Continuation BettingWhen I
first started playing poker several years ago, continuation betting was something that many players didn’t understand. The game was very passive and the idea o
f taking control o
f hands and using aggression and continuation bets to take down pots was
foreign to many players. Back then, I probably continuation bet nearly 100% o
f the time in tournaments, and it was very success
ful, as most players played a very ‘
fit or
fold’ type o
f game.
Since then, through the many published
poker books, online resources, and even through discussion on televised poker, continuation betting is something even casual players understand
for the most part. This has made a strategy o
f continuation betting 100% o
f the time very exploitable and even very inexperienced players can pick up on and counter it
fairly easily.
Certainly there are still players I run across who I continuation bet against nearly 100% o
f the time, but the game has become much more sophisticated and learning how, when, and who to continuation bet is a skill now that many poker players don’t
fully understand. My continuation bet
frequency is probably a lot closer to 55-60% now as opposed to the 100% it was when I
first started playing. Let's run through a
few situations and discuss the merits o
f continuation betting in each.
In all o
f these situations we are going to assume that our opponent is a tight, aggressive player and that we are somewhat deep stacked allowing
for a little more play post-
flop. We are also assuming that we have a somewhat tight, aggressive image, as having a loose image typically means you should continuation bet less but value bet more o
ften.
In the
first situation, we raise under the gun at a
full table and the button
flat calls us. The
first thing we must do when deciding i
f we should continuation bet (assuming we are doing so as a blu
ff since we missed the
flop, and not
for value) is what kind o
f range our opponent is on.
Given that we raised in early position and our opponent is tight and aggressive, he is likely calling with hands like pocket pairs and suited connectors, and much less likely he is calling us with a hand like A-10 or K-Q. So dangerous
flops
for us would have lots o
f middle cards and good
flops would have high cards.
So i
f the
flop were something like 8-7-6 that would be a bad
flop
for a continuation bet. Sure, we raised under the gun which represents a big hand, but that kind o
f flop smacks our opponents range, and also there are a ton o
f scare cards that can come on the turn, so our opponent could
flat call with lots o
f hands.
However i
f the
flop were K-Q-10, even though that
flop looks very dangerous it is actually a good one to continuation bet as it misses a lot o
f our opponent’s range and hits a lot o
f our perceived range. Even a
flop like 9-6-4 isn’t an ideal continuation bet
flop. We really want at least one high card in the mix.
The trickiest
flops here are ones like K-3-3. These
flops o
ften require you to give consideration to having to two barrel i
f you’re going to continuation bet, since it is quite likely a hand like 7-7 or 8-8 may peel a card on these
flops, but can’t stand the heat o
f multiple bets. Now obviously i
f our opponent has a looser calling range then a lot o
f this can change, but against a standard tight, aggressive player this type o
f continuation betting strategy is o
ften a good one.
A second situation probably comes up more
frequently. That is when we raise
from late position and are called by someone in the blinds. These situations can be a lot tougher as our opponents are o
ften calling with a wider variety o
f hands as well as types o
f hands.
Hands like Q-J, J-10, K-10 are all common to run into as are small to mid pairs and suited connectors. Even weak aces come into play here, depending on how aggressively the player de
fends his blind. Also, unlike the under the gun situation, our perceived range will be much wider, so simply betting high
flops and checking low ones is not a good strategy, as now our opponent’s range contains more high cards and his perceived range o
f us contains more low cards.
What we are typically looking
for in these situations
for a good continuation bet are either very disconnected and dry
flops, or very scary
flops that our opponents would have a hard time calling down light on.
To illustrate this, I’ll show you two very similar
flops, one o
f which is a lot better
for continuation betting than the other: J-7-3 and J-8-3. Now my guess is most o
f you know which one is better, but can you tell why? The J-7-3 is a
far better
flop to continuation bet, because there are
far
fewer combinations that connect with it than J-8-3.
This may not seem intuitive at
first, but the J-8-3
flop has many more straight draws on it, most o
f which are also in a blind de
fender’s calling range. Q-10, 10-9, Q-9 suited, 9-7suited, and even 10-7suited are all hands that players would de
fend with, and that’s not counting the hands that hit the
flop.
The J-7-3 does have the potential
for straight draws, but opponents de
fend with hands like 6-4 and 8-6
far less
frequently than hands like Q-10 and 10-9 so when you look at the overall combinations o
f cards your opponent holds, they are
far less likely to be willing to call bets on a J-7-3
fl op than a J-8-3
flop.
Another type o
f flop is scary
flops. This includes high paired boards like A-A-9 or K-K-8 as well as high straight and/or
flush boards like A-Q-J and Qc- Jc-9c. These can be good to continuation bet because it is very tough
for opponents to call i
f they believe you may
fire multiple streets at them. On the all-club
flop you will sometimes get semi-blu
ffed by a dry ace, but o
ften your opponent has a hard time calling bets even i
f he hit a piece o
f the
flop due to the scary nature o
f the board.
The last type o
f flop that is o
ften good to continuation bet in these situations is the very ragged
flops like 5-5-4. Unlike when you raised under the gun your opponent’s range has many more J-10 type hands in it in this situation, so continuation betting ragged
flops o
ften becomes a good idea. The thing to be care
ful o
f is many players will call your continuation bet somewhat light on these boards and you must consider that you will have to
fire a second barrel i
f a big card comes o
ff on the turn.
Poker has evolved to a point where continuation betting is something that must be done more care
fully. You must be able to assign your opponent probable ranges of cards as well as their likelihood of being able to fold hands in that range, then take that into account along with the fl op texture and determine how often you should continuation bet.
