations that the player fold 70% of the time to cbet every 10 hands played with him and he calling him fold 7 that's a lot of chips in the long run.
 
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Mathematically, if you're c-betting 60% of pot, you can bet 100% of your hands against a player folding this much. But, a 70% fold to c-bet doesn't mean they fold to 70% of your c-bets or will continue to fold to that many of your c-bets. It might be counter-productive to c-bet every hand, but I would still c-bet more often than usual. If they didn't seem to be adjusting, I would probably get pretty close to 100%.
 
thatguy6793

thatguy6793

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This seems like on of those cases where you should keep doing it till it stops working. If your against him in heads up in a pot throw out a c-bet and see what happens, if he folds you still got him on the ropes it looks like but if he calls or raises then he probably figured you out. Maybe to help confuse him and keep him from catching on don't c-bet every time, throw in a check-raise every few times to really mess with him. The more you can keep someone guessing the more you can keep using a strategy that works imo.
 
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davidhoyle107

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This seems like on of those cases where you should keep doing it till it stops working. If your against him in heads up in a pot throw out a c-bet and see what happens, if he folds you still got him on the ropes it looks like but if he calls or raises then he probably figured you out. Maybe to help confuse him and keep him from catching on don't c-bet every time, throw in a check-raise every few times to really mess with him. The more you can keep someone guessing the more you can keep using a strategy that works imo.

That seems a bad idea. If he's folding 70% cbet, is assume his cbet and af would be insanely low.

If his af is pretty high, this might work as a value bet, but I thought the whole idea of this bluff is to catch someone with a high vpip and af.i guess a low f cbet would be a requirement also.
 
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davidhoyle107

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Mathematically, if you're c-betting 60% of pot, you can bet 100% of your hands against a player folding this much. But, a 70% fold to c-bet doesn't mean they fold to 70% of your c-bets or will continue to fold to that many of your c-bets. It might be counter-productive to c-bet every hand, but I would still c-bet more often than usual. If they didn't seem to be adjusting, I would probably get pretty close to 100%.
This is kind of what I've been doing. I always check other stats like their aggression and stuff. Some people are hyper aggressive but fold to raises. Others just check. The aggs I just let them raise and wait for a good hand knowing I can call.
 
Diegol

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If he folds 70% of the times against my cbet in a good number of hands, lets say at least 1k hands i think i should cbet all my hands and if he's not adjusting his game i will make a lot of money just from stealing pots
 
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davidhoyle107

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If he folds 70% of the times against my cbet in a good number of hands, lets say at least 1k hands i think i should cbet all my hands and if he's not adjusting his game i will make a lot of money just from stealing pots

Agreed. But at what point will he start adjusting? If he adjusts, how many value bets should I be making in comparison to bluffs?
 
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