+EV play from the Small Blind

B

byrnsiey330

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Assumptions:
-Facing a button limper w/ a VPIP of 50+
-The BB is Super passive and will only call w/ very good hands which we
will not CBet, and the most we will lose is our 4BB.
- 100% Cbet from us if called by the button
- If our Cbet is called and we don't have anything we are giving up.
- Our Cbet is 1/2 pot


Explaining the Math:
When it comes to our any two cards we have 27% equity against the range
we assigned to our opponent that he will call w/. The most BB we can
win are 19BB (9.5 in the pot preflop, and 19BB after post flop betting)
but I think that only happens around 20 percent of the time, that is
why I multiply our 19BB winnings by .2 and us taking down the pot of 9.5BB
w/ our cbet 80% of the time. I then added those weighted BB's together and
found the average.

All the other math is pretty self explanatory.

Button Raises 1BB
Hero ReRaises 4BB
BB Folds

Fold Equity:

Button Limp 50% of hands
Will Call w/ 15% of hands

Folds 92%

92% of the time .92*2.5BB= +2.3BB

Calls 8% of the time

8% of the time

Hand Range: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

Any Two Cards:

27% Equity against that range

.27%*9.5BB= .675BB* .80= .54BB* .08= .16BB
.27%*19BB= 5.13BB* .20= 1.026BB* .08= .08BB

Average BB Won: .12BB

73% * 8.7BB= 6.4BB*.08= -.5BB

BB Calls w/ 7% of hands
.07*4BB= -.28

Ev: +1.30


Just wondering if my math/logic is flawed or if this is a +EV play w/ any two cards
according to the math..
 
LD1977

LD1977

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1) BTN limpers are not the type to fold 92%
2) He has position so if he binks something on the flop you are not going to move him off his hand easily - how many hands can you double/triple barrel?
3) The whole equity calculation is only OK if you go AI preflop
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Folds 92%

92% of the time .92*2.5BB= +2.3BB

Calls 8% of the time

8% of the time

Hand Range: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

People that play with a VPIP of 50 are not folding 92% of the time against 3 bets from the blinds. Most people are aware that button raises get 3 bet light against a button open and are willing to call light with position. Also if you say they fold 92% of hands why is their hand range so wide? He will call with K10o but not 66? Does not really make sense to me.
 
John A

John A

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I haven't gone over the math, but a lot of the assumptions are pretty far off. Folding 92%, a c-bet working 80% are both pretty bad assumptions.
 
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