Are downswings and variance avoidable?

Mikeisanace777

Mikeisanace777

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A simple question is there any way to speculate like the stock market based on x amount of hands you've played when future beats will start to happen,
 
8bod8

8bod8

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If avoidable, it means you know what combination of cards is coming (at least with some probability).

The last one that managed that I read about was Phil Ivy, but it was called cheating (he asked a casino to play with a specific brand of cards, the casino accepted ; the cards backs were not all identical, nothing Phil had done, but gave him an edge).
 
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gabethegimp

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Not really - In the end just playing solid poker is the only way to be successful.

With that said there are ways to minimize your exposure to it, but it's very tight play and generally you end up losing more money than you'll win. You have to give action to get action. If people know you're a rock and only play premiums, you will never get paid off. So yeah.
 
Mikeisanace777

Mikeisanace777

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Sort of more like regardless of the cards you are dealt a losing hand run will occur. I've studied this in limit and found cyclical variations of 2.5 hands as the winning hand per 22 hands so it ranges as 12 to 15% as a total. If you've played 3,000 hands and experienced a higher variation then it's plausible the standard 12% will start to deviate to it's median in other words a downswing maybe there is a computer sim to achieve better long-term calculations?


I have a personal time-based theory that involves theoretical hands you would have played but instead did not, therefore, allowing you to simulate mathematically downswings and maybe reenter any game with high expectations bases on this 12% model.
 
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braveslice

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If you find a time cycle that suggest you play too long. It’s quite common that players play too long and when tired you cannot play A game anymore, but slowly shifts from A to D game. When you play D game variance is huge, if you are not very good even B game variance due mistakes is huge.

Nit style is good way to reduce variance.
 
3betfish

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You can avoid downswings and variance through the investment (not a legal suggestion or recommendation) of U.S. Treasury Bills.

In regards to poker, nope nope nope nope nope.
 
Peppinotom

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I don't think so. I tried some investigations as well, but it is just like this:
I have days, where I can't even survive level 2 in each and every tournament and out of a sudden, I make FT at a tournament, where I have never won before.
Or I run good in lots of small tournaments and the bigger ones just fade away.
I am fine now with accepting downswings and bad luck as a part of the game.
Poker would be soooo boring if you win all the time, wouldn't it?:D
Instead of wasting time for deep calculations on that, you'd better help an old lady over the street, maybe the universe gives you sth back.
 
IamVALHALLA

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I wish they were, I've suffered a few massive downswings lately that have driven me to the point where I basically shout at my screen that I'm clearly being cheated.

But then I close the poker client and politely remind myself that I'm not being cheated, I'm just an idiot fish who isn't as good as he thinks he is.
 
lsbenn

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I see my downswings happen most often when I have played too long. Playing tired is a very unsuccessful journey!!! I have to remind myself there is tomorrow to play again.
 
Edison A

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are lessons from the poker school, it's inevitable!
 
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RakeMyLife

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Certainly not (gambler's fallacy to think otherwise), but game selection can absolutely minimize variance. In my opinion (and with some support from stats I think), most to least variance among popular games:

-PLO (6-max)
-PLO (FR)

Hold Em (NL)
-Tournament (Heads up/Freezeout)
-Tournament (Turbo)
-Tournament (Regular)
-Heads up Cash
-6-max Rush/Zoom Cash
-6-max Regular Cash
-Full Ring Cash

*I don't think the Zoom/Regular discrepancy is numerical/statistical as much as psychological.

Of course, playing style can minimize variance too (more LAG-more variance, more TAG-less variance).
 
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NHequalsFU

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Downswings and variance are not avoidable. Everyone that plays poker over a period of time will experience both ends of the spectrum.

The key is to assure yourself you are just running bad and not playing bad. Usually people start playing bad because they are running bad.


You seriously have to have the mental state of a robot. But we are human and emotions come into play which makes us do things to make the downswing longer or the variance greater.


Taking a break from the game is best unless you are doing it for a living. I have no advice for that since I only play recreationally.
 
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Fastone2

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I usually need to stop playing for a brief time, to stop the flow of low cards an bad beats...
 
hugh blair

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nah nothing you can do about downswing AA all in preflop AJ call you flop JJ4 you lose no getting away from it.
 
ingybingy

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A simple question is there any way to speculate like the stock market based on x amount of hands you've played when future beats will start to happen,
How would it be possible to predict the likelihood of variance???
 
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westgolfer

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what is the acr freeroll password
 
wagon596

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My answer would be no. It's just part of playing poker. You can control how much it affects your bankroll.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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Downswings and variance in poker are completely avoidable.....If you don't play.
 
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SeriousBizzness

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not really. its all based on random card theory. but sometimes i run into players like myself and they start to feel themselves a little too much. and when that happens you know that they will tend to have a heavy foot and drive too fast. or bet too much.
 
Mikeisanace777

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Based on my time theory

How would it be possible to predict the likelihood of variance???



I have tested this with video poker and have found it to be more true than not to dial in some predictability. When I play bonus poker the quads hit every 412 hands on average within the rng algorithm of any machine, Now I tested this at home and timed it with a stopwatch, It takes me 3 min to play 50 hands on average. After I hit quads I then wait in blocks like 9 minutes speculating hand 150 and play 3 min figuring hand 200,then wait 6 min play for one minute then wait another 2 minutes and roll from there negating the hands I play in between in hopes to hit again and it often does look here.


Now with casino poker live it uses an rng in the shuffle master so it's like video poker just millions times slower. However if you figure and know that in a 60 day period you play x amount of hands that would have occurred say 1,000 and based on the 12-15% hit frequency of win rate being more like in the 32% from the previous 2,000 hands then it's fair to speculate that the median will deviate to it true 12% by dipping in the 4% range hence downswing!


It should eventually float to it's true number but in the meantime your experiencing variance until it does unless you wait it out because the cards are always flowing even when your not playing it's a never ending story.

The cycle for quads in this 1600 hand pc sim was 300.00




"Frugal Video Poker" - Copyright 2000 - 2010, Wolf Gaming Software
Review Session:1, Game:Bonus Poker Deluxe, Player:Computer




5 Credit Ret: 98.49%
1-4 Credit Ret: 97.37%

Hands Played: 1200
Credits Bet: 6000
Credits Won: 6370
+/- Credits: 370
%Return: 106.17%

Double Down
+/- Credits: 0
+/- (DD+ VP) Credits: 370

Time Played: NA
Hands/Hour: NA

ER Possible: 6508.53
ER Achieved: 6508.53
ER Accuracy: 100.00%
# of Errors: 0
% Correct: 100.00%
(0-5%) 0
(5-25%) 0
( > 25%) 0

Poker Hand Payoff Appeared Winnings Freq. Cycle % of Return Last Hand
ROYAL FLUSH 4000 0
FOUR of a KIND 400 4 1600 0.33% 300.0 25.12% 1130
STRAIGHT FLUSH 250 0
FULL HOUSE 40 13 520 1.08% 92.3 8.16% 1187
FLUSH 30 16 480 1.33% 75.0 7.54% 1198
STRAIGHT 20 9 180 0.75% 133.3 2.83% 872
THREE of a KIND 15 113 1695 9.42% 10.6 26.61% 1200
TWO PAIR 5 154 770 12.83% 7.8 12.09% 1199
JACKS or BETTER 5 225 1125 18.75% 5.3 17.66% 1197
GARBAGE 0 666 55.50% 1.8 1196
 

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Vilgeoforc

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You will know when the downswing begins. What are you going to do? Withdraw all the money? Stop playing?Will you be super careful? Here the main question is not when, but HOW. How will you get out of downswing? Even if you know the time of the recession, which I doubt, you are not exempt from overcoming the recession.
 
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