do these plays seem like variance or badluck?

Pokergambler11

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i played 6max today for about 4 hours. Here are some hands that i think should have won but were busted.

Someone raises
another calls
I call with QJ on the button
I flop Nut straight and there is a flush draw for villain.
villain bets, i shove, he shows 75s and hits the flush on turn

Villain has 15bb i have 70bb (its 888 so i can only buy in for 50bb) he shoves
I call with 10-10
he shows K4o
flop hits trips for me but the flop,turn and river all show diamonds and we split pot


Villain 1 limps
I raised 4bb on button
blind raises me 3x my bet
villain 1 calls
I call
flop is 5s Ad Js
blind checks
villain 1 raises half pot (40c with 50c left in stack)
I shove with $2 stack
blind fold
villain 2 calls and shows AJs

this was only the recent losses in the last hour but there were more before that

It seems when I should win I end up being beat by a river or turn.
Me losing to a two pair was just a bad read by me so I dont mind to have lost that. But My starting hands have been so crap and I have been missing the flop 90% of the time. When I do hit it seems like my amazing hands never win.
Does this sound like a bit of a rough patch, badluck or am I just playing bad? I am playing super tight, I do win alot of small pots but whenever i am getting into a big pot I seem to be rivered, I did turn the free $2 888 bonus into $20 now I'm at $15 so i havent deposited yet
Also I havent hit a single flush with draws for 4 hours.
 
starting_at_the_bottom

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What is the difference between variance and bad luck, in your opinion?
 
detroitjunkie

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these are not very high variance losses, especially hand 3 since we have no idea what your cards were

the loses were not that high value in any hand, since opponent typically had a shorter stack

75 over qj was not that bad of a beat either, 100 over k4 was but you didnt lose much
 
Pokergambler11

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What is the difference between variance and bad luck, in your opinion?

I have no idea, i was just writing this in the moment.

these are not very high variance losses, especially hand 3 since we have no idea what your cards were

the loses were not that high value in any hand, since opponent typically had a shorter stack

75 over qj was not that bad of a beat either, 100 over k4 was but you didnt lose much

sorry i forgot to write hand 3. My cards were AQs

these are not very high variance losses, especially hand 3 since we have no idea what your cards were

the loses were not that high value in any hand, since opponent typically had a shorter stack

75 over qj was not that bad of a beat either, 100 over k4 was but you didnt lose much

this just happened in an hour.

Someone shoved with AK and I call with pocket aces. He hits trip K's on river

I had nutstraight on flop, someone hits full house on river.

It's really starting to annoy me, I'm now down another buyin. I made it to $2 twice and lost it both times because I was rivered after having the nuts
 
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proud2Bwhack

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Poker can treat you that way for a month at a time. It's part of the game. especially after a time of running well that got you up to $20.

The key is to keep playing tight and not tilt, chase, rage, or call too much.
Goodluck.
 
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If you got your money in as a favourite (eg. flopped straight vs flush draw) and lost, then it's obviously just a cooler. Just be happy about the way you played.

this just happened in an hour.

Someone shoved with AK and I call with pocket aces. He hits trip K's on river

I had nutstraight on flop, someone hits full house on river.

It's really starting to annoy me, I'm now down another buyin. I made it to $2 twice and lost it both times because I was rivered after having the nuts

Let me tell you something: losing a buyin is nothing. Losing 5 buyins is nothing. It's normal to have downswings of 15-20 buyins. If you're getting this emotional over losing 1 buyin at 2NL, how would you cope losing 20 buyins at 200NL?

You need to densensitise yourself to variance because you'll encounter it a lot more in the future - at higher stakes, with deeper stacks - and it will hurt you a lot more than this.

You can win your $2 back in just 1-2 hours playing ABC TAG poker at 2NL. Don't let it affect you this much.
 
MattRyder

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All of your examples are just part of the game. You're going to see more bad beats at the lower stakes simply because a lot of players really don't understand poker odds vs. pot odds. They tend to play hands that they shouldn't (ESPECIALLY flush draws). Whenever two or more players do this your odds of winning with the best going-in hand drop quite a bit.

If you find yourself getting annoyed/emotional, take a break. The worse thing that you can do is to continue playing in the middle of streak of bad luck while you are upset. Your bad luck isn't going to magically disappear just because you're in a fighting mood. You're just going to lose more money.
 
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Two6JJ

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Getting your money in good is your goal. You have done that it many cases here. You are not going to win every time you are supposed too. 76% is not 100%. Tilt has only negative EV. Laugh and see what the next hand brings.
 
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I too difficult to cope with such losses, and often has to stay all bankroll. How to deal with it? Still I do not know
 
mbrenneman0

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If you got your money in as a favourite (eg. flopped straight vs flush draw) and lost, then it's obviously just a cooler. Just be happy about the way you played.



Let me tell you something: losing a buyin is nothing. Losing 5 buyins is nothing. It's normal to have downswings of 15-20 buyins. If you're getting this emotional over losing 1 buyin at 2NL, how would you cope losing 20 buyins at 200NL?
No thanks haha. I mean with my bankroll that's hard to imagine a 4k loss, but I do know what its like to loose 20BI at 5NL

All of your examples are just part of the game. You're going to see more bad beats at the lower stakes simply because a lot of players really don't understand poker odds vs. pot odds. They tend to play hands that they shouldn't (ESPECIALLY flush draws). Whenever two or more players do this your odds of winning with the best going-in hand drop quite a bit
Although this does increase variance, their lack of knowledge of odds and outs does increase our overall winrate in the long run if we're playing mathematically correct.
 
luiaguila

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the variance is a very important part of the game all complain when the variance is against one but never when we favors I recommend do their weekly plans as he wants to win is objective and then passing week revise its earnings on what invested and clear check your game too
 
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You should not be playing in a raised pot with QJs
 
billbaffles

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I agree that it sounds like you are talking about the game of poker. I have been playing freerolls and i would try that because you get thick-skinned to people going all-in with nothing and beating AA over and over that you get used to the fact that it is all part of the game. Sometimes it can be upsetting but it is part of the game and what makes it so fun. Ultimately though, it sounds like you are getting your money in good so over time you should win more than you lose but there is the inevitable fact that you could go on a long-term losing streak, its not mathematically correct but it could and does happen to some players.
 
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if your gonna fold jqss ever unless maybe to an all in. you might as well quit trying to make money playing poker. i dont care what any book sais. or math or odds or whatever. you when by hitting hands someone will pay off not by having the best hand pre. unless we are talking all in and even then in my experience its better to go all in with a drawing hand that gets good odds pre rather thatn going all in with aa pre. no one pays off top pair. thats why you keep losing with it but you will almost always pay of every hand from two pair and up if you play your aa too aggressively.
 
Dorugremon

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i played 6max today for about 4 hours. Here are some hands that i think should have won but were busted.

Someone raises
another calls
I call with QJ on the button
I flop Nut straight and there is a flush draw for villain.
villain bets, i shove, he shows 75s and hits the flush on turn

Villain was:
  • Fixed limit player not understanding why this is a bad idea for no-limit play.
  • Fish that draws because his ( 7,5 ) was S00TED!
  • The player had a read on you, and knew you had a flopped straight, therefore it didn't matter how little his flush was as he knew it would be good, and he'd get it paid off.
Flush draws get there 34.71% of the time: better than once in three tries. When flopping the nut straight, it's always better if there's a two-flush on board, as you can make the vill pay to draw with -EV calls. Of course, he's gonna get there sometimes.

Villain has 15bb i have 70bb (its 888 so i can only buy in for 50bb) he shoves
I call with 10-10
he shows K4o
flop hits trips for me but the flop,turn and river all show diamonds and we split pot
Oh well, could'a been worse. :)


Villain 1 limps
I raised 4bb on button
blind raises me 3x my bet
villain 1 calls
I call
flop is 5s Ad Js
blind checks
villain 1 raises half pot (40c with 50c left in stack)
I shove with $2 stack
blind fold
villain 2 calls and shows AJs
Standard for low SPR pot. NBD.

It seems when I should win I end up being beat by a river or turn.
Me losing to a two pair was just a bad read by me so I dont mind to have lost that. But My starting hands have been so crap and I have been missing the flop 90% of the time. When I do hit it seems like my amazing hands never win.

Does this sound like a bit of a rough patch, badluck or am I just playing bad? I am playing super tight, I do win alot of small pots but whenever i am getting into a big pot I seem to be rivered, I did turn the free $2 888 bonus into $20 now I'm at $15 so i havent deposited yet
Also I havent hit a single flush with draws for 4 hours.
If you're getting the money good and they're sucking out, it's just runbad. You miss two out of three flops, so whiffing often is frustrating, but not unexpected. Same for running card dead: it's just variance. Don't compound the problem by going all tilty.
 
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MakeUcryalot

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The difference between bad luck and variance is that variance is expected where bad luck is spontaneous. A bad beat is hole cards AA on an AKK board you and villain turns over QQ and turn and river are QQ. A bad beat is when you were favorite and still lost. None of your hands seem very spectacular as far as not to be expected routinely (#3 didn't even have hole cards). Either way 33 % means it hits 1/3 times so you expect it. I've missed 25 flush draws in one day straight and got hit with every one of villain flush draws, so i feel your pain. That being said, it's poker. Discontinue any kind of belief in "God", release a single manly tear and move on like a champ.
 
Shaetano

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The difference between bad luck and variance is that variance is expected where bad luck is spontaneous.
Variance can also be good luck (mostly it's said in regards to bad luck, but variance applies to upswings as well).

Variance is a measure of the movement up and down ( up and down swings ) going through your bankroll. Variance is not necessarily a measure of how well you play . However, the higher your variance, the wider swings you 'll see in your bankroll. (definition found out there :))
 
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Matthew tudberry

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Standard variance at play. If you want to learn more about variance both up and down try your hand at Pit Limit Omaha
 
jashiggs

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Unlucky. As a few others have suggested. Crack a smile and move on!
 
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