does anyone else have other examples of surprisingly bad spots?

C

CashTaker

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Sep 8, 2014
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This has happened twice to me recently. I flop a set with my pair and decide to slow play it. the turn card makes a 4-straight and naturally one of my opponents makes a straight. Is the redraw to a boat really just 20%? No more than 10 outs with one card to go? that's the same odds as trying to crack AA preflop going all-in!

What other post flop spots have you found to be surprisingly bad?
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
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This is my worst AI loss probability wise, 2 outer on the river. I am very surprised there are no worse cases than this?!

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 47 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 3)
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (MP): 173 BB
CO: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 42)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 16 BB, SB calls 11 BB

Flop: (33 BB, 2 players) Q 8 5
SB checks, Hero bets 16 BB, SB calls 16 BB

Turn: (65 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68 BB

River: (201 BB, 2 players) 9

SB shows 9 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 19%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
Hero mucks A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
SB wins 194 BB
 
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