Early position preflop folds indicate higher probability of strength in late position

i was over at http://www.dailyhandquiz.com/ and looking at the question "Weak hand in the SB, final table of NL MTT" (weak hand is Q8o). one guy commented, "This is not a raise-fold or call-fold situation. I want to send a message to the short stack that he’s going out if he calls & misses. Pokerstove indicates this is a advantage situation 54:46 and the pot odds (dead money) are right to take this shot vs. the bb." i agree with him that that is the correct move, but a thought occurred to me. because four players have folded before me, can that indicate that there is a slightly higher chance that he is holding a better hand than a random hand, as was calculated on pokerstove (because those four players likely had junky cards, or at least you can say that they didn't hold good cards, which would increase the big blinds likelyhood of holding good cards)? of course, even if you do assume this, it would only be a slight difference...but is it possible to correctly assume that? this would especially apply to a full ring tournament type game, where, for example, 7 players before you, in the SB, have folded.

I understand what you're saying, but don't understand your question. Does what make a difference in whether or not you'll do what? That said, I wouldn't make an assumption about what the BB could be holding. In early position, I will always fold high cards if accompanied by garbage.

my question is does many people folding before you allow you to assume a slight increase in the hand strength of people going after you (especially when you are in late position and many people have folded)? and yes, i understand that you fold high cards w/ garbage. but what if this was a loose game where people often called with those types of hands? then wouldn't you be able to assume?

can that indicate that there is a slightly higher chance that he is holding a better hand than a random hand, as was calculated on pokerstove (because those four players likely had junky cards, or at least you can say that they didn't hold good cards, which would increase the big blinds likelyhood of holding good cards

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In a word NO

You can say that the BB might play weaker cards as ony you, the SB is left in the hand and he will have position on you post flop.

I want to send a message to the short stack that he’s going out if he calls & misses

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Are you actually deepstacked? A deep stack should have 100+.. 150+ BB most people are not playing tournaments where they actually become deepstacked at any stage.. Many start you off in a short stack position anyway.

This is a mistake unless the short-stack is a donk.

If he is a decent player then he will play only good cards.. so you will loose to him.

If you have a chip lead.. why risk any portion of it to eliminate a player? If you have say 25% of the chips on the final table, then you have a 25% chance of winning, why risk it?

If you are shortstacked and have say 5% of the chips then you have much less of a chance of winning.

This means that when a bigger stack makes ANY mistake, it is a bigger mistake than a shorter stack making the same mistake.

So if the short stack is a donk.. he will get eliminated anyway by you playing as normal. If he is decent then he will get eliminated by people being more selective with their hands.

At this point, with 7 folders before the SB, there are 1.5 BB in the pot.. is this worth the risk? I dont know as I dont know your chip stack.. his chip stack and the blinds..

Well in reality it does make a bit of a percentage change regarding whether or not the BB would have a good hand. There's a much higher percentage that the folds ahead of you were either 2 weak cards, or a weak card and strong card, and much less chance that it was 2 strong cards. There is a slightly higher chance of the BB holding 2 high cards, but not significant enough to worry about.

spranger said:

Well in reality it does make a bit of a percentage change regarding whether or not the BB would have a good hand. There's a much higher percentage that the folds ahead of you were either 2 weak cards, or a weak card and strong card, and much less chance that it was 2 strong cards. There is a slightly higher chance of the BB holding 2 high cards, but not significant enough to worry about.

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but i think that that slight chance can have an effect on the decisions you make when your holdings are marginal, because the decision to fold, call, or push becomes marginal, but maybe that slight marginal difference can make you correctly fold?

Are you actually deepstacked?

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did you look at the situation on the website? it's a tournament. you seem to be talking as if it's a cash game...

did you look at the situation on the website? it's a tournament. you seem to be talking as if it's a cash game...

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No the page wont load,

I am speaking like its a cash game, because the situation dosnt change that much, the point is that in a tournament you are unlikely to have the chips to spare to loosen up in this way.

If the guy is shortstacked then you are offering him huge implied odds by attacking him in this way. He would be correct to call you with pretty much any two high cards and any made pair. As its a tournament he is playing correctly by doing this.. he has such a small chance of winning that its correct for him to be reckless.

You, on the otherhand are not getting sufficient odds for plays like this as the stacks are not deep enough. He is getting virtually 2:1 (double up) pot odds on a near coin flip.. its correct for him to play this.

You however, are not getting the same odds because you cannot double up.

Reminds me of something someone told me in a live tournament once - I was in late position with an early raiser and 2 callers before me. I looked down to see a 57 and dumped it. I showed the folder next to me (it was a friendly low stakes game) and he told me I should have played it - the other players had all the high cards taken so I actually had the best odds of catching something.

Sounds like this guy and your guy are simply looking to justify doing what their gut tells them to do.

Stu_Ungar said:

No the page wont load,

I am speaking like its a cash game, because the situation dosnt change that much, the point is that in a tournament you are unlikely to have the chips to spare to loosen up in this way.

If the guy is shortstacked then you are offering him huge implied odds by attacking him in this way. He would be correct to call you with pretty much any two high cards and any made pair. As its a tournament he is playing correctly by doing this.. he has such a small chance of winning that its correct for him to be reckless.

You, on the otherhand are not getting sufficient odds for plays like this as the stacks are not deep enough. He is getting virtually 2:1 (double up) pot odds on a near coin flip.. its correct for him to play this.

You however, are not getting the same odds because you cannot double up.

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ok ok, but this isn't the point of this thread. the question is...well, it's the pole. it's not whether you should fold or shove.

There are many, many situations in MTTs where you should shove ATC from the SB into the BB. When the BB is this shortstacked, then it is pretty much automatic. Debating whether to do it with Q8o is practically slowrolling.

Regarding the question, yes, I think it makes a slight difference if everyone in front of you folds.

Let's say that the seven people in front of you mostly had low cards, with the occasional junkie hand like K4 or J2 or Q6. So out of 14 cards, 11 of them were small, and three were large. And you have Q8. That means, out of the 36 cards remaining, there are 16 broadways still out there. That's a pretty good combination that the BB can draw from to have a good-looking hand or high pair.

In another scenario, where there are three people in the pot before you, let's say they all have sexy face cards and one player folded K8 and another folded A3, and you hold Q8 in the SB. That means the BB can only draw 11 facecards out of 36, a fairly significantly lower chance that he'll have a big hand.

Reducto said:

Reminds me of something someone told me in a live tournament once - I was in late position with an early raiser and 2 callers before me. I looked down to see a 57 and dumped it. I showed the folder next to me (it was a friendly low stakes game) and he told me I should have played it - the other players had all the high cards taken so I actually had the best odds of catching something.

Sounds like this guy and your guy are simply looking to justify doing what their gut tells them to do.

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There is some validity to this but I think it holds true more in omaha than in HE. If there is a raise in EP and three people call, you can usually guess that most of those 16 cards are higher than 9. That means that your 6653 in the BB has a pretty significantly higher chance of flopping well.

ok ok, but this isn't the point of this thread. the question is...well, it's the pole. it's not whether you should fold or shove.

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No probs, sorry I have to admit it was very late last night when I read this post and I had a fair few drinks by then.

The answer i gave before is still what I think is true, but ill rephrease it a bit more for this situation.

Is there a likelyhood that the BB will hold better cards because of all of the folds?

Again NO, it has been mentioned before in the thread.. you do not know what cards the others have folded, they may have folded all of the aces, kings etc, etc.. you just dont know.

Now for the second part..

Does it mean that the short stack has bad cards? (logically if somethingis true its inverse would be false, and vise versa)

This is the thing I was driving at yesterday.. The strength of the short stack's hand is the lowest factor that will influence his play.

He is getting very desperate. If he pays a couple of blinds and then doubles up, he wont be that further forward than he is now. His chances of winning are very slim.

But if he is to have any chance of winnning he mustdouble up a couple of times and he must do that very soon.

So he will play all premium hands (ok no brainer there)

He will also play any heads up situation, because random cards hold up better heads up than in a multiway pot.

The chances of him winning, at this point, are less than him cracking aces a couple of times. In order to get back in he is therefore correct to gamble .. (like crack aces a couple of times).. he has probably lost anyway.. this is the only hope he has (and its slim).

So if he is correct to play any two cards he likes the look of heads up, then this is one of those situations as it is only SB v's BB.

So I was bringing up the idea that when faced with a shortstack, infomation regarding his hand strength is not that valuable, as the correct play for him is to get his money in a heads up situation regardless. So if you rasise him in all in, he will call and if you make a standard raise, he will go - all in... thus exploiting the last bit of fold equity he has.

The origional poll is designed to answer the queston, do these previous folders, in some way, give me an edge?

Slanksy says that everytime your opponent plays as though he could see your cards, he gains an advantage. Well the situation here is the key factor.. he is looking for a heads up situation and you are proposing playing less than premium cards against someone who is correct to play any heads up situation.

I am saying statistically no you cannot infer either strength or weakness from previous folds.

However, faced with a shortstack.. the shortstaack wants you to bet, he want to get in a heads up situation. Therefore his position and the previous folds indicate that he will play with strength regardless of his cards. So you should play this situation as though the shortstack held strong cards. There will be a showdown. And even if you win (and you very likely will) the shortstack will be swimming in sklansky bucks after this hand.

I should amend my previous statement. It's not that BB is THAT shortstacked, it's that the two stack sizes are precisely the right size to exert maximum pressure on him while he probably still has hopes of moving up.

He's one double-up from moving into fourth, plus he has the "luxury" of the big stack on his left. The big stack's calling range is likely wide, so if he ever wakes up with a monster he has a good shot. If I have a tight image I'm shoving top 70%.