re: Poker & Differentiation Practise 2: Flopping a set
He would have 4 outs to beat you - 2 aces and 2 tens, giving him 8% equity on the turn. With 15 bets in the pot, he'd be making a mistake by folding: it costs him 1 bet to win 15 (or 16 if you include implied odds
) so he needs 6.7% equity to call.
If you're in his position though, do you call? If your opponent has a ten, you now only have 2 outs, so the situation changes to only having 4% equity. That would be a tough decision. I suppose you can factor in the possibility of a bluff for an extra few %.