facing 3b on turn Q high flush paired board

pokeherface said:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 96 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 114.5 BB (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
Hero (BB): 104.5 BB
UTG: 161 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
MP: 243 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
CO: 127 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh 4h
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 2s 2h Kh
SB bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (15 BB, 2 players) Jh



SB bets 11 BB, Hero raises to 29 BB, SB raises to 107 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68 BB and is all-in

River : (209 BB, 2 players) Tc

a little unsure about this Hand if I can put him on any. single hearts what can I put him on because if theres more AXo than Axs were ahead I think Ah, Jx Ah, K. we can put him on
but then again he can't be doing this thinking he's going to make me fold because he is 3b shoving over a raise
and his thinking might be to shove to get flushes to call

yes this is 2nl but can It really be that a reg is doing this at this level as a semi bluff

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eetenor said:

Thank you for posting.

First at this level players do not value $2. Therefore their lines can be all over the place.

We must use the data we have to compare it to a norm. Then figure out our villains possible reasoning.

1: HUD data suggest TAG player. 51 hands so this is not 100% reliable.

2: Vill raise 3bb What is the norm for your game? What is the norm for a TAG? What range would that indicate?

3: Flop K22 Vill leads 3/4 pot on semi dry board is this large for a TAG? Would KK or A2 bet less to try to get a call? AK KQ expect you to call that size? What might a TAG with JJ do on that flop? How about AhXh? AhKx?

4 Turn brings the most obvious draw. No one ever misses seeing the 3 flush that is the norm. When sober
So TAG vill bets 11 when the most obvious draw gets there? Is that how your TAG vill normally play? You raise to 29 is that normal, that size? Pot 55 call 18: 3-1 not the right odds for Ah Kx to call so is it shove or fold for a TAG at this level?
Ah2x does have the odds to call so maybe we raise a little bigger on that turn? I think it shoves as well.
They are seldom doing the math correctly.

5 We call what do we see on the river? KK 22 hoping you would call flop, knowing you will call turn.
JJ-AhXh hoping you will fold flop. I don't know why either. Knowing you will call the turn shove.

AhKx betting for value on flop? Bluffing the turn? It is amazing how vill will adjust their thinking from I know they will call to, they should fold to this bet under the exact same board textures.

Hope this helps.



Quote and reply if you have questions

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pokeherface said:

first off all this Is a tag regular the database is a new one and something happened where its only showing the new database hands

stats on this villain is
RFI :21/ RFI:18 3B:5
500 hands
(some of these stats are a little out as I have. played some hands with him since that time)


I think its resonably easy to guess what he's betting flop with (All combos of hearts he would be raising from sb only hands with a two in are K2s J2s by that I mean only hearts
then all suited connectors as low as 45s all off suit broadways with a heart and pairs from TTs And 22's ofcourse
all Ax with heart K6o+

my only. real question is here is what he would be 3betting the turn with here? would you consider all Ax with pairs and flush draws draws to be doing this I think thats what makes the Hand a call or not I know were getting good odds to call but can't call against only KK JJ K2 22 and all Ax of hearts

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eetenor said:

Thanks for responding.

No one can give you a direct answer. The villain may be on tilt. The villain may think you fold too much. The villain may think you never fold. All of which effects the villains lines.

To be clear if I thought you could not fold I would shove 300 bb on that turn with 22.
If I thought you would fold a flush to the same bet I would bluff you with that bet.

We try to find clues to help us understand the villains thinking. That is why I asked all the questions. Was there a clue buried in your observations that tell you villain had more bluffs than they should? Or no bluffs at all?

When you are making all-in decisions it is not about x range based on the board run out alone. Villains make mistakes. What mistake is this villain making? Expecting too many calls or being too aggressive with a weaker hand expecting a fold?

At this level most villains expect to get called but that does not mean villain is not betting A2 all-in as a semi bluff full house draw. Few villains value this amount of money so they seldom fear going all in with strange lines.

Poker is about never being 100% sure. Often you will see the pros lose pots when rec players take weird lines. The pros just make a note and move on. This is one of those cases. Call make a note and move on. You will never be able to put villain on all possible hand combos here. Do not drive yourself crazy trying to do the impossible.


Hope this helps

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abwil2 said:

what was the result of the hand or am i just missing it?

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pokeherface said:

Ok so you think I should be making a note and moving on here knowing what he’s capable or not capable of ? Without really looking into it for future situations

I think it would be a sick bet if you was to jam here turn with out at least a flush after i check raise turn and I don’t think it would be a profitable one either
I think initially he can have no bluffs at all only called because price was 2/1 25% so any bluffs at all can mean it’s possible we’re ahead and leaning towards some Ah Jx and Ah kx now
I’ve answered almost all your questions now please tell me what you think instead of giving me questions that “will drive us crazy trying to do the impossible “

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eetenor said:

Have your friends read how you ended this post and ask them if they were me would they respond well to that demand.

no more help

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