Dealing with negative variance in cash games

I am interested to hear how people mentally deal with negative variance.

Do you just shrug it off and wait for it to end?
Does it make you tilt?
Do you do anything in particular to reduce the tilt induced by it, like drop down levels or play less tables or even take a break?

I'm asking because I had a terrible day on the cash tables yesterday and I'm not sure how to deal with it. I'm not too annoyed because I have a large enough BR to handle it, and I know I got it in good. I don't want to take a break right now or drop stakes because I want to earn the remaining 600VPPs by the end of the month to get a $50 stellar.

SOOOOooooo many bad beats yesterday it was sick

Lol whats that 4bi under ev? so rediculously standard if so

It's 5NL so 6.5BI below EV...in one day

it sucks but you have to move on... i have been 40bi under ev before and that hurt like hell i didnt think it would ever get better i bitched and bitched but it does.

micromachine said:

I am interested to hear how people mentally deal with negative variance.

Do you just shrug it off and wait for it to end?
Does it make you tilt?
Do you do anything in particular to reduce the tilt induced by it, like drop down levels or play less tables or even take a break?

I'm asking because I had a terrible day on the cash tables yesterday and I'm not sure how to deal with it. I'm not too annoyed because I have a large enough BR to handle it, and I know I got it in good. I don't want to take a break right now or drop stakes because I want to earn the remaining 600VPPs by the end of the month to get a $50 stellar.

SOOOOooooo many bad beats yesterday it was sick


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Your EV line says you didn't really ever have your money in good at any point as it shows you -$ at every point. I see you're under EV in terms of losing money so you shoulden't of lost as much as you did, but as played..you should of lost money if that makes sense?

i have something to say about this, i just watched a hand where doyle brunson went in with 66 against a millionaires KK, doyle hit a 6 on the flop and had a set, they both bet $102,300 each, doyle took the $204,000 pot with a set of 6's.

Bad beats and having a bad run is the inherent nature of poker, and online poker can be ridiculous in how many they can serve you up more than live in my experience, good luck.

ramdeebam said:

Your EV line says you didn't really ever have your money in good at any point as it shows you -$ at every point. I see you're under EV in terms of losing money so you shoulden't of lost as much as you did, but as played..you should of lost money if that makes sense?

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Yes, it is true that I should have lost money...around 4 buy-ins, and I accept that was due to bad play on my part.

BUT I actually lost just over 10 buy-ins. The 6.5BI that I am under EV basically come from several big hands where I got my money in good and lost. So you cant say I didn't get my money in good at any point. Just a few examples - in preflop all-ins my AA lost to KK, my KK lost to A5, my AQ lost to 10 6, so I got my money in good and lost.

how about when you hit a downswing for a few weeks,what does anybody do then?how do you lose less when this sort of thing happens?

Yeah ^^ how do you cash game veterans deal with that?

Mathematically, variance downswings will always come to an end but I can see why plenty of players (including myself) think that 20BI bankroll management isn't enough. imwatcher above said he was 40BI below EV, that could wipe out a bankroll even if using conservative management

Shrug it off , and move on just as if you had won...I mean if you were up ten bi would you get overly excited...probably not so no need to have any negative feelings when the cards are not smiling at you either.

It's never easy to deal with. That is why poker is so profitable and will always remain so. Sessions like this are very standard and having a whole mess of them in a row will also happen to you. Play enough hands and you will run into some stretches where this goes on for weeks, months or more.

There really isn't a lot you can do. It is not something that you have any control over. What you can control is your reaction to it. I am a pretty big fan of Tommy Angelo's work and his idea of reciprocality. Here is a direct quote.

In the world of reciprocality, it's not what you do that matters most, and it's not what they do. It's both. Reciprocality is any difference between you and your opponents that affects your bottom line. Reciprocality says that when you and your opponents would do the same thing in a given situation, no money moves, and when you do something different, it does.

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http://tommyangelo.com/articles/reciprocality/

When I am in a downswing I pride myself on reacting to it better than my opponents. I know that they will go through the same thing eventually. But the difference is that I will spew less money than them.

Try to shrug it off as best as you can but definitely take a break. Exercising is great too because it releases endorphins which is nice

Is that a standard number of hands for you in a day?

You know what? I been playing 6h games 6 tables at a time and i ran good for the 1st 2 hours. Took a break and ran into better hands wen i had made hands too. lost almost everything i grinded. Came back, another hour, it was a bit better. But the thing is, I did not let it affect my game play, I said, well he got a set, I got a set, what can i do if my set is worse. NH, move on

I used to be the worst at this.... now.... I thank GOD i can finally push through now. As long as i played well I cant complain. I get mad even when i suck out and win because I played it bad

If you were already a winning player, do not stop playing your game, dont question it. Because you are most likely solid however, just the varience is beating on you now.

WVHillbilly said:

Is that a standard number of hands for you in a day?

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Funny you should say that, I had the exact same thought.

When I was grinding in Nov for SN I played about this many hands/day and it was horrendous, and definitely sub-optimal for my abilities. Since I got SN I've played only a few hands by comparison, and I'm doing fine (i.e. winning!!!).

MM, also stop looking at AIEV. I did that a while ago because it never helps, not really. For a start, it only tells a small part of the story.

You have a PM.

Cafeman31 said:

Funny you should say that, I had the exact same thought.

When I was grinding in Nov for SN I played about this many hands/day and it was horrendous, and definitely sub-optimal for my abilities. Since I got SN I've played only a few hands by comparison, and I'm doing fine (i.e. winning!!!).

MM, also stop looking at AIEV. I did that a while ago because it never helps, not really. For a start, it only tells a small part of the story.

You have a PM.

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Well the reason I asked was to determine if mm plays that type of volume as standard or if he played that long chasing loses. If it's the former great for him (assuming he's generally winning overall) but if it's the latter it's a HUGE leak. A lot of people tend to play their longest sessions when they're playing their worst poker and their shortest sessions when they're playing/running their best. Work on reversing that tendency and you can make a lot of money.

No, I don't normally play that many hands. I had a typical 1-2 hour session in the evening but I couldn't get to sleep that night, so I went back on for a couple more hours, which is when the bad beats started. I wasn't even playing badly but the sickouts just kept coming! I honestly couldn't believe it.

Totally agree shorter 1-2 hour sessions are best, I usually start making mistakes when longer than that.

I'm def not a winning player yet, pretty break-even recently before this kick in the balls.

Wasn't trying to have a whine ITT btw just interested in how others deal with this so thanks for the replies, hopefully its over now

It's not equally easy for everyone to deal with negative variance. Different people have different personalities, tolerances, thresholds, coping mechanisms, etc. So, there's no magic formula that will work for everyone.

When I used to play more cash, one thing that helped me quite a bit was getting away from the "I can't move down" mentality. I can appreciate that you're not inclined to because you're going after points. Been there, done that. For me, I generally found it better to move down anyway, primarily to get back into winning, which naturally improved my attitude. It wasn't necessarily for long - sometimes, it took less than an hour.

bgomez89 said:

Try to shrug it off as best as you can but definitely take a break.

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You quite clearly stated in the OP that taking a break wasn't really an option at the moment.

Great advice from WVHillbilly, as always.

Good luck, anyway!

Achieving the stellar awards bonus is FAR less important than disciplining yourself to take breaks and being able to deal with tilt fastforward

have things improved off late micromachine? Still negative variance? Whats up///

You just have to learn to shrug off the bad beats. Short term variance is what keeps the fish coming back and keeps the games going. If you are playing correctly you will ultimately be rewarded. Don't change your game because of short term results.

If a fish sucks out on me I'm actually glad because I make a note and know that I can value town him in the long run.

I try to not even look at my bankroll except at the end of the week.

nitulbhatia said:

have things improved off late micromachine? Still negative variance? Whats up///

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Yes deffo improved lol, this is yesterday graph, lots of hands again but had the day off work, went and did all my xmas shopping then had a great session of poker

bgomez89 said:

Achieving the stellar awards bonus is FAR less important than disciplining yourself to take breaks and being able to deal with tilt fastforward

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I think this is very true, chasing a bonus when tilting can be a disaster and it's possible to lose more than the damn thing is worth.

Luckily I am MUCH better at dealing with tilt nowadays so I have been able to shrug it off, continue playing well and going for the reward. In the past I would have probably started playing like an idiot and tilting even worse as a result.

alaskabill said:

I try to not even look at my bankroll except at the end of the week.

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How can you resist not looking at it? I have the cashier open all the time while playing and look at it every 10 mins or so!