Chasing a flush pot odds

I was reading a thread earlier and people were talking about what it took to make the odds wrong to chase a flush draw after the flop. Someone said half the pot, another said a pot sized bet. I have always played that it has to be a larger than pot sized bet. The odds of chasing one card to a flush after the flop are roughly 1 in 3. There for, if I need 1 card for a nut flush and someone bets the pot, I call. Their bet plus the pot plus my bet gives me even odds for the call and that does not count implied odds if I hit. Am I correct?
P.S. I play outside straight draws thr same.

I would bet out half pot size bet and if it was raised then I would call up a to a pot sized bet. Anything above that, I would fold. You don't hit often enough to invest more.

Factoring in implied odds and the fact you may sometimes win without hitting the flush you need around 3-1 odds to call with a flopped flush draw. 3-1 odds corresponds to a half-pot size bet.

Flush chasing without proper odds is a huge leak that you need to fix. Pot-sized bets only give you 2-1 odds to chase, so in the long run you are losing money by calling them.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

Flush chasing without proper odds is a huge leak that you need to fix. Pot-sized bets only give you 2-1 odds to chase, so in the long run you are losing money by calling them.

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Isn't 1 out of 3 the same as 2 to 1? My chart has the odds of hitting as 1 out of 2.86 or 1.86 to 1. Is there something wrong with my chart or am I not understanding the terminology? I definitely want to fix this if I'm wrong.

These odds are for looking at both cards. Double them to see just the turn.

Well its actually 36% chance to hit the flush all the way to the river making it roughly about 3.5:1 to hit.. so calling a pot bet or even making a bet yourself is 2:1

Alon Ipser said:

Isn't 1 out of 3 the same as 2 to 1? My chart has the odds of hitting as 1 out of 2.86 or 1.86 to 1. Is there something wrong with my chart or am I not understanding the terminology? I definitely want to fix this if I'm wrong.

These odds are for looking at both cards. Double them to see just the turn.

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The subject of odds can get really confusing. I recommend staying away from ratios (1 out of x) and sticking to odds (x to 1), since that's what most (but not all) popular poker experts use. But just to touch on your question: Yes. Subtract one from the ratio to get the odds.

Now the other part pertaining to flush draws and trying to keep it simple like Chris was: If you have 1 card to come and there are 4 hearts you can see out of the 6 cards out (2 hole cards + 4 on board), you technically have about 4-1 "break-even" odds with 9 outs (46/9 = 5.11 minus 1= 4 to 1 rounded odds) (46 cards unseen divided by the 9 hearts left). The experts say to memorize the break-even odds for each number of outs to prevent having to do this math every hand.

Now the "implied odds" Chris mentioned have to do with a few other variable factors. If you have 2 cards to come (from the flop), that improves your odds a little. The money that will go in on further rounds may help your "pot odds" a little. If you hit a winning top pair with one of your high cards instead of your flush, that helps a little. So in your mind, you sweeten the odds by one and make it 3-1 as Chris mentioned. Then you must refigure your implied odds on the turn and even the river.

I relayed most of this from the first part of the book "Small Stakes Hold 'Em" by Miller/Sklansky/Malmuth. The odds part applies to both Limit & No-Limit. I highly recommend it.

Thanks all for the help but still not resolved for me. I guess the difficut part for me is knowing the odds for looking at two cards but if it doesn't hit the first card there is another round of betting at twice the odds which I need to figure in. I can see the book you mentioned, Mr S., coming in the near future. I do know several of my outs and the rest I use the shotgun method to figure my odds, which is the number of outs doubled then multiplied by the draws left. By the way, twizzy, I think that is the way you came up with your figures. It's not exact but close enough when in a game situation. It's funny that I have been a member here for quite a while and just now learning that I need to figure a basic part of the game out. Goes to show you never stop learning.

The problem with chasing a flush draws, as opposed to straight draw, is that the implied odds are usually low while most good players will recognize the possibility, therefore, it's more important to know your pot odds than with the straight because your unlikely to get much more than what's already in the pot. Your chances of filling either one of them are essentially the same but the implied odds for the straight draw muddy the mathamatics a bit.

The exact odds are as follow. 19.15% or 4.2:1 on the turn and 19.57% or 4.1:1 on the river which means that unless you know you can extract another bet from your opponent when you hit your flush, it's mathamatically incorrect to call more than a 1/3 pot bet. However, when calling an all in bet on the flop your odds are 34.97% so you need only 2:1 odds to call which means you can call up to a pot sized bet. In this case however, it's critical that you are getting the correct odds because there will be no implied odds to make up the difference for the majority of those times when you don't fill your flush.

Ty that is why a continuation bet on a board that has 2 cards with the same suit is very criticial to at least making a pot bet... Most of the time though I will bet over the pot to make sure the odds are incorrect for someone to call for a flush or even open ended straight draw.

Granted I do lose to the flush or the open ended straight draw cause they do call, reason they don't care about the odds, don't know about odds, or they just throw odds out the window cause they don't wish to learn about odds. Long term the 36% to win with a flush or a 32% to hit on the open ended straight draw will lose more then not.. but those who are against the flush draw and open ended straight have to realize that they will only win 64% against the flush and 68% against the open ended straight draw.... never mind any of the runner runners the opponent may hit.

twizzybop said:

Ty that is why a continuation bet on a board that has 2 cards with the same suit is very criticial to at least making a pot bet...

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Exactly. But unless I'm short stacked in a tournament situation, I'm trying to keep the chasers in, not chase them out. As long as your disciplined enough to fold when you think your opponent has filled their draw, I find that a 1/2 to 1/3 pot bet will often get called. This is a good thing. Particularly in ring games where long term EV (expected value) is more important.

If your opponent is making a pot sized bet, you are getting the correct odds to call, based on your equity in the pot. However if your opponent knows you are on this draw, calling a potsized bet on the flop is huge -EV. Cause when the turn card comes a blank, your equity will only be half of what it was on the flop, so you can no longer warrant calling a potsized bet. This means that you since you don't see the river card, you were not given the correct odds to chase. So when you are calling a potsized bet on the flop, you are doing it because you hope your opponent will pay you off if you hit, wich makes it a decision based on implied odds, rather than pot odds. If you know your opponent is going to bet you out of the pot on the turn if a blank comes, it's only correct to call a ½ pot sized bet on the flop, based on the pot odds.
If your opponent is making an all in pot sized bet on the flop, calling would be the correct decision simply based on your equity in the pot.

Os, are you saying you can call a Pot sized bet with a flush draw on the flop? I'm not sure this is right? You're only 4:1 to fill on the next card.

No, I'm saying you can't call a pot sized bet on the flop, unless your opponent is all in or you are calling because of implied odds.

It's possible that your implied odds will make it worth the call, but with a pot sized bet that is very unlikely. If you're up against 1 opponent who is all-in then this can never be the right call. There are no implied odds. You've gotten all you can get out of him already. In this case you will be mathamatically incorrect to call more than a 1/3 pot sized bet.

I agree that the implied odds are usually not good enough to warrant a pot sized bet, I just stated that if you were calling, it would have to be based on implied odds, rather than pot odds.

Four Dogs said:

If you're up against 1 opponent who is all-in then this can never be the right call. There are no implied odds. You've gotten all you can get out of him already. In this case you will be mathamatically incorrect to call more than a 1/3 pot sized bet.

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I think you're wrong on this one. In order to call a potsized all in bet, you need to have 33.3% equity to be breakeven, and you will usually have more than 33% equity if you are chasing a flush. So calling with a flush draw in this scenario would be mathematically correct.

Osmann said:

I agree that the implied odds are usually not good enough to warrant a pot sized bet, I just stated that if you were calling, it would have to be based on implied odds, rather than pot odds.



I think you're wrong on this one. In order to call a potsized all in bet, you need to have 33.3% equity to be breakeven, and you will usually have more than 33% equity if you are chasing a flush. So calling with a flush draw in this scenario would be mathematically correct.

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Oops. Your right. 35% with 2 to come.

Granted yes we have implied odds.. but yet those implied odds are again a pot bet on the turn, that's if the flush chaser has called the pot bet on the flop. Again another pot bet on the turn would keep giving the flush chaser only 2:1 odds to call.

The all-in call or push would change based apon the amount of chips and or money the flush chaser has by his side.

If you have say 1000 chips and he has 5000.. pushing all in with your 1k does indeed make it 2:1 but the stack size says diffrently and more then not he does call.

Now if you are even in stack sizes and he calls it still becomes 2:1 to make the all in call.

The best way to get implied odds is when there are a few callers ahead or behind you(if you are the flush chaser)... Someone puts in a pot bet and you've called knowing say another 1-2 opponents will call then it gives correct odds... if someone has called a pot bet before you(playing rags and got a piece of the flop).. calling a bet after that person makes it 3:1


Yet I have seen the scenario change around where the flush chaser pushed his stack in on the 3.5:1 hit, making you make the decision to call which then you are still giving him incorrect odds to win based apon that same bet.

Pot sized offers 2:1 they should need 3:1 to make the call profitable in the long run but with implied odds you could take one off and it might work out as profitable. I've heard some pro's say that they bet twice the pot that way they can take it down without a fight. I've tried that online but the donks just think your stealing and call with less then nothing so I'd just go the 3/4 pot or pot sized.

It all depends on stack size and how strong of a flush. If its a nutflush and its 5 dollars against a super aggressive opponent, who has 300 and there is only 3 dollars in the pot, you better call.

Still incorrect odds to call, long run making this call will make the 300 dollar person BROKE.

depends it really depends

usally i like having middle pair or just a pair if i'm going chase the flush,but it's seems ever time i fold it ,the card comes out,and the other way ,the one time I do call it don't happen for me..lol...So in the end i think it's best not to chase the flush ,unless holding other outs.
that;s my take on it
Over & Out
joe
jph6696:hello:

Here is an exerpt I have from one of my e-mail from roy rounders

Relying Too Much On Odds During "All-In" Plays

In no limit Texas Holdem there is no restriction to how much
you can bet. This makes the use of an odds calculator more
tricky in this game type.

For instance, let's say there's $20 in the pot and your
opponent decides to go all-in for his entire stack of $480.

You have to make a decision to call or fold.

The "pot odds" in a situation like this aren't very good.
The reason is because there's such a small amount in the
pot.

In this situation, however, pot odds don't mean much. Your
decision shouldn't be based on "math"... it should be based
on WHETHER YOU THINK YOUR OPPONENT HAS A BETTER HAND.

An all-in situation is so "disproportionate" that odds
aren't really relevant... so don't get too caught up in
them.

So it also gives you something to think about.