Based on my time theory
How would it be possible to predict the likelihood of variance???
I have tested this with video poker and have found it to be more true than not to dial in some predictability. When I play bonus poker the quads hit every 412 hands on average within the rng algorithm of any machine, Now I tested this at home and timed it with a stopwatch, It takes me 3 min to play 50 hands on average. After I hit quads I then wait in blocks like 9 minutes speculating hand 150 and play 3 min figuring hand 200,then wait 6 min play for one minute then wait another 2 minutes and roll from there negating the hands I play in between in hopes to hit again and it often does look here.
Now with casino poker live it uses an rng in the shuffle master so it's like video poker just millions times slower. However if you figure and know that in a 60 day period you play x amount of hands that would have occurred say 1,000 and based on the 12-15% hit frequency of win rate being more like in the 32% from the previous 2,000 hands then it's fair to speculate that the median will deviate to it true 12% by dipping in the 4% range hence downswing!
It should eventually float to it's true number but in the meantime your experiencing variance until it does unless you wait it out because the cards are always flowing even when your not playing it's a never ending story.
The cycle for quads in this 1600 hand pc sim was 300.00
"Frugal Video Poker" - Copyright 2000 - 2010, Wolf Gaming Software
Review Session:1, Game:Bonus Poker Deluxe, Player:Computer
5 Credit Ret: 98.49%
1-4 Credit Ret: 97.37%
Hands Played: 1200
Credits Bet: 6000
Credits Won: 6370
+/- Credits: 370
%Return: 106.17%
Double Down
+/- Credits: 0
+/- (DD+ VP) Credits: 370
Time Played: NA
Hands/Hour: NA
ER Possible: 6508.53
ER Achieved: 6508.53
ER Accuracy: 100.00%
# of Errors: 0
% Correct: 100.00%
(0-5%) 0
(5-25%) 0
( > 25%) 0
Poker Hand Payoff Appeared Winnings Freq. Cycle % of Return Last Hand
ROYAL FLUSH 4000 0
FOUR of a KIND 400 4 1600 0.33% 300.0 25.12% 1130
STRAIGHT FLUSH 250 0
FULL HOUSE 40 13 520 1.08% 92.3 8.16% 1187
FLUSH 30 16 480 1.33% 75.0 7.54% 1198
STRAIGHT 20 9 180 0.75% 133.3 2.83% 872
THREE of a KIND 15 113 1695 9.42% 10.6 26.61% 1200
TWO PAIR 5 154 770 12.83% 7.8 12.09% 1199
JACKS or BETTER 5 225 1125 18.75% 5.3 17.66% 1197
GARBAGE 0 666 55.50% 1.8 1196