Change bet sizing when villains have a flush draw?

Im talking if we know were ahead OTF. E.g. We have a set or big overpair. How much do we bet relative to the size of the pot? The way people chase a flush is just amazing most of the time. Over the past couple of days its been truly ridiculous, which is why ive made this thread. Not just against me but others at the table. Ive seen people paying off 3/4 of their stack just to pay to see a turn and river to make a third suit hit the board, then fold after they miss on the river.

We obviously want people chasing like this but it is tilting at the time when this terrible play gets rewarded. The last three times at least, ive had AA, KK and a set of 5s on the flop and every turn has completed the flush. Im not getting bluffed off them, its actually hilarious how obvious it is when it happens. The passive fish that has been sat there for hundreds of hands suddenly is 3-betting and shoving us all in when a third suit hits.

Can we just disregard the size of the flop and turn bets if we think they're on a FD? Im thinking 3/4+ pot will still get calls, certainly on the flop, and this way we get huge value when the fools do miss. Im so pessimistic when I get called and two of the same suit is on board, I just know the flush is coming.

Obviously, the more you bet vs a flush draw, the more you win when you're called and it misses. However, this is seldom if ever a free lunch situation since the opponent's rage is always wider. If you fold out other hands that would call a smaller bet, you lose value from that part of his range.

Making the pot larger also raises the importance of your ability to determine when the opponent actually does and doesn't have te flush.

Arjonius said:

Obviously, the more you bet vs a flush draw, the more you win when you're called and it misses. However, this is seldom if ever a free lunch situation since the opponent's rage is always wider. If you fold out other hands that would call a smaller bet, you lose value from that part of his range.

Making the pot larger also raises the importance of your ability to determine when the opponent actually does and doesn't have te flush.

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How do you play the hand when a third suit hits the turn or river, and you hold an overpair or set? Continued aggression and bet sizing, but think about folding to any real counter aggression which represents a flush if the board is dry? When villains make a flush they seem to play back at us in the same way they do with sets in my experience.

If were not getting raised when we hold an overpair or set for example, even after a third suit hits the board, can we usually assume were good?

yeah i think when the third suit hits and you hold overpairs and sets, you're gunna be missing value by not betting, if we get played back at we just have to let it go or call and hope to make a boat OTR, if he flats the turn it doesn't necessary mean he doesn't hold a flush, but i think in general unless it's nut flush we'll see villain raise us on the turn if he makes his flush.

If you are OOP and the guy is "ATCs" player who chases flushes, then you can fire overbets with impunity (125-150% of pot). On river either bet small and fold to raise or chkfold every time the original FD (from the flop) hits and you are golden.

As for folding out his minor stuff:
1) less worries about random 2P hands
2) these hands don't pay that much
3) you get to know EXACTLY what remained in his range

Basically after he pays 2 massive overbets, most of the time you already won more money by the river than he can recover when he hits.

It flush arrives on the turn, even better for you. Chkfold and be done with an overpair, chkcall and see if you hit FH with a set/2P.

Oh BTW, if he missed the draw then chk river for more goodness 'cause some of them shove the rest of their stack as a bluff

Extra special goodness when he hits his flush and you hit your full house, always good for a laugh.

LD1977 said:

If you are OOP and the guy is "ATCs" player who chases flushes, then you can fire overbets with impunity (125-150% of pot). On river either bet small and fold to raise or chkfold every time the original FD (from the flop) hits and you are golden.

As for folding out his minor stuff:
1) less worries about random 2P hands
2) these hands don't pay that much
3) you get to know EXACTLY what remained in his range

Basically after he pays 2 massive overbets, most of the time you already won more money by the river than he can recover when he hits.

It flush arrives on the turn, even better for you. Chkfold and be done with an overpair, chkcall and see if you hit FH with a set/2P.

Oh BTW, if he missed the draw then chk river for more goodness 'cause some of them shove the rest of their stack as a bluff

Extra special goodness when he hits his flush and you hit your full house, always good for a laugh.

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This was really helpful, thanks!

No problem, go crush the fish

How can you know if villain is on a flush draw OTF before any betting has occurred?

I think you're thinking about it too narrowly. We assign villain(s) a preflop range and that range becomes more defined after flop action. Just because a flop is mono- or two-tone does not mean villain is on that draw.

Generally speaking, we bet overpairs/sets for value, and one of the major factors that determines our bet sizing is board texture. We may bet smaller (or even check) flops that are dry and are difficult to connect with and bet larger on wet flops that hit our opponents' ranges and/or is draw heavy.

You are actually allowed to take notes on players.

LD1977 said:

You are actually allowed to take notes on players.

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Not sure what you're saying/implying...

I am saying that identifying the player type and putting it in notes allows you to take imbalanced exploitative lines profitably against him.

Concretely:
1) If I see a player continually showdown random suited crap then I put "ATCs" in his note.
2) If I see him chase FDs without odds, I have found a new customer for this line.

ATCs is 23,5% of all hands, when you add pairs and Broadways you arrive at 38.5% VPIP which is a typical ATCs fish stat. It is not rocket science but does require 3 minutes with Poker Stove.

Agreed.

But it's still impossible to put villain on a flush draw before any flop betting has occurred.

Yes but if he doesn't have it then he folds anyway with most of his range.

I am saying if he has it he will pay. Therefore I am not concerned about folding out some random crap one pair hand that will call one small cbet and fold to turn cbet unless it stumbled into 2P.

Flop bet clears his range right up so all he has on the turn is flush draws and 2P+ hands, heavily weighted towards flush draws.

Obviously this isn't good vs aggro players who actually shove FDs on the flop, but the passive type who just chases endlessly. If he raises flop then it is a set like 100% of the time* since now HE is afraid of the flush. Goes double for turn raises.

* For some reason these guys rarely raise their random crappy 2P.

Mr Sandbag said:

SNIP<<<<We assign villain(s) a preflop range and that range becomes more defined after flop action. >>>>>SNIP

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My issues with $2 NL and some in $5 NL (both FR) is there is no way to put players on any range, they call everything with anything.

So if someone is calling my 3-bet pre-flop with 8-4 O, or call my 4-bet shove when I have As with P-3s or 45 Suited (yes, these and many more have happened), I have no idea how to put him on a range.

So, with all due respect, many times at Micro stakes, a Villain's range isn't applicable.

Suggestions or comments?

Identify via notes and exploit. Seemed to work for me.

They still have a range, regardless of how wide it is.

Mr Sandbag said:

They still have a range, regardless of how wide it is.

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OK, technically, yes, you're right. However, it's useless information for quite a few players on Micros.

Not after the flop though.

Mr Sandbag said:

Not after the flop though.

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You're holding As. You're against a villain who is holding God only knows what because he's shown to be so loose before calling with anything, and has called your 3-bet and you have position on him.

Fop comes 2-7-J rainbow, he checks and you bet 1/2 the pot, he calls. Turn is 5-D, now 2 diamonds on the board. He checks, you bet 1/2 the pot again and he raises or shoves.

What's he on? What do you do?

Depends on his tendencies. Even some of the loosest fish aren't shoving with weak hands, while others may take this line with a draw. Read-dependent.

Example from a recent session of mine:

1/2 NL Live - Straddled ($5) Pot

I just switched tables because the straddler in this hand is a huge fish. I'm in the SB.

I raise to $25 with .
Straddler calls (I expect him to call with literally ATC to defend his straddle). Heads up.

Flop ($50):

I bet $35.
Straddler calls.

I know from previous experience with him that he tends to raise top pair, so his call makes his range draw-heavy.

Turn ($120):

I bet $50.
Straddler calls.

His range is almost all draws here.

River ($220):

I check.
Straddler bets $150.

I check here because I don't expect to get any value out of missed draws with a bet. But I know from previous experience with this player that he will bluff missed draws frequently.

I call, and villain shows .


There is an example of a range that is literally 100% preflop, yet we can use postflop tendencies to narrow his range and get value from bluffs on the river.

Remember, we are betting/raising/calling against a players range, not an exact hand. So if a player's range is extremely wide, it's also generally pretty weak and we want to bet for value with solid hands. We don't need to know the player's exact hand to make correct decisions.

SeaRun said:

My issues with $2 NL and some in $5 NL (both FR) is there is no way to put players on any range, they call everything with anything.

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This is an over-generalization. To use your example, you're saying that if you've seen someone call a 3bet with 84o, the next time he does so, he's equally likely to have every possible combo. But how likely is this? For the probabilities of say 84o and AJo to be equal, he would have to open both bands the same % of the time he's dealt them, plus he'd have to call your 3bet equally often.

This gets into the realm of weighting ranges. Let's simplify by only considering 84o and AJo. Let's further assume he'll open AJs 100% and then call a 3bet 100%, plus that he'll open 84o 50%, then call a 3bet 50%. In this simplified model, although you can't completely eliminate 84o, he's 4 times more likely to have AJ.

Arjon, it is very seldom I have seen the same player shove or call big with garbage. There are players (regs obviously) I have over 2 K hands on, and many with over 1000 ranging from 8/6 to 24/16 (if memory serves me correct). These are not the players I have issues with. I have decent stats in the HUD and plenty of notes.

It's the players I have no history on, always new, some ratholers, some who just leave after a big win to empty their stack and start over at another table. If players are coming and going all the time, usually there is no next time, I might never see them again.

SeaRun said:

Arjon, it is very seldom I have seen the same player shove or call big with garbage. There are players (regs obviously) I have over 2 K hands on, and many with over 1000 ranging from 8/6 to 24/16 (if memory serves me correct). These are not the players I have issues with. I have decent stats in the HUD and plenty of notes.

It's the players I have no history on, always new, some ratholers, some who just leave after a big win to empty their stack and start over at another table. If players are coming and going all the time, usually there is no next time, I might never see them again.

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I don't use a HUD but do plan on starting so the bolded numbers are completely foreign to me, I have an idea of what they mean (stats for pre-flop I believe, could be wrong)
Without derailing the thread- anyone able to give me a quick explanation?

Thanks

LgBassMan said:

I don't use a HUD but do plan on starting so the bolded numbers are completely foreign to me, I have an idea of what they mean (stats for pre-flop I believe, could be wrong)
Without derailing the thread- anyone able to give me a quick explanation?

Thanks

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Normally the first number is VPIP (Voluntarily Put In Pot) and the 2nd is PFR (Pre-Flop Raise)

LgBassMan said:

I don't use a HUD but do plan on starting so the bolded numbers are completely foreign to me, I have an idea of what they mean (stats for pre-flop I believe, could be wrong)
Without derailing the thread- anyone able to give me a quick explanation?

Thanks

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Get a HUD. Like, today. Can't stress that enough.

8/6 = NIT 24/16 = TAGfish