Equity

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Skaplun

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equity is a point or a dot in time, on a flat line or whatever metaphor you'd care to use. Now in every point on that line the # representing your equity is different, at times higher and at times lower. We try to make plays based on our equity, and we all know that correct plays are even termed +ev. if you are not +ev then you are -ev. Now I have played with the idea a bit and have stumbled upon a nice little notion. What if we evaluate our current holding against villains possible range and whenever we come to the conclusion that we are over 50% in the hand we shove? Poker is highly psychological and we can make many terrible plays based on human error but EV calculation in Unl is extremely easy.
once you have more than 12 outs on the flop you are +ev. Whenever you are holding AT+ 99+ you are +ev. this needs to be perfected and thought out more thoroughly but I am opening this up for discussion. This would obviously mean playing short stacked because 100bb +ev is much more complicated than 20bb.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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Because when you've got over 50% equity you usually want to extract value, not give them a chance to fold.

Also, 50% equity against what? His current range? The range he'd have after calling our standard value bets to showdown, or the range he'd have if he called a shove?

We try to make plays based on our equity, and we all know that correct plays are even termed +ev. if you are not +ev then you are -ev.
The greatest evil of online poker is neutral EV. Situations where range vs range, neither of you is going to make a mistake. These situations deserve mention in a raked game.
 
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Skaplun

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well consider our poker game. we have 4 streets of play but only for 1 street has anyone ever successfully written an equilibrium. there are optimal shoving hands prf and i suggest we look at them.
lets split them into 2 categories: broadway and 99- pps. the second category is far more complicated to play postflop and yet it still has over 50% equity vrs any range, this is a mathematical certainty so I suggest we shove those hands prf.
The first category and we'll treat ATs+ KJs+ TT+ can be played post flop and I suggest this should be done. HOWEVER though flop play is not charted it is still a rather simple street. to flop a flush or a straight is a 1% chance, flopping a set is a 10% chance and most big pot poker hands have the same low precentages. NOW, where do we fumble the ball? human error. I suggest playing a 2 street game, with a shove on the flop with our superior starting hands. we may lose equity by not playing and extracting but we also gain equity by not succumbing to human error.
This low showdown poker might actually reduce variance on one hand and induce many many mistakes certainly on the other (some calling our shoves too light, some folding far too much.)
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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By shoving anything that's got more than 50% equity, your range when you don't shove is really weak.

Also, I agree that there are times when we want to reduce the number of streets. Pre-flop decisions in EP are frequently based on this, lower the SPR so you can get stacks in on the flop or turn, it reduces the advantage of skill (and since you're greatly handicapped OOP, this is a good thing).
The same sollution applies frequently on the turn when IP, although there you tend to check to eliminate the complexities of an extra street (it's very difficult to over estimate how much more complicated problems become as we add streets), although this is rarer because we have the skill edge (we're IP). - Edit: By eliminating a street, I'm referring to not giving your opponent an action. If you bet or raise, the hand gets much more complicated than if you check or call.
Making the game more simple is bad for most situations, you can win by exploiting a skill advantage. Simplifying it is bad. As an example, you have potential to make more money with 100bb stacks than 20bb, and even more at 200bb.

HOWEVER though flop play is not charted it is still a rather simple street.
The flop is also not by any stretch of the imagination, simple. The stack sizes relative to the pot are a major factor here (SPR tends to be high) and ranges are relatively wide.
Also if you screw up on the flop, the effect tends to get bigger as the hand progresses. Miss a value bet? The pot size is crippled as are your turn and river bet sizes. Get their floating habbits wrong? Value town yourself, or forfeit the entire pot.
 
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