flush draw strategy

Hey guys I was wondering how often you would normally hit your flush draw after the flop. For example:

You are playing heads up with a guy with even stacks. You have two clubs and a flop come ace (Club) king (Club) and queen (Diamond) You dont have a pair or anything other than a flush draw. The guy goes all in.

Do I call? what are the odds I hit?

You're roughly a 60/40 dog here (through the river), assuming Villain has a made hand (i.e., at least a pair), you didn't pair the board, and Villain doesn't have a better flush draw.

Whether you call or not would depend on stack sizes and the size of the pot on the flop before betting starts - if the pot is large enough because of pf action, calling may be the correct move - the pot needs to be laying you better odds than your dog status (i.e., you need to make more money than even up if you're only going to win 40% of the time).

The easiest way to calculate your odds is the 4:2 rule. With two cards to come multiply your outs by 4 to get your % chance of winning. With one card to come multiply by 2.

In this case you have 9 outs, the flush cards. We multiply 9 * 4 = 36%

We have a little over 1/3 equity, so we need to be getting just under 2:1 to break even. If we are being laid 2:1 or better then we should call. If we are getting less than 2:1 we should likely fold.

man the math will always deem you to fold but if your in a gambling mood you could get lucky ...ive seen it youve seen it..but uif your seriously trying to win id fold..in a heads up match..wait and opick your spots..

three3y3 said:

man the math will always deem you to fold

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Not if you're being laid 2:1 or better

three3y3 said:

man the math will always deem you to fold but if your in a gambling mood you could get lucky ...ive seen it youve seen it..but uif your seriously trying to win id fold..in a heads up match..wait and opick your spots..

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Your opponent has 100 chips, you have 100 chips, and there's 100 chips in the pot.

To entice your fold, your opponent has shown that he has flopped the nuts, JT, no cards of your suit, no flush draw possible.

(Or you could just have an insane read on him).

There are 9 remaining clubs in the deck. You have a slightly better than 2% chance that each of those cards will come on each street - if my brain is working, you know the location of 7 of the 52 cards. So 9/45 you get it on the turn, and 9/44 you get it on the river.

You could round that up to about 40%, because your poker math doesn't have to be exact.

So in the above stack sample, you are getting 2:1 on your money to call. I forgot exactly how to work pot odds, but for a 2:1 call, you have to have a 33% or better chance iirc. (I'm used to calculating outs, not comparing it to pots... Guess I should get my brain back where it needs to be...)

As it is, you could call this bet 100 times, and you would end up being ahead 700 chips every 100 times you ran it.

Someone verify? I think that's correct-ish.

Of course, if the stacks were 2000, 2000, and the pot had . . . I dunno . . . 100 in it, that changes things. But I'd imagine somewhere around 2000 to call all your chips off, and the pot had 3000 it already, you'd be getting about the right odds to call. Ergh. I need to read up on pot odds. I get the concept and the math, but I'm off somewhere. Rust on the gears.

Mase31683 said:

The easiest way to calculate your odds is the 4:2 rule. With two cards to come multiply your outs by 4 to get your % chance of winning. With one card to come multiply by 2.

In this case you have 9 outs, the flush cards. We multiply 9 * 4 = 36%

We have a little over 1/3 equity, so we need to be getting just under 2:1 to break even. If we are being laid 2:1 or better then we should call. If we are getting less than 2:1 we should likely fold.

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I think that calculating by the rule of 4 and 2 is based on the situation/opponent.

If you are against an opponent where you know you won't face an additional turn bet, then using the rule of 4 is good. However, an aggressive opponent might charge you heavily to draw on both streets, which changes the actual pot odds you are getting.

So, if I know I'm against someone who will fire again on the turn, I like somewhere from 3:1 (with implied odds) or 4:1. This is because you are about 20% on each street.

Don't make the mistake of calling with 2:1 on the flop against opponents who will charge you on the turn. You will be leaking a lot of chips chasing those draws.

Of course, like EVERYTHING in poker, it all depends. But, what I've said above is a general idea of how I approach draws.

Note, this is for JUST a FD only. When you have big draws, like OESFD, FD with a pair, ISFD, etc., the odds change because now you have greater than 40% equity in most cases and sometimes a favorite. In these situations, where I might be a favorite, I'll call any bet or even raise all in.