Downswings

How many sessions with a bad run of cards is considered a downswing? I play live 1-2NLHE and occasionally 2-5NLHE live at the local poker room. I've had four straight sessions where it's nothing but rags. I lost an all in with nut flush and villain's two pair filled up on the river and had aces cracked on the turn after all in post flop. I have been pretty good at stealing blinds and orphan pots and occasionally bluffing to take a good sized pot so I'm still up over the course of these four sessions, but only $75.
Perhaps it's not a downswing at all since I've been able to grind out a meager profit, but I have had horrible starting hands and if I happen to get a marginal hand...I whiff on the flop.
Been playing regularly for about a year...but only 10-25 hours a week and have built a bankroll up to $8K.
How many sessions can I expect to get terrible cards on average before it turns again?
Thanks

There is no such thing as a downswing where you are UP money

That happens but believe me, four sessions is nothing yet. No one knows how long those downswings last. It might end tomorrow or three months later. There is no way of telling that so the only way to figure that out is just to grind it out. Downswings can however be mentally challenging so sometimes a short break might do the trick or at least keep your mind fresh. The most important thing is to keep playing your A-game and have patience. Better days are ahead, good luck!

SickBoy777 said:

How many sessions with a bad run of cards is considered a downswing? I play live 1-2NLHE and occasionally 2-5NLHE live at the local poker room. I've had four straight sessions where it's nothing but rags. I lost an all in with nut flush and villain's two pair filled up on the river and had aces cracked on the turn after all in post flop. I have been pretty good at stealing blinds and orphan pots and occasionally bluffing to take a good sized pot so I'm still up over the course of these four sessions, but only $75.
Perhaps it's not a downswing at all since I've been able to grind out a meager profit, but I have had horrible starting hands and if I happen to get a marginal hand...I whiff on the flop.
Been playing regularly for about a year...but only 10-25 hours a week and have built a bankroll up to $8K.
How many sessions can I expect to get terrible cards on average before it turns again?
Thanks

Click to expand...

It seems to me that you are just bragging about how good of a player you are, rather than asking a genuine question about downswings... However, i seriously doubt that you have 8K in your bankroll and consider making a profit of $75 a downswing, it just doesn't add up. Most likely you are a big time loser who has just joined this site for the freerolls and is taking advantage of being new here to make himself look like the player he wants to become, not the player he is right now.

You know @titiduru there is twoplustwo if you like to be mean.

titiduru said:

It seems to me that you are just bragging about how good of a player you are, rather than asking a genuine question about downswings... However, i seriously doubt that you have 8K in your bankroll and consider making a profit of $75 a downswing, it just doesn't add up. Most likely you are a big time loser who has just joined this site for the freerolls and is taking advantage of being new here to make himself look like the player he wants to become, not the player he is right now.

Click to expand...

I don't have time for free rolls and I don't play poker online at all. I like to see who I'm playing and study them...that's how I pick up whether I can bluff or steal a pot nobody wants to fight for.
I'm not too experienced in playing as I've only been doing it part time for a year, though I would like to play a lot more when my kids are older.
The downswing I was experiencing didn't have to do with profit or loss as much as it had to do with constantly getting inferior hole cards or whiffing on the rare occasions I got something decent.
I started my bankroll with $2K..now it's at $7500 after another session of rags and a bad beat Friday night.
Whether you believe that is irrelevant. I have no interest in propping myself up to a bunch of faceless strangers. Was just looking for some insight on how long others with more experience have had runs of bad starting hands so I would have an idea of when it would turn around on average.

The same question I ask myself ... I have had weeks where I can not win anything ... I just tell you to be patient and do not fall on tilt ... the good hands will come and you will take advantage of it

Dani_California said:

That happens but believe me, four sessions is nothing yet. No one knows how long those downswings last. It might end tomorrow or three months later. There is no way of telling that so the only way to figure that out is just to grind it out. Downswings can however be mentally challenging so sometimes a short break might do the trick or at least keep your mind fresh. The most important thing is to keep playing your A-game and have patience. Better days are ahead, good luck!

Click to expand...

Thank you Dani for that answer. I didn't think four sessions was an abnormally long streak to get rags, but wanted to get a sense of how long these things can last. And since I play fewer hours than most players on here, I guess 3 months or longer is a definite possibility.
It is mentally challenging to throw away 25 straight hands only to get sucked out on when you finally make a hand, but I've enjoyed great runs with strong cards that held up, making a lot of money. This is just the other side of those sessions.
Good luck to you on the tables as well.

Some estimation, my 2NL zoom career lasted 90k hands, first 30k ok 7.88bb/100, last 60k hands losing, AI adjusted +4.2, measured -1.33, 37BI under EV.

So dry run at least 60k is measured. So if live 25 hands per hour that makes 2400 hours, if 20 hours a week, that’s 120 weeks or 2.2 years.

Let’s hope you are luckier

SickBoy777 said:

Thank you Dani for that answer. I didn't think four sessions was an abnormally long streak to get rags, but wanted to get a sense of how long these things can last. And since I play fewer hours than most players on here, I guess 3 months or longer is a definite possibility.
It is mentally challenging to throw away 25 straight hands only to get sucked out on when you finally make a hand, but I've enjoyed great runs with strong cards that held up, making a lot of money. This is just the other side of those sessions.
Good luck to you on the tables as well.

Click to expand...

I know exactly what you are talking about, I've been there myself too. I have also made many mistakes during downswings and only made things worse by starting to play looser just because I've been losing my mind for not having any playable hands. And that of course leads to disaster. Luckily I have been able to improve my mental game and that has helped me a lot. Now I know the recipe for dealing with downswings even though it is still hard. My longest downswings have probably lasted only two weeks or so but longer ones are definitely possible. So don't yet worry about those four sessions

reg lol, 10-12 hours play every day

braveslice said:

Some estimation, my 2NL zoom career lasted 90k hands, first 30k ok 7.88bb/100, last 60k hands losing, AI adjusted +4.2, measured -1.33, 37BI under EV.

So dry run at least 60k is measured. So if live 25 hands per hour that makes 2400 hours, if 20 hours a week, that’s 120 weeks or 2.2 years.

Let’s hope you are luckier

Click to expand...

I think I'll be long gone from the felt if this were to last over 2 years.
Thank you for that frightening, but accurate analysis.

Well the better player you are the smaller chance there is to have negative winrate. Had I kept my cool even with bad luck I would have been winning.

This is fun tool to play with, a simple and easy variance calculator.
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

IPlay said:

There is no such thing as a downswing where you are UP money

Click to expand...

its hard to be more precise than that.

Start worry when you ACTUALLY lose money.

How much of a downswing you can last of course is depending on your stakes and bankroll. At least 50 buy-in bankroll is a must for serious player.

Doesn't quite add up....I play 1/2 every day and average 40-50 hours a week. Your asking us how long "rags"?? will last where you aren't getting any good starting hands? lol...If you are playing 10-25 hours a week I can certainly assure you that is quite a long time. 25 hours is about 750 hands a week. On average you should be getting dealt Pocket Aces 3 to 4 times in that week.

Any graphs? Any dates? Hours played? Win/Loss amounts? to show that you grind up 2k to 8k? I'm not saying it is impossible or anything but just sounds like either your b'sing or just want some attention....your last question is just plain foolish. How long can you expect to get shitty cards? LOL I mean c'mon now man.