Equity Here Is Really Close?

Sean Pilgrim said:

Hero's Dealt: Ac Ad 80%
Villain Dealt: Kc Ks 20%

Flop: Hero Equity: 84% Villain Equity: 15%
Qd Jd Td

Turn: Hero Equity: 44% Villain Equity: 55%
As

With One Card to Come Do You Call if Villain shoves on the turn?

1 Ace Left for Quads
1 Kh to Tie
9 Outs to pair the board (Qshc, Jshc, Tshc)
8 Outs for Nut Flush (2d, 3d, 4d, 5d, 6d, 7d, 8d, Kd)

We Have 19 outs.

We need to dodge: 2shc, 3shc, 4shc, 5shc, 6shc, 7shc, 8shc, 9shcd

(25 Cards)

Can we ever justify calling a shove here knowing Villain may potentially have KxKd?

We need 1 of 19 cards to hit and need to avoid 25 remaining in the deck.

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Stu_Ungar said:

Yes because unless stacks are absurdly large we will be getting a favourable price to call.

The 44% equity that our hand has includes the times he has Kd so the fact that he potentially has it dosent matter, unless you know from additional information that the player would not continue without Kd, of course at that point it shifts from a potential to a certainty that he has it. Realistically you probably wont know an opponent well enough to be certain that he holds Kd so we have 44% equity in the hand and I am sure we will have invested more than 12% of the effective stack by the turn so we are correct to call.

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Stu_Ungar said:

Yes because unless stacks are absurdly large we will be getting a favourable price to call.

The 44% equity that our hand has includes the times he has Kd so the fact that he potentially has it dosent matter, unless you know from additional information that the player would not continue without Kd, of course at that point it shifts from a potential to a certainty that he has it. Realistically you probably wont know an opponent well enough to be certain that he holds Kd so we have 44% equity in the hand and I am sure we will have invested more than 12% of the effective stack by the turn so we are correct to call.

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dcor said:

stu, where did you get the 12%?

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Weregoat said:

Let's suppose our villain shoves and we're in a live cash game. I am going to say something like "Yup, that's a trouble card for me." And show him my set of aces. If the villain wants me to fold, he'll show me at least one K. Assuming I have a miraculous read on our villain here (or he showed me both his kings - which would be unwise, why not just show one - if he knows that folding is the incorrect play for me) and I work the math according to Stu and our Equity calculator - I'm pretty sure it's call here.

We are looking at a 3-5 bet preflop, somewhere between 2-3 bets on the flop, depending on situation - I'd expect most of our stacks to be in by the turn, unless you're looking at SUUUUUPER deep stacked play.

Playing this had not knowing my villains whole cards - with a gutshot to the str8 flush, a bunch of cards to the nut flush, and 10 cards to make a full house or quads - I couldn't justify folding here. I just have too many outs. Our villain would have to have flopped a Str8 Flush to have me drawing thin enough to fold - and when that happens I'm either drawing to one out or dead, depending on which end he caught it on.

If that's the case you've gotta pay him, but since it happens so rarely, I wouldn't even consider it a possibility, and get my money in. (Plus, are we looking at a 3-4 bet pot preflopo with Kd9d or 9d8d? I think not.

@ Dinoroxx - in a cash game, this should be a call. I'd understand thinking about it if you were playing for large effective stacks, but since you're practicing proper BRM a loss here won't take you out of the game, just cost you your stack and force you to buy-in again. Our villain's put a ton of his money into the pot bad so far, now he's got the nuts due to luck, we're going to call here and hope to make a better nut hand.

Good post SP.

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