Decision question

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PotluckXXI

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hosted a home game last week and did pretty well (50% profit), it was a small stakes holdem cash game with .10/.20 blinds and $10 buy-in 6-ring. Only one good player (used to make $500 a month on Full tilt, hasn't played online since Black friday) he's a little LAG and fearless. So I'm button with Q8s clubs and family pot (4 callers no raises pre), getting good odds so I call Flop
Tc9h6c BB bets min, fold, fold when LAG raises All-In, I have him covered but not by much.
Now I have a Q high flush draw 9 outs minus the 9h for 8 outs and any 7 makes a straight for 12 outs giving me approximatley a 48% I'm thinking, what I didn't consider that if my Q pairs I might have the best hand, so 3 outs divide by 2 equals 1.5 outs and changes my draw to 54%.

I think he's got either TP with strong kicker or 2 pairs, I still have BB to act behind me but doesn't really matter with the all-in because we both have him covered.

Should I have folded or called?:confused:
 
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Humps

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You probably have the odds to call since there's already a $1 in the pot and it's about a coin flip.
 
iamhukleberry

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hard to say

alot of ppl hide there strength but i have to agrre u had pot odds so make the call and hope for your way
 
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PotluckXXI

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Yeah, he's a ****** at doing that, forcing you to make a tough decision on a drawing hand. He had a pair of 9's and BB called I had folded, 7 came up on river and would have won. I was more concerned with the fact that I had made a correct decision to fold or not, if I would have counted the Q's I may have called.
 
dd_decker

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Hard to lay it down with that many outs. Hey, it's gambling, and it adds excitement to the home game. Call, no question.
 
bgomez89

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Wow. Stack sizes? Raise sizes?

Raise or fold pre, calling sucks
 
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BlueNowhere

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Snap call. Also you calculated your equity wrong. You have 54.12% of hitting a hand
 
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PotluckXXI

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I used the 4x rule (and discounted the 9c) added the 7's =12x4=48% or 50/50 for simplicity (didn't count Q's until after). I didn't have a calculator so just rounded, even so 48% vs 54.12% isn't a great leap but may have changed my decision.

I was around $17 atm and villain was at about $15, the BB was around $7 or $8. BB raised an $1 pot by 0.20 for a $1.20 pot, villain raised all-in bringing pot to about $16 for a call from me of $15. Still look good to call? I really couldn't say if BB would call if I did.

Didn't raise pre because it's a no-fold'em-hold'em game that goes to showdown 2 out of 3 hands and I wasn't particularly strong but was worth it to call flop from button. Maybe wrong not to raise, idk.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Why are you discounting the 9c? Also in the way you calculated it no J plus no 9c you've counted 7c twice.

15 Outs:

2c, 3c, 4c, 5c, 7c, 9c, Jc, Kc, Ac, Js, Jh, Jd, 7h, 7s, 7d.
 
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PotluckXXI

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shit you are right I counted 7c twice and totally blew the J's, argh! Then I could be remembering it wrong and board was 9,6,5 which would need 7, it would just look weird taking notes at the table and my memory isn't perfect so I can get details wrong.

I discounted the 9c since it pairs board, probably wasn't necessary but was just trying to find a "safe" chance to win, maybe should count it at least 0.5 outs.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Well it depends, if player does this with sets and only sets then it's a fold. Can you construct a range he might pull this with?
 
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PotluckXXI

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I have only played with him twice (and made sure he was on my right), he's very aggressive and is good at making people make tough decisions (he's a cop so maybe he uses that mentality). As far as his range? man idk connected suiters, any pair, A rag, K rag. I haven't seen enough to construct a real range on him, he plays level 3 soalmost ATC is his range atm. I have been able to to read him well on occasion and fold, raise, call accordingly (best was when I put him on over pair to board and he said "what do I have" I said J's and he flips cards to show J's).
 
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BlueNowhere

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So his range is pretty wide? In that case it's a snap call and not even close.
 
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PotluckXXI

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Well his starting range is wide but he plays well post flop so I know he's got a peice of the board and is ahead atm and he's trying to push off drawing hands (he had a pair of 9's don't remember his kicker).

In the end it would have been "correct" to call if I had calculated my odds properly. It's just the nit in me that hates putting it all in on a 54/46 call
 
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Well with no dead money it's a call, with dead money and being favourite against his range you can have even less outs to still make this a profitable call.

In the end it would've been a good call is not a good way to think about things though. You play against his range, not his specific hand. If he has a set 99% of time and air 1% and you fold and he shows air it wouldn't haven been a good call in the end, it would've been a bad call.
 
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PotluckXXI

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I really appreciate your feedback Blue, what I meant by calling was that it was the Correct decision the outcome didn't matter, and he was pushing top pair hands and less. Like I said I thought at best he had 2 pair and knew it came down to making my draw.
 
Jurn8

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he sounds like a spewtard not a LAG, keep inviting him
 
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PotluckXXI

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Oh yeah I will, but don't confuse this hand and a brief description of him for his game, I really see ability in it, he tailors his play to his competition. I just wish I knew some good players to get into the game.
 
bgomez89

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If its a "no fold em" game, fold pre and wait for a better value hand
 
Arjonius

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All outs are not clean. Some can make your hand but won't win the pot. So for example, drawing to a Q-high flush has the same number of outs as drawing to the nut flush, but obviously, the latter is better since the outs are clean. If you only look at outs and not clean ones, you ignore this distinction.
 
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PotluckXXI

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my read was I was only one holding a flush draw, unless someone held bare A or K would have to runner runner flush. Also I believe was only one with 8 for straight draw.
 
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