re: Poker & Equity Here Is Really Close?
Let's suppose our villain shoves and we're in a live cash game. I am going to say something like "Yup, that's a trouble card for me." And show him my set of aces. If the villain wants me to fold, he'll show me at least one K. Assuming I have a miraculous read on our villain here (or he showed me both his kings - which would be unwise, why not just show one - if he knows that folding is the incorrect play for me) and I work the math according to Stu and our Equity calculator - I'm pretty sure it's call here.
We are looking at a 3-5 bet preflop, somewhere between 2-3 bets on the flop, depending on situation - I'd expect most of our stacks to be in by the turn, unless you're looking at SUUUUUPER deep stacked play.
Playing this had not knowing my villains whole cards - with a gutshot to the str8 flush, a bunch of cards to the nut flush, and 10 cards to make a full house or quads - I couldn't justify folding here. I just have too many outs. Our villain would have to have flopped a Str8 Flush to have me drawing thin enough to fold - and when that happens I'm either drawing to one out or dead, depending on which end he caught it on.
If that's the case you've gotta pay him, but since it happens so rarely, I wouldn't even consider it a possibility, and get my money in. (Plus, are we looking at a 3-4 bet pot preflopo with Kd9d or 9d8d? I think not.
@ Dinoroxx - in a cash game, this should be a call. I'd understand thinking about it if you were playing for large effective stacks, but since you're practicing proper BRM a loss here won't take you out of the game, just cost you your stack and force you to buy-in again. Our villain's put a ton of his money into the pot bad so far, now he's got the nuts due to luck, we're going to call here and hope to make a better nut hand.
Good post SP.