re: Poker & flush draw strategy
Originally Posted by three3y3
man the math will always deem you to fold but if your in a gambling mood you could get lucky ...ive seen it youve seen it..but uif your seriously trying to win id fold..in a heads up match..wait and opick your spots..
Your opponent has 100 chips, you have 100 chips, and there's 100 chips in the pot.
To entice your fold, your opponent has shown that he has flopped the nuts, JT, no cards of your suit, no flush draw possible.
(Or you could just have an insane read on him).
There are 9 remaining clubs in the deck. You have a slightly better than 2% chance that each of those cards will come on each street - if my brain is working, you know the location of 7 of the 52 cards. So 9/45 you get it on the turn, and 9/44 you get it on the river.
You could round that up to about 40%, because your poker math doesn't have to be exact.
So in the above stack sample, you are getting 2:1 on your money to call. I forgot exactly how to work pot odds
, but for a 2:1 call, you have to have a 33% or better chance iirc. (I'm used to calculating outs, not comparing it to pots... Guess I should get my brain back where it needs to be...)
As it is, you could call this bet 100 times, and you would end up being ahead 700 chips every 100 times you ran it.
Someone verify? I think that's correct-ish.
Of course, if the stacks were 2000, 2000, and the pot had . . . I dunno . . . 100 in it, that changes things. But I'd imagine somewhere around 2000 to call all your chips off, and the pot had 3000 it already, you'd be getting about the right odds to call. Ergh. I need to read up on pot odds. I get the concept and the math, but I'm off somewhere. Rust on the gears.