Flopping the nuts 1/2 NL 200 Effective

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mikeisthebestever

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Simple question about a hand I played earlier -

UTG +1 Raise to 7, 5 callers, I call with 3h3d on the button.


Flop 8c 3c 8s


UTG +1 bets 15, 2 callers, cutoff makes it 50.


In this specific situation I was 200 effective with the cutoff. There is around 120 in dead money in the pot right now. I decide to shove over the top, he is never folding an 8 here and I would prefer to take down the dead money or run it heads up as opposed to allowing pocket pairs behind me to draw out bigger full houses.


The major downside to this play is that I may have folded out hands I had dominated behind me like flush draws.


A short stack MP player calls and the cutoff calls.


Turn 7h, River Kc


MP mucks, CO turns over Kd8d for a rivered bigger full house.


My question about this hand is : When I have the opportunity to get all of the money in as an 80%+/- favorite, is it always right to do so?


I guess my real question is: Is it better for me in the long run for him to call with 20% equity, or to fold him out and pick up the dead money? [Assuming we are deeper and/or he has the ability to fold]


If he wins 1 of 5 times -200 [I get stacked]
If I win 4 of 5 times + 1200 [I stack him + dead money]
If he folds 5 of 5 times +500


Is there any argument for playing one way vs the other? Just a matter of personal preference with regards to how you want to deal with variance?
 
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MattJM68

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Simple question about a hand I played earlier -

UTG +1 Raise to 7, 5 callers, I call with 3h3d on the button.


Flop 8c 3c 8s


UTG +1 bets 15, 2 callers, cutoff makes it 50.


In this specific situation I was 200 effective with the cutoff. There is around 120 in dead money in the pot right now. I decide to shove over the top, he is never folding an 8 here and I would prefer to take down the dead money or run it heads up as opposed to allowing pocket pairs behind me to draw out bigger full houses.


The major downside to this play is that I may have folded out hands I had dominated behind me like flush draws.


A short stack MP player calls and the cutoff calls.


Turn 7h, River Kc


MP mucks, CO turns over Kd8d for a rivered bigger full house.


My question about this hand is : When I have the opportunity to get all of the money in as an 80%+/- favorite, is it always right to do so?


I guess my real question is: Is it better for me in the long run for him to call with 20% equity, or to fold him out and pick up the dead money? [Assuming we are deeper and/or he has the ability to fold]


If he wins 1 of 5 times -200 [I get stacked]
If I win 4 of 5 times + 1200 [I stack him + dead money]
If he folds 5 of 5 times +500


Is there any argument for playing one way vs the other? Just a matter of personal preference with regards to how you want to deal with variance?



On this flop you can only get value from 8's 99+ and flush draws. And i don't see him folding much of that to a shove so I think it's a fine play, don't worry about overpairs hitting full houses as they have 2 outs, not worth stressing about.


Personally I like to do a very small raise back to the opponent and give them no option as they will either shove over me and we get it in, or they call because they are getting great odds and will be getting great odds for the turn shove. I think this ensures you get it in against his whole value range which is what you want.


If you were deeper you may want to allow him to hit his draws cheaply and get it in vs flushes.


Unlucky with the K8.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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Yes it is better for you if they call. You do not want your opponent to fold their 20% equity unless they have so little behind that they have the odds to play and folding would be a mistake. Being deeper means nothing, the deeper you are the worse their call is. You can see by your numbers (which aren't quite right but are close enough) that you profit more when they call than when they fold.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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Cold deck there bad luck hard to fold 33 or K8 on 883 flop better luck in future but should try to keep flush draw in if flop house
 
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