This is a discussion on Defeating Variance? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; I've been playing poker for a while and have been winning 7-10K per month at the 3/6, 4/8, and sometime 10/20 table. I've been winning
I've been playing poker for a while and have been winning 7-10K per month at the 3/6, 4/8, and sometime 10/20 table. I've been winning much more than when I started after countless hours of practice on PokerStars 200/400 play money. I only play Fixed Limit unless it's a tournament because in Colorado NL is not allowed. I also don't play for real money online because it's such a hassle depositing and paying fee to withdraw.
When I started out about 2 and 1/2 years ago, I often win some then lose some not due to variance, but bad play. I play cards out of position, K10 suited in early position, after orbits of card dead. I make bad call such as calling a raise with AQ on a 1010Q Board. Calling the River Bet with KK on a K78910 Board. It sucks after waiting 3-5 orbits for a good hand and you don't want to admit that you just lost, AGAIN! I also found out that chasing an OESD on a 3 suited cards Flop is a bad idea.
What I'm trying to say is that I win a lot more now because I know when to fold to avoid further damage. It's real rare that I'm completely card dead. I can go for 5 orbits without a playable hand or I get a playable hand but the flop don't work out. I usually buy-in 20BB and leave once I'm down 12BB any time during a session.
I find that you can't really loose down 12BB easily unless you are making bad call like the ones I mentioned above. The Blinds can't really take you out in a cash game.
When I first started I usually lose a big pot and win back a big pot and break even. This have nothing to do with variance, but my bad play. Now, I lose a small pot because I fold early when the Flop don't work out. I'm not going to hang onto AA (spades and clubs) when the flop is 678 (hearts). Sometime I'm wrong, but most of the time (9/10) someone who bets does have the goods. People just don't bluff you that much in fixed-limit. Now when I lose, I often lose a small pot and when I win, I usually make a profit.
There are occasional bad beats such everyone checking to me on the BB with 45 and the Board is 678KA and someone have 910. It rarely happens this way. Most often than not there are plenty of reasons for you to fold your losing hand.
Since variance and bad play are not the same thing, can you avoid variance by not playing bad. It have worked for me. I just wanted to know how it have worked for everyone else. Variance is simply "Fate" in Poker and I think as human we can control our "Fate". You shouldn't stand under a collapsing building and you can certainly avoid that unless someone physically forces you.
This, to me, is a perfect example of a Bad Play:
Town Dwan & Doyle Brunson
The guy kept on betting with a pair of King after an Ace hit the Board and his opponent kept on calling. What did he think? The guy was calling with middle pair? Huh? What? He have a perfect reason to fold or at least stop betting, but Tom wants to believe that he still have it good even without at least top pair. What? I played many hands and middle pair or the second highest pair rarely wins. I bare see it happening.
The problem is I see a bunch of players play like this and blame it on bad luck or variance and it's simply themselves being an idiot. Tom could have lost less by checking all the way to showdown and pick up the small pot when Doyle doesn't have anything. This kind of ignorant greed can get you kill. Tom could have saved so much money and wait for a better chance. The example in the video was definitely not variance. It's complete idiotic play. Am I right or wrong?
Let me know what you think about defeating variance and control your "Fate" as a human rather than leaving it in the hand of, what's his face? Oh, Poker God. Everyone will eventually get lucky, but you will only break even if you can't avoid the bad luck.