Exploiting the BB's ability to fold IP

[Deceitful_Frank]

Hello people.

Tonights thread will be an attempt to put together some ranges to steal the BB from the SB when everyone else at the table has folded.

I have run some reports to figure the average FoldBBtoSBsteal% for 4 PFR ranges at 10NL 6max. They are as follows.

11-14=71%
14-19=64%
19-25=55%
25-33=41%

Now, my standard bet to steal the BB from the SB is 35c.

I am risking 3 bb (since I already have 0.5 committed) to win 1.5 bb. I need to be successful >75% of the time to show an immediate profit (which means I could in theory C/F every time I miss or even auto fold if called and still profit instantly).

^^^^^^^^ Before we continue... this is right so far?

So I know how often they need to fold for me to break even and just show an immediate profit in this spot.

Can someone help me to figure out the range % I should be playing in order to profit against the 11-14 PFR guy who folds to this steal 71% of times?

 

[pokerman27]

Just out of interest why do you correlate their tendency to call your steal with their PFR as opposed to their VPIP or CPFR?

 

[Deceitful_Frank]

Good call!

Could be laziness on my part as I had already put together some 20 charts for cold calling on the button and blinds vs the four PFR ranges you see above from opening from UTG, MP, CO and B... plus also a very tight 8-11% range. I just reused the player stats reports I had plugged in to PT3 without considering that VPIP would be a far better gauge of general looseness or tightness.

Thanks for pointing this out!

Assuming that I take the time to divide up those VPIP ranges and get the average fold to steal %s for each one, could you help me put together those 4-5 sets of default steal from the SB ranges?

I know that you play FR but do you have strategies for exploiting the different BB's tendancies to fold to aggression from the SB?

 

[Deceitful_Frank]

OK I have divided villians in to 4 VPIP ranges:
1) VPIP up to 16, villians average an 80% fold BB to steal from the SB.
2) VPIP range from 16-22, villians average 72.6% fold BB to steal from the SB.
3) VPIP range from 22-29, villians average 64.2% fold bb to steal from the SB.
4) VPIP range from 29-38, villians average 55.5% fold BB to steal from the SB.