Originally Posted by ChuckTs
any would help i'm not looking for specific ex's but rather just any in general to better understand the concept of EV
and p.s. the first post was fine and actually really helped - would raising a flush draw on the flop be +EV? also how would you factor in still having the turn to act on with EV?
Regarding raising on the flop as a +EV move: Generally speaking, whenever you raise for value
it has to be because your hand has a higher-than-average equity (sorry, Rob!) compared to the other hands that would call - and a hand can have an above-average equity despite being only a "drawing hand." The prime example would be, say,
on a board of J♥10♥2♣
. There are so many cards that will give you a winning hand by the river even if you're still behind (at least 8, likely 15, and maybe 21 outs) that if you have more than two opponents who will call, a raise here will give you long term winnings. Look at it this way:
If you have a flushdraw on the flop, and you have 9 clean outs to hit your flush (by "clean" is usually meant that if you hit your flush, you're guaranteed to win - you can discount your outs a bit if you suspect that someone else may hit a full house or a higher flush, but that's not the topic for today), then you're ~35% chance to hit your flush by the river. Conversely, you have 35% equity in this hand on the flop. Or, put differently again, you will win 35% of all the bets that go in on the flop. If you have two opponents that will call you, then you will bet, let's say, $1 and they will each pay $1 as well. $3 went in on the flop, of which you're expected to win 0.35*1 = $1.05. You've shown a 5 cent profit. Note that you have to have at least two opponents for this to be worth it.
There are some tactical drawbacks to raising the flop with a flushdraw, however, and although this was primarily a discussion about EV, let's have a look at it anyway:
Anyone who has read Small Stakes Hold 'em by Ed Miller is likely to have picked up that raising with strong draws on the flop is +EV - but that's strictly mathematically speaking. Often, raising on the flop will increase your profit on the flop
but will severely hurt your implied odds for when you actually hit your flush. Look at this scenario:
You have QTs, and your opponents holds KJ and AJ, let's say. The flop comes
J-9-3, two of your suit. You have an open-ended straightdraw, and a flush draw. You're on the button, and the first player - with AJ - bets. The second player raises. Should you 3-bet?
Well, clearly you have a +EV decision if you 3-bet here. Your equity in this pot is well over the 33% you need (as you have around 14 outs, if none of the other hands hold your suits), but is it a good way to make money? Not necessarily.
If you raise, the other two will get suspicious of a set or two pair. If you just call, it's possible that the first player will 3-bet and take back control of the hand - what will then happen if you hit your monster on the turn?
He will bet out again, the second player will call (most likely) and then you can raise - hitting them for another BB each! If you raise the flop, you're unlikely to be bet into on the turn, so your implied odds for when you do hit your hand will likely go way down. However, it's worth noting that if you do 3-bet the flop, you can probably go for a free card on the turn if you don't hit your hand there, which is nice. But specifically when people say that you raise for value with a draw on the flop, this may not be a good situation to do it. Consider first how the later streets will play out if you raise now, and make the best decision.
If this had been a flop with several callers who like to "peel the flop" for one small bet but are likely to fold on the turn unimproved, then raising the flop is a good play, though.
as for the second, I understood the math fine, and can't see why it came out wrong for you
I don't have time to check it again now, but I'm not sure my math is wrong - I was just surprised by the result.
Thanks for the help Freddie - i appreciate you taking your spare time to write this out for me and the others who are reading this
My pleasure! Keep in mind that I have selfish reasons for writing this as well; doing the calculations teaches me stuff as I go along - and I think I learned yesterday that semibluff betting/raising the turn in a 5.5BB pot is a bad idea.