C-bet this flop?

c9h13no3

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This is a quiz of sorts, which centers around your thought processes for c-betting the flop. Tell me if you c-bet this board, for how much if you do c-bet, and your rationale behind your decision. And the important part is the reasons why you do what you do, not your choice.

The flop & our stack size stays the same, but the villain, our position, and our hand changes. Assume 100bb deep stacks, $50NL 6-max. We raised 4xbb's preflop, and villain called (villain did not limp). If we are in position, villain has checked to us.

Stats are to read as follows: VPIP/PFR/AFq(AF)

Flop: 8 6 8

Option #1:
Villain is a 65/35/55%(5.0). He folds to 35% of c-bets. We are holding AK , and we are in position.


Option #2:
Villain is a
88/5/22%(1.0). He folds to 55% of c-bets. We are holding 66♠, and we are out of position.

Option #3:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 75, and are out of position.

Option #4:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 99♠, and are in position.
 
icemonkey9

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Great thread, I'll chime in once some of the micro-stakes guys have a say.
 
TPC

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I don't have a hud and don't quit know what the stats mean.
VPIP = Voluntarily puts money in pot - pre flop
PFR = Pre Flop raise %
AFq = ???
 
c9h13no3

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I don't have a hud and don't quit know what the stats mean.
VPIP = Voluntarily puts money in pot - pre flop
PFR = Pre Flop raise %
AFq = ???
AFq is aggression frequency. The higher the percentage, the more an opponent bets or raises. 35%+ is fairly aggressive, less than 25% is pretty passive.

Aggression factor is the sum of all that player's bets & raises divided by his calls. Anything 1.5 or less is pretty passive, 2.5+ is a more raise or fold type of player.

And don't be shy :). The point is not to publicly ridicule you guys for making the wrong decisions, its just to get people discussing the factors that go into making this decision. I'm hoping some of the microstakes players figure out a good set of answers here before some of the more experienced players come in here & start telling everyone the answers ;).
 
Melkor

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Okay, I will give this a go as I have been trying to read up/improve/play more cash lately:

Scenario 1:

I think from a player like that a check is quite odd as he seems aggro. The flop definitely caught a part of his range at least and I don't think he folds to c-bets often enough to make a bet worthwhile here. Checking keeps the pot small and we often have the best hand here and can maybe catch a bluff on the turn or hit an A or K to put us ahead. Just don't see the point in betting. No hand better folds and not many worse call unless without a draw.

Scenario 2:

We have flopped a monster and the obvious play seems to be to check. However, villain has a very low aggression factor and even by his preflop tendencies he seems to be very passive so i would suggest a bet is in order here as it is unlikely he is going to bet for us but he can call with a wide portion of his range. His preflop stats put any pair 99-JJ in his range and they are never folding to a bet. 22-55 including 77 call a bet but don't bet if we check. I imagine 79, 57, T9 as well as all the club flush draws call a bet but will check behind and 8s are in his range too. He could even peel with two high cards. Bet for value.

Scenario 3:

This looks like a perfect semi-bluff opportunity to me. We can check and we are not that worried about him checking behind as we have a ton of outs for a big hand so that would not be a mistake. The check raise will give us a lot of FE and rather than betting and folding out a missed hand we can at least get one more bet out of the villain before making him fold. If he calls then we have a huge draw and can see what the turn brings. If he shoves then we have to call and have a chance at a huge pot. His stats seem to suggest a good LAG so I imagine he is betting quite a few hands on a paired flop if checked to.

Scenario 4:

I would bet here. Villain folds enough to c-bets to take it down here and it is a drawy board. Checking is letting some draws off the hook and allowing to overs a free shot to catch up. If we are check-raised we can fold and if we are called we can reevaluate on the turn. Enough worse hands like draws and low pairs/hands with a 6 in them call. He would reraise with a bigger pair than ours preflop so I think we can bet for value.

Just how I would play them, cool idea.
 
bob_tiger

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Great thread, I'll chime in once some of the micro-stakes guys have a say.

same here, and I'm kind of tired anyways.

also to C9, could you specify positions also if possible, I understand out of position in position thing, but position is going to play a role in ranges.
 
dg1267

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Dang, I caught this one too late tonight. I will post my thoughts on this tomorrow. Good idea though, C9.
 
bob_tiger

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Also one quick question, what's our image at the table, have we been raising a lot? I mean obviously it won't matter with some people, but for option 3 and 4 the villain seems somewhat decent.
 
c9h13no3

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also to C9, could you specify positions also if possible, I understand out of position in position thing, but position is going to play a role in ranges.
If villain has position on us, assume he's button. If we have position on him, assume he's calling from the blinds. And no stealing or blind vs. blind dynamics come into play here. Just assume we made a raise from the cut-off or hijack, and villain has either called us from the button or big blind. But it shouldn't make all that much of a difference.
Also one quick question, what's our image at the table, have we been raising a lot? I mean obviously it won't matter with some people, but for option 3 and 4 the villain seems somewhat decent.
Assume the image you typically have at the table, and include that in your rationale. I'm obviously going to give advice as a LAGtard, because I play like a LAGtard and I have a LAGtard image. But even then, I don't think it matters much, since we're assuming 50NL.
 
bob_tiger

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If villain has position on us, assume he's button. If we have position on him, assume he's calling from the blinds. And no stealing or blind vs. blind dynamics come into play here. Just assume we made a raise from the cut-off or hijack, and villain has either called us from the button or big blind. But it shouldn't make all that much of a difference.
Assume the image you typically have at the table, and include that in your rationale.

ok thanks, brain not working at the moment but will reply tommorow. nice thread btw. :)
 
Richyl2008

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1- I'd check, this type of player is not folding anything, so I think it's better to take a free card then get ch/raised off our hand.

2-bet ,he is a station and will call with any pair, flush draws, overcards, any ace high

3- Bet- We have plenty of equity vs most of the hands he could have.
He might think this flop is unlikely to hit us and raise,
so we 4bet.

4- Bet/check- I dont mind either one tbh. Betting for value, to charge draws, small pp's. Check- induce bluffs, control pot size, and possibly get 2 streets of value from random stuff. Wouldn't be happy getting ch/raised on the flop there, since I dont really want to get it in, and we could easily get outplayed on later streets
 
E

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flop 1 is a check because villain floats a lot and is aggressive so chances of reraise are high

flop 2 is overbet the the pot trying to catch villain out with an 8 (as in Doyle's super system). Villains stats are pretty loose so chance of him holding 8 are better than usual. If he doesn't hold an 8 not that much can be extracted from him anyway with villain being very passive.

flop 3 we cbet about 3/4 - full pot and if raised by aggro villain we are shoving over the top. Our hand is fairly strong even though we're drawing so it's almost a value bet even though any pair is ahead right now. With villain folding to cbets over half the time it wont hurt to take down pot while we have drawing hand. I wouldn't consider laying down straight flush draw on flop.

flop 4 we can check or bet here. Check might induce bluff from aggro villain while bet has decent chance to take pot down with a vulnerable made hand.
 
Melkor

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Okay, I will give this a go as I have been trying to read up/improve/play more cash lately:

Scenario 1:

I think from a player like that a check is quite odd as he seems aggro. The flop definitely caught a part of his range at least and I don't think he folds to c-bets often enough to make a bet worthwhile here. Checking keeps the pot small and we often have the best hand here and can maybe catch a bluff on the turn or hit an A or K to put us ahead. Just don't see the point in betting. No hand better folds and not many worse call unless without a draw.

Scenario 2:

We have flopped a monster and the obvious play seems to be to check. However, villain has a very low aggression factor and even by his preflop tendencies he seems to be very passive so i would suggest a bet is in order here as it is unlikely he is going to bet for us but he can call with a wide portion of his range. His preflop stats put any pair 99-JJ in his range and they are never folding to a bet. 22-55 including 77 call a bet but don't bet if we check. I imagine 79, 57, T9 as well as all the club flush draws call a bet but will check behind and 8s are in his range too. He could even peel with two high cards. Bet for value. 3/4 Pot Bet

Scenario 3:

This looks like a perfect semi-bluff opportunity to me. We can check and we are not that worried about him checking behind as we have a ton of outs for a big hand so that would not be a mistake. The check raise will give us a lot of FE and rather than betting and folding out a missed hand we can at least get one more bet out of the villain before making him fold. If he calls then we have a huge draw and can see what the turn brings. If he shoves then we have to call and have a chance at a huge pot. His stats seem to suggest a good LAG so I imagine he is betting quite a few hands on a paired flop if checked to. Check-raise Pot sized raise

Scenario 4:

I would bet here. Villain folds enough to c-bets to take it down here and it is a drawy board. Checking is letting some draws off the hook and allowing to overs a free shot to catch up. If we are check-raised we can fold and if we are called we can reevaluate on the turn. Enough worse hands like draws and low pairs/hands with a 6 in them call. He would reraise with a bigger pair than ours preflop so I think we can bet for value. 1/2 or 3/4 pot bet.

Just how I would play them, cool idea.

Added in bet sizing which I forgot.
 
O

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I've posted a reply from the top of this thread b/c i wanted to see how my thinking compared to everyone else's reply.

#1 No, doesn't fold to cbets enough and hes aggressive so we'd be opening ourselves up to a c/r which we cant call.

#2 Dodgy one because he's quite likely to check behind if we check but might fold if we bet, i'd say cbet less than half the pot b/c if he has a fd or over cards he'll stick around, if he folds we probably weren't getting anymore money from him anyways

#3 I think cbet here, about 3/4s of the pot, he seems like quite a reasonable player who's likely not to have hit that board, i'd be happy to take the pot down on the flop but if he calls we've got plenty of outs.

#4 I'd check behind here, if you bet and he calls theres a lot of cards that could come on the turn that beat us or we could already be beaten. I'd maybe be trying to get to sd cheaply.

I feel like ive thrown myself to the lions lol but having a quick scan on my lunch break this is what my genius has came up with. I play fr though so this might be a bit nitty for 6max. I hope my answers look like other peoples lol
 
dg1267

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This is a quiz of sorts, which centers around your thought processes for c-betting the flop. Tell me if you c-bet this board, for how much if you do c-bet, and your rationale behind your decision. And the important part is the reasons why you do what you do, not your choice.

The flop & our stack size stays the same, but the villain, our position, and our hand changes. Assume 100bb deep stacks, $50NL 6-max. We raised 4xbb's preflop, and villain called (villain did not limp). If we are in position, villain has checked to us.

Stats are to read as follows: VPIP/PFR/AFq(AF)

Flop: 8 6 8

Option #1:
Villain is a 65/35/55%(5.0). He folds to 35% of c-bets. We are holding AK , and we are in position.

I would cbet 3/4 pot here. If his agg fac is 5% and he's checked I think we can safely assume he hasn't hit this flop. Try to take it down here.

Option #2:
Villain is a
88/5/22%(1.0). He folds to 55% of c-bets. We are holding 66♠, and we are out of position.

Check here. We are more than likely way ahead and we want the villain to catch up to us so we can extract some value....

Option #3:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 75, and are out of position.

Cbet 1/2 pot. We want to get money in the pot because we have a good chance at holding a monster hand, but right now we don't have anything so we don't want to make the pot too big and a cbet still allows us the chance to take the pot down now.

Option #4:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 99♠, and are in position.

I would cbet either 3/4 or pot size here. Our nines are weak, but likely ahead, and we really need to protect them from overcards. A bigger cbet makes it hard for hands like AK, AQ, KQ type hands to keep going here and those are the hands we really don't want to give a cheap card too.

When are we gonna find out what the best answers are?
 
S93

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1. Check.. Villain is super donky and doesnt fold to c-bets. I dont whant to barrel against him cause he is likly to call us down with any part of the board(or any pair in his hand).
i just give up like a sissy man and wait for another shot at him.

2. bet, i pot every street against this guy. he is passive so he is not gonna do the betting for us.
And even if his fold to c-bet % is higher then all the other villain his range also includes more 6,8,suited hands and straight draws that conected with this board.

3.i bet 3/4 the pot.
We have a ton of equity against any possible holdings(excepted 66 and 68 obvs)

4. im not sure if i check behind here or bet 1/2 the pot and check behind the turn. Where not geting 3streets of value out of villain if he has worse and we dont whant to get the money in. only hands that have any significant outs against is the flush draw.
Yeah i c-bet 1/2 the pot and check behind turn if called.
I would like to know if villain is prown to c/r. Cause if he is i be more inclined to check.
 
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Steveg1976

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This is a quiz of sorts, which centers around your thought processes for c-betting the flop. Tell me if you c-bet this board, for how much if you do c-bet, and your rationale behind your decision. And the important part is the reasons why you do what you do, not your choice.

The flop & our stack size stays the same, but the villain, our position, and our hand changes. Assume 100bb deep stacks, $50NL 6-max. We raised 4xbb's preflop, and villain called (villain did not limp). If we are in position, villain has checked to us.

Stats are to read as follows: VPIP/PFR/AFq(AF)

Flop: 8 6 8

Option #1:
Villain is a 65/35/55%(5.0). He folds to 35% of c-bets. We are holding AK , and we are in position.

I check it back here. Villian is aggro and is checking I don't know why, could be a monster could be nothing but I can't call a check raise and with this villians aggression that is possible and he isn't very likely to fold to a c-bet here which is just building a bigger pot for me to possibly make a mistake later.

Option #2:
Villain is a
88/5/22%(1.0). He folds to 55% of c-bets. We are holding 66♠, and we are out of position.

I also check this back but that is becuase he folds to much to c-bets and I want him to think that because this is a paired board it missed me. I don't mind if he checks it back I will bet the turn and pray he catches up a bit, if he bets to my check I call and not check raise and I don't think he calls a check raise with a second best hand here.


Option #3:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 75, and are out of position.

I do c-bet this hand, we have good equity with the combo draw so it a good thing to get money into the middle and villian folding is not a terrible result as we don't have a made hand.

Option #4:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 99♠, and are in position.

These are the players and the hands I hate the most, thank god we are in position. I am 50/50 between betting and just checking if I do bet I have to fire the second barrel or else I am begging this villian to take this hand away from me on the river.

^^ Above in Red FWIW.
 
AmadorEd

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Interesting thoughts so far, i will wait to see some more before i answer............
 
GeoffLacey

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Option 1: Check. The guy just isn't folding here

Option 2: Bet about 3/4 pot. No reason not to. The guy's just so passive we have to get money in. There's no way he's gonna put money in unless he has something or a whiff of something

Option 3: Again bet like 3/4. Ahead of his range and we've got a ton of outs

Option 4: Pretty sure I bet here like most of the time, not sure about how much though... I like Sindri's half pot, we can fold if he raises without having put too much in the pot. There's a good chance we're ahead on the flop and I just wanna see if I can take itdown cos there's so many scare cards that could come on the turn.
 
bob_tiger

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This is a quiz of sorts, which centers around your thought processes for c-betting the flop. Tell me if you c-bet this board, for how much if you do c-bet, and your rationale behind your decision. And the important part is the reasons why you do what you do, not your choice.

The flop & our stack size stays the same, but the villain, our position, and our hand changes. Assume 100bb deep stacks, $50NL 6-max. We raised 4xbb's preflop, and villain called (villain did not limp). If we are in position, villain has checked to us.

Stats are to read as follows: VPIP/PFR/AFq(AF)

Flop: 8 6 8

Option #1:
Villain is a 65/35/55%(5.0). He folds to 35% of c-bets. We are holding AK , and we are in position. Against someone like this, I'm just checking back for pot control and making my decision on the turn.


Option #2:
Villain is a
88/5/22%(1.0). He folds to 55% of c-bets. We are holding 66♠, and we are out of position. I would bet here 2/3, basically because if we go for a check raise, villain immediately knows we are representing either a monster or complete air and if we do check then we have to let him bet which is not going to happen so I'm betting this myself all the way and hoping draws pay me off.

Option #3:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 75, and are out of position. This hand can be played in so many ways and still be correct. The villain seems pretty decent judging by his stats. I think I would bet 2/3 expecting to get played back by this villain since he probably knows we most likely missed the flop, even though we are out of position we can play this hand pretty good knowing how these types of players play.
So let's say villain does reraise me on the flop, I'm only worried about 8 or 66 and that's such a tiny part of his raising range against someone like me, (I say that because I play laggy so I expect to get played back at a lot) so once again I have few options that are completely ok to me, I can reraise him or I can flat and play the turn. I would be playing this hand pretty aggro and without a specific read I probably wouldn't fold to a raise.

Option #4:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 99♠, and are in position.
This hand I feel like can be ok checking behind for pot control, or just c-betting, then depending on the turn make a decision there. Villain seems decent so this hand I would probably c-bet some of the time and check back for pot control other times. Actually now that I'm thinking about it, if this villain is good, he would probably check raise me and that would put me in a tough spot because I would have to either give up or play really passively so I think I like checking back and then going for value on turn and just making decision on turn.

I feel like first two hands should always be played the way I said, third one can be played in many ways,I feel like playing the hand fast and aggresively is +EV in long run and 4th hand it kind of depends.
 
aliengenius

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This is a quiz of sorts, which centers around your thought processes for c-betting the flop. Tell me if you c-bet this board, for how much if you do c-bet, and your rationale behind your decision. And the important part is the reasons why you do what you do, not your choice.

The flop & our stack size stays the same, but the villain, our position, and our hand changes. Assume 100bb deep stacks, $50NL 6-max. We raised 4xbb's preflop, and villain called (villain did not limp). If we are in position, villain has checked to us.

Stats are to read as follows: VPIP/PFR/AFq(AF)

Flop: 8 6 8

Option #1:
Villain is a 65/35/55%(5.0). He folds to 35% of c-bets. We are holding AK , and we are in position.

Since he's check raising us with any draw and any pair (pfa 5.0), I check behind for pot control, then re-evaluate the turn, intending to 'cbet' a brick if checked to, probably call if bet into (depending on the card).

Option #2:
Villain is a
88/5/22%(1.0). He folds to 55% of c-bets. We are holding 66♠, and we are out of position.

Bet, probably just over half pot. He is passive, but doesn't fold that often, will probably peel with as little as ace high or broadway overs. I intend to three barrel this hand.

Option #3:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 75, and are out of position.

Bet, 2/3 pot, with the intention of shoving over a raise, as we have massive equity vs even an overpair. We are the pre-flop raiser, so while he is aggressive we can't count on him betting if checked to.

Option #4:
Villain is a 25/21/35%(3.0). He folds to 45% of c-bets. We are holding 99♠, and are in position.

Bet, because our hand is vulnurable to lots of turn cards (we want to take it down now basically). If we get check raised here I would have to know specific player dependent history to make a good decision. If he calls and checks I'm probably double barreling bec. of his 45% fold cbet stat depending on the card.

above
 
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Mase31683

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Option 1: Checking behind. This guy plays everything, doesn't fold to cbets, probably caught enough of a piece to continue, and we actually have SD value against his range.

Option 2:
Firing 3/4 pot, cuz that's about what I do for cbets. If he's got any interest he's sticking around, and I'm going for 3 streets of value.

Option 3: Firing this too, 3/4 as my SOP. Got a solid draw + FE. Being oop also makes me want to end things ASAP.

Option 4: Cbetting again. This is the hardest one for me, but I don't want to let overcards catch for nothing here. We're still ahead of everything besides a rogue 8, 66, and TT+, but this isn't a fun spot at all. If he calls, gotta wonder what he's doing it with, and hoping to get to a cheap showdown. If he calls me, then checks again on the turn, I'm definitely firing a barrel here as a pre-emptive blocker bet, anticipating that with his marginal hands he's going to call then check the river to me, and may do so with some very strong hands as well like the boat or trip 8's, expecting me to fire the river as well to check raise, and instead I'll check behind.
 
c9h13no3

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Alright, this has gotten a pretty good number of responses, and most of you guys gave really good answers. You should be able to figure out what the correct response was just by how everyone else was answering, but I thought I'd give my opinion on things.

I tried to put these in order of difficulty. The first two scenarios should be pretty straightforward, with the last two being a little more murky.

1) This should be a very easy check behind. We're going to get check/raised very often by this aggressive player, and our hand has showdown value, so the closer we get to showdown the better. Additionally, any diamond, king, ace, or 6 improves our hand, so there are a lot of turn cards that can help us.

2) This should be a very obvious bet. We are out of position, against a passive player. So if we miss a bit, we lose the ability to get all in by the river. The fact that villain folds often to c-bets should not deter us from betting & building the pot.

3) This situation is a bit trickier, but I believe checking with the intention to raise is the best line. Its hard for our hand range to hit this board, and villain called in position, so his range hits this board pretty hard. If we check to villain, most aggressive regs will bet almost 90% of the time. We'd have to be bluff-raised a huge amount of the time to make betting a better play. Additionally, if we bet out, we will often get floated, and be left with a lot less equity on most turns. So in this situation, I really like check/raising the most, but its not tremendously better than c-betting.

4) This is by far the trickiest hand. We're going to be check/raised quite often by this aggressive reg with a wide variety of hands (flush draws, overcards, gutshots, as well as his nut range [8x, 66]). And getting check/raised on this board sucks. We'll essentially have to stack if we get check/raised as well, since there are a ton of turn cards that are going to make our life suck. Given that most regs don't check/call OOP very much on the flop, I think I like checking behind here and playing a little postflop poker.
 
bob_tiger

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Alright, this has gotten a pretty good number of responses, and most of you guys gave really good answers. You should be able to figure out what the correct response was just by how everyone else was answering, but I thought I'd give my opinion on things.

I tried to put these in order of difficulty. The first two scenarios should be pretty straightforward, with the last two being a little more murky.

1) This should be a very easy check behind. We're going to get check/raised very often by this aggressive player, and our hand has showdown value, so the closer we get to showdown the better. Additionally, any diamond, king, ace, or 6 improves our hand, so there are a lot of turn cards that can help us.

2) This should be a very obvious bet. We are out of position, against a passive player. So if we miss a bit, we lose the ability to get all in by the river. The fact that villain folds often to c-bets should not deter us from betting & building the pot.

3) This situation is a bit trickier, but I believe checking with the intention to raise is the best line. Its hard for our hand range to hit this board, and villain called in position, so his range hits this board pretty hard. If we check to villain, most aggressive regs will bet almost 90% of the time. We'd have to be bluff-raised a huge amount of the time to make betting a better play. Additionally, if we bet out, we will often get floated, and be left with a lot less equity on most turns. So in this situation, I really like check/raising the most, but its not tremendously better than c-betting.

4) This is by far the trickiest hand. We're going to be check/raised quite often by this aggressive reg with a wide variety of hands (flush draws, overcards, gutshots, as well as his nut range [8x, 66]). And getting check/raised on this board sucks. We'll essentially have to stack if we get check/raised as well, since there are a ton of turn cards that are going to make our life suck. Given that most regs don't check/call OOP very much on the flop, I think I like checking behind here and playing a little postflop poker.

hands 1 and 2 I certainly agree. hand 4 i don't mind checking back and c-betting sometimes also, I guess that hand mainly comes down to specific reads and history vs villain.
hand 3 I disagree with "and villain called in position, so his range hits this board pretty hard". When I asked you what are the positions, you said assume villain is the button. This villian play 25/21 and is on the button, players like this love playing back wide ranges on the button, he can certainly be flatting 88,66,87,89 but that's a small part of his range because he is also calling us with many other hands in position. I'm assuming by this villain's stats that he is decent and he knows how to float and play back, so this brings me to the point why I feel like c-betting is a better play in the long run. Let's see what each of our plays accomplish.

Ok let's start by looking at your check-raise, in my opinion, when you check raise you basically make his air fold, even in position he is going to fold most of is air type hands and shove back his monsters and are we going to fold when he shoves? do we know if he is capable of 3-bet bluffing the flop? and question for you, let's say you do the check- raise and he shoves are you calling it? So I feel like the check-raise only wins you one c-bet in the long run so like 5-6 bb's.

Ok now let's look what my option of c-betting accomplishes. Ok so we are still assuming he is somewhat decent and like you said our range doesn't neccesarily hit this flop very hard but a decent villain should know that right? I also disagree with " We'd have to be bluff-raised a huge amount of the time to make betting a better play" because I feel like this villain will be floating us a lot knowing our range misses this flop so to him correct play is to float us and take it away from us when we shut down on the turn. So if he is good, we don't even need to care about his fold to c-bet % because this is just a situation where he is in position, he is going to float with a lot of his hands to try and take it away on later streets. Like AG said, if he does raise our c-bet on the flop, I'm just shipping it in, unless I know and am 100% sure he doesn't raise with nothing but monsters on the flop and plays his draws passively and only hands I really am worried about are the 4 I listed 66, 88, 78, 89 and other than that we really aren't worried all that much about over pairs or underpairs since we show profit the times he folds and we will be about even for the times he shows up with over pairs and underpairs (meaning he makes a hero call).

I'm pretty sure he is going to be floating us a lot more than raising us, because too many people at 50nl c-bet once and give up on the turn if they have nothing, so lets see what we can accomplish on the turn. Say we do miss our draws on the turn, now what do we do? I feel like after we c-bet and then check on the turn we look really weak so he is almost always betting the turn to try and take it away with a huge range of his hands, over cards, he could be even floating us with like a 9T and after he raises I feel like after he bets we can still ship it over the top with fold equity. We raised to 4bb, he calls 4, 1.5 sb and bb so pot is 9.5 bbs, we c-bet 6.5bb he calls, pot is now 22.5 so his turn bet is going to be somewhere around 15-20bb and he still has left over 65-75bbs which leaves us with plenty of fold equity when we shove, even if he does call us when he hits like a pair or something or over pair we still have outs, and we show a nice profit of 10-12bbs when he folds.

I do agree with your statement " If we check to villain, most aggressive regs will bet almost 90% of the time" and that is certainly true but by check raising only thing we win off him is a c-bet when he has air, but by c-betting we get him to float us with his air and win a lot more when he tries to bluff us on the turn, even though my way of playing is more variance I feel like it's better in the long run, thus is why we should have a decent enough brm to be able to support these kind of plays where we take that small edge we have.
 
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