+EV play from the Small Blind
-Facing a button limper w/ a VPIP of 50+
-The BB is Super passive and will only call w/ very good hands which we
will not CBet, and the most we will lose is our 4BB.
- 100% Cbet from us if called by the button
- If our Cbet is called and we don't have anything we are giving up.
- Our Cbet is 1/2 pot
Explaining the Math:
When it comes to our any two cards we have 27% equity against the range
we assigned to our opponent that he will call w/. The most BB we can
win are 19BB (9.5 in the pot preflop, and 19BB after post flop betting)
but I think that only happens around 20 percent of the time, that is
why I multiply our 19BB winnings by .2 and us taking down the pot of 9.5BB
w/ our cbet 80% of the time. I then added those weighted BB's together and
found the average.
All the other math is pretty self explanatory.
Button Raises 1BB
Hero ReRaises 4BB
Button Limp 50% of hands
Will Call w/ 15% of hands
92% of the time .92*2.5BB= +2.3BB
Calls 8% of the time
8% of the time
Hand Range: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Any Two Cards:
27% Equity against that range
.27%*9.5BB= .675BB* .80= .54BB* .08= .16BB
.27%*19BB= 5.13BB* .20= 1.026BB* .08= .08BB
Average BB Won: .12BB
73% * 8.7BB= 6.4BB*.08= -.5BB
BB Calls w/ 7% of hands
Just wondering if my math/logic is flawed or if this is a +EV play w/ any two cards
according to the math..