re: Poker & Exploiting your opponents errors.
Originally Posted by Steveg1976
I should add that I am trying to put words in Stu's mouth, this is just what I took away from the post, right or wrong as I might be.
No you seem to be thinking about it in the same way that I was.
I can see why Zach advocates bet bet bet.. the equity error that our opponent makes is larger when we are correct. But we increase our own errors the times that we are wrong (and no poker player is ever 100% right).
If we are correct often then bet bet bet will cause him to make larger errors more quickly so our payoff is bigger. But at the same time, if our opponent is making these errors far more often than we are, then is there really a need to risk more chips on a single hand in order to exploit him? Surely if we can put him in a situation where just about every choice he makes is wrong, and we can do that often, then we reduce our own variance by sacrificing some equity.
As a side note, by betting big on each round, we do give him at least one correct and easy choice.. that being to fold!!!
Part of what I was trying to do was to put some figure on our chips to the size of his error. What this showed was that the only bet that was really causing him to make a large error was the 3/4 pot bet. The half pot bet gave him incorrect odds, but didnt induce much of an error. The error is also bigger on later streets as the pot is bigger, so by sacrificing a smaller error on the flop, we induced a larger error on the turn at a lower cost (chips) to ourselves. I supose you could say that it reduces varience!