You have 4 cars in your hand, there is 4 cards on the board, this leaves 44 cards in the deck. You have 8 cards that completes your straight, so you have 8/44 chances to get it, which is 18%.
I like your reasoning, but there's other players and dead cards involved making this a more complicated matter
From this website :That 47 magic number is the key, in a 6-max table the actual number of cards left in the deck is 37, as ten other cards have been dealt to the other players but to calculate the odds you're including that as if those cards were still in the deck and the effect is exactly the same. You could calculate it as:
The second formula is equivalent to the first (produces the same results) but it's harder to calculate so we use the first.
- The odds of taking two random cards over a 47 deck with 9 remaining hearts and one being a heart or
- The odds of taking two random cards over a 37 deck with x remaining hearts and one being a heart minus the odds of dealing x hearts when picking 10 random cards when taking x cards from a deck of 47.
I don't take into account the dead cards and the other players cards cause they are dealt randomly. So, after the flop, you see your 4 cards (2 if you play HE) and the 3 cards on the table, so that leaves 45 cards that you don't see. I didn't really now how to explain it in a good way, so I googled it for you :
From this website :
https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/1129/outs-counting-correction
There is nothing different in Omaha than in HE in this, excepts the number of cards in each hands.
Do you think we can use rule 2 and 4?The exact probability would be 8/44 + 8/45 - ( 8/44 * 8/45),
or if you put it in percentage : 0.177 + 0.182 - (0.177*0.182), which is around 33% chance of getting it.
Hopes this is clear
Do you think we can use rule 2 and 4?
Here we would get 8*4 = 32%
You can calculate the error (to add to the result of the x2/x4 rule) with the following formula :
Sweet, I know from who I’m asking math question from now on =D
The calculated error is quite small though, almost too small…
http://i63.tinypic.com/2wqsr41.png