S
Styrofoam
Visionary
Silver Level
as soon as I read the subject to your post i thought to myself, "simply make hte pot odds not favor calling...then hope they call anyways" then i read your question, and You're exhibiting classic results oriented thinking. Evidentally more and more people are calling you with straight draws and flush draws etc, and some are making them and you're losing pots, but thats normal. You're still going to lose ~34% of flushes adn ~25% of straights
anyhow... if you're betting 2/3 pot or even pot sized bets and they're calling you with mediocre draws, then you're definately in better shape than you think you are.
anyhow... if you're betting 2/3 pot or even pot sized bets and they're calling you with mediocre draws, then you're definately in better shape than you think you are.
G
glworden
Visionary
Silver Level
Love your suckouts
If you're making pot-sized bets, you are pricing flush draws and open-end straight draws in. After the flop, the odds of these hands hitting by the river are about 2 to 1 against. So if there is one dollar in the pot and you're raising it by a dollar, that means your opponent has to call your one dollar bet in order to contend for the two dollars in the pot. The two-to-one money odds match the 2/1 drawing odds and justify the call. This is especially so since he has additional implied odds; if he happens to hit, especially on the turn, it could be quite a profitable hand for him.
So to price him OUT of the pot, you should be betting double the pot or more.
And even then, an opponent may fold only if he understands his odds and he's not a crazy maniac who "just has a feeling." Some people keep calling because they just don't know any better, and like the previous poster says, YOU WANT THEM TO MAKE THESE BAD CALLS. If they happen to suck out, those are the dues you pay. Over the long run, your superior odds will hold up and you'll profit from these yahoos.
Be thankful for suckouts. Without them, bad players would have no reason to play and the only surviving opponents would be superior players. So make the right bets, smile and relax when sucked out - because the fall of the cards is the one thing you can't control - and don't go on tilt.
I've also found it a bad idea to play for revenge. Try to exploit your opponents' weaknesses, but don't feel like you have to "get even" or get back at that one player. And if it's all too much, leave the table, take a break or find another table to your liking.
If you're making pot-sized bets, you are pricing flush draws and open-end straight draws in. After the flop, the odds of these hands hitting by the river are about 2 to 1 against. So if there is one dollar in the pot and you're raising it by a dollar, that means your opponent has to call your one dollar bet in order to contend for the two dollars in the pot. The two-to-one money odds match the 2/1 drawing odds and justify the call. This is especially so since he has additional implied odds; if he happens to hit, especially on the turn, it could be quite a profitable hand for him.
So to price him OUT of the pot, you should be betting double the pot or more.
And even then, an opponent may fold only if he understands his odds and he's not a crazy maniac who "just has a feeling." Some people keep calling because they just don't know any better, and like the previous poster says, YOU WANT THEM TO MAKE THESE BAD CALLS. If they happen to suck out, those are the dues you pay. Over the long run, your superior odds will hold up and you'll profit from these yahoos.
Be thankful for suckouts. Without them, bad players would have no reason to play and the only surviving opponents would be superior players. So make the right bets, smile and relax when sucked out - because the fall of the cards is the one thing you can't control - and don't go on tilt.
I've also found it a bad idea to play for revenge. Try to exploit your opponents' weaknesses, but don't feel like you have to "get even" or get back at that one player. And if it's all too much, leave the table, take a break or find another table to your liking.
KyleJRM
Visionary
Silver Level
"If you're making pot-sized bets, you are pricing flush draws and open-end straight draws in. After the flop, the odds of these hands hitting by the river are about 2 to 1 against. So if there is one dollar in the pot and you're raising it by a dollar, that means your opponent has to call your one dollar bet in order to contend for the two dollars in the pot. The two-to-one money odds match the 2/1 drawing odds and justify the call. This is especially so since he has additional implied odds; if he happens to hit, especially on the turn, it could be quite a profitable hand for him."
This is incorrect and bad advice. He may have 2:1 odds of hitting his hand and 2:1 pot odds on that specific call, he does not have 2:1 odds of hitting his hand on the next card, and that is all he is buying when he is calling your bet. He has to assume he will be calling another bet in order to get the fifth card.
"Pot odds" are often misused in this way. If you aren't buying all the remaining cards (i.e. calling an all-in), you don't really have straight pot odds.
This is incorrect and bad advice. He may have 2:1 odds of hitting his hand and 2:1 pot odds on that specific call, he does not have 2:1 odds of hitting his hand on the next card, and that is all he is buying when he is calling your bet. He has to assume he will be calling another bet in order to get the fifth card.
"Pot odds" are often misused in this way. If you aren't buying all the remaining cards (i.e. calling an all-in), you don't really have straight pot odds.
J
James_Shins
Rising Star
Bronze Level
The previous post was correct. You are betting correctly against a draw.
The one thing you should be doing, that I believe you are not, is making a note of the players that call the bets you are making to defend against a draw.
If you bet 2\3s of the pot, defending against a draw, and your opponent incorrectly calls, you should note that they are calling incorrectly and make your bet, next time this situation arises against this player, larger. You should aim to find out the what the largest bet this opponent will call with a draw is, that way you can maximize his mistakes and, thus, your winnings.
It is important to note that the deeper your stack, the better 'implied' odds your opponent is getting. If you have 10,000 deep stacks and your standard 2\3s of the pot raise is about 70, your opponent may be willing and correct to call, knowing that he may stack you if he hits. This is an exaggerated example but it is worthwhile thinking about implied odds and the effect it may have on your opponents calling decisions.
The one thing you should be doing, that I believe you are not, is making a note of the players that call the bets you are making to defend against a draw.
If you bet 2\3s of the pot, defending against a draw, and your opponent incorrectly calls, you should note that they are calling incorrectly and make your bet, next time this situation arises against this player, larger. You should aim to find out the what the largest bet this opponent will call with a draw is, that way you can maximize his mistakes and, thus, your winnings.
It is important to note that the deeper your stack, the better 'implied' odds your opponent is getting. If you have 10,000 deep stacks and your standard 2\3s of the pot raise is about 70, your opponent may be willing and correct to call, knowing that he may stack you if he hits. This is an exaggerated example but it is worthwhile thinking about implied odds and the effect it may have on your opponents calling decisions.
D
Dashir
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Alot of times they are counting 3 or even 6 extra outs for overcards to the board. If you all you have is TPTK, then two over cards is 15 outs and even a pot sized bet is not such a bad call. They also may be planning a steal if a scare card hits and you check the turn.
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
As long as you don't pay them off when they hit, you're fine. But as soon as you pay them off a good amount of your stack when they do hit, you are giving them implied odds. Say they have a flush draw and you bet 2/3 pot. They're getting 2.5:1 and need 28.5% to win. But they only have <20% to hit. They need 4:1 though so if on the river you call a half pot bet when they had the right implied odds to call.
Example: pot = 3 units
turn bet = 2, call makes pot 7. Half pot is 3.5, final pot is 14 if you call.
28% of the time they win 3+2+3.5 = 8.5 units
other 72% they lose 2 (the turn bet they called).
.28*8.5 - 2*.72 = 0.94 so chasing the flush to a 2/3 pot bet if you'll call a half pot bet should they river the flush is +ev.
Example: pot = 3 units
turn bet = 2, call makes pot 7. Half pot is 3.5, final pot is 14 if you call.
28% of the time they win 3+2+3.5 = 8.5 units
other 72% they lose 2 (the turn bet they called).
.28*8.5 - 2*.72 = 0.94 so chasing the flush to a 2/3 pot bet if you'll call a half pot bet should they river the flush is +ev.
G
glworden
Visionary
Silver Level
You are correct that the2:1 odds apply to an all-in situation where you're drawing to the river. But I wouldn't call it bad advice. It might be bad advice to CALL a pot-sized bet with a straight or flush draw, but there are situations where it's correct to MAKE the bet. The guy said he was tired of people making the calls and sucking out. So if foes are consistently calling 2/3 pot bets and you want them to stop, try making bigger bets. And if they're still calling against even worse pot odds, more power to you. That's exactly what you want: opponents who will make bad calls.
If your opponent is mathematically savvy enough to know that he's getting correct odds by calling a 2/3 pot bet, why would you want to give him an even chance? Bet higher to give him an opportunity to fold, and if he doesn't, you are the one making the good eV play, not him.
The poster who said the implied odds pertain only when you call after a hit is correct. But sometimes it's hard to get away from a big hand, and it's hard to know if they do hit something besides the obvious - something like trips or two pair.
So please don't call my opinion "bad advice" when making a pot-sized bet to induce a fold is exactly what this guy was asking about, especially when doing so puts you at a greater mathematical advantage. It would be bad advice to call such a bet, but that's not what I was saying.
G
glworden
Visionary
Silver Level
I agree with what you're saying, but that is NOT what I said. You're twisting what I said and calling it bad advice. And I do understand the difference between odds on the next card and odds to the river.
I'm happy to learn from you and am honestly considering what you're saying, but I think you misunderstand me. I am not at all advocating calling a flop bet with straight pot odds. I would not make that call in a cash game, and only in special circumstances in a tourney. But if this guy is getting opponents to make quick calls and he wants to slow them down, raise the bet. That is my advice. And if, in doing so, you get them to call without the odds, that's all the better.
Also, don't be so worried about the suckouts. That is results-oriented thinking. Be concerned about making correct decisions and plays. If the cards go against you when you've structured an advantage, there's nothing you can do about that.
Is there a magic bet to pot ratio at which a drawing opponent should fold post-flop? I'm not sure what that is and I welcome you to tell me. But if your opponents are playing sub-optimally, then you alter your strategy to take advantage of that.
D
Dayne G.
Rock Star
Silver Level
LOL! All the arguments, etc
Focus on what YOU can control (your decisions, your bets, etc. 2/3 - pot size is good)
What they do after you make your X bet is out of your hands...
YOU CAN'T DISCOURAGE ANYONE FROM DOING ANYTHING!!!!!!!!