Do you actually make money in the long run? (+EV)

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champ_mc99

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With regards to pot odds where the odds are usually lower than a third by making the right calculated calls you're likely to lose money in the short term but make more money in the long run.

I'm still at the process of losing money (e.g. I also play with odds odds of 10%). But I've only played about 2-3k hands.

Question is can anyone share experiences of how long they had to lose for before the odds favour and make them money in the long run?
 
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ccres

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With regards to pot odds where the odds are usually lower than a third by making the right calculated calls you're likely to lose money in the short term but make more money in the long run.

I'm still at the process of losing money (e.g. I also play with odds odds of 10%). But I've only played about 2-3k hands.

Question is can anyone share experiences of how long they had to lose for before the odds favour and make them money in the long run?

Hi. It isn't exactly what you're asking but there are various poker variance calculators out there that can kind of give you some perspective on how persistent running above/below EV can be. I forget which ones I've used in the past, but I've goofed around with a couple of them that were very easy to use. If you google search 'Poker Variance Calculator' a bunch of free ones (and some pay ones) will show up in the search. I found the number of hands to be surprisingly large for even modest standard deviations before the probability of being fairly significantly out from the EV line really decreases.
 
playinggameswithu

playinggameswithu

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Scientific HU matches are calculated best of 120K hands
 
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titiduru

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With regards to pot odds where the odds are usually lower than a third by making the right calculated calls you're likely to lose money in the short term but make more money in the long run.

I'm still at the process of losing money (e.g. I also play with odds odds of 10%). But I've only played about 2-3k hands.

Question is can anyone share experiences of how long they had to lose for before the odds favour and make them money in the long run?

For statistics to be accurate you need a very large number of extractions. So make sure you eat a proper diet, exercise, sleep well, don't drink or smoke and so on, because you need to live long enough in order to play the number of hands needed for your pot odds to become profitable.
 
Aaron Soto

Aaron Soto

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3,000 hands of poker is not nearly enough to determine if your a solid winning player. I've played nearly 15,000 to 20,000 hands of 1/2 NL Live at about 700 hours in total. I put down 12,500$ on the felt and have won a total of around 11,990$. So in total I lost around 510$ basically break-even poker after 7 months.

I've paid 3,000 to 4,000$ in rake (best estimate) and have tipped about 2,000-2,500$ in the course of the 7 months.

I would say if I didn't tip or pay the rake I'm one HELL OF A POKER PLAYER :)
 
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MrSamsa

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You have to keep in mind that you need to be accurate in your estimations of villains bluff/value ratios in order to calculate the EV of a pot odds call otherwise you are wasting time. You might never see a return if you misunderstand how tight villain is in certain scenarios.

What I'm trying to say is that the variables are too dynamic for anyone to give you a time frame on whether or not you are going to see a return anytime soon. EV calculations are more of a guide rather than an absolute law of decision making anyways
 
NoPlace4U

NoPlace4U

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You need at least 100k hands to start, 200k+ to be sure because you can have a 100k hands downswing, its very rare but it can happen.
 
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