Originally Posted by Kidsoldja
So this is mainly a hypothetical question, and Ive actually faced a similar situation before playing 1/2 cash. So i want to know what people think about this situation in a ring game and in a tournament. Say you flop a draw and you have 13 outs to hit the draw. You lead out 15 in to a pot of say 30, and then a tag player who only plays big over pairs this way shoves all in over top for 115. The pot odds are terrible you need to call 100 more to win 160. With 13 outs in this spot, do you call, getting a little less then the best of it, with 14 outs do you call. You know this player very well and know hes only making this move with an over pair. My question really is do you chance it, pick a better spot, does it matter to you if its ring or tourney and at what point would you be willing to ship it with those terrible pot odds in on a flop(how many outs would it take for you to be willing to ship it in that spot)
For big pots, big money, you’ve got to have a good hand. Usually you need the best hand when the money goes in. You may outdraw your opponent but if you make the best hand at the last card, you would have the worst hand until that card. You would have to outdraw him to take the pot, and the player who stays on the worst hand, with the hopes of catching a winner, is going to go broke in the long run if he draws into an overpriced pot.
Specifically in your situation with 13 outs you probably have an open-ended plus a pair. That is 8 outs plus five outs makes it 13 outs. In this case scenario if your opponent has AA and you have 8,7 and the flop is 7,9,10, you are 44.5% vs. 53% and 2.5% ties and this the best scenario where your outs doesn’t touch the aces. If on the other hand you would have had KQ that complements the aces and the flop is K,J,T and opponent still has AA then if you hit your kicker Q the opponent makes the nut straight and you’re drawing two outs for a tie. (the remaining aces to put a straight on the board) In this case you are way behind something like: 29.5% vs. 69.9% and 0.6% ties