Breaking Even at 1-2 NL Live 5 months normal? 30 hours a week

Aaron Soto

Aaron Soto

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I play 1-2 nl live cash games full ring. Started with 2k roll.
1st month June- lost 2100 (yes entire roll)
2nd month July- won 2600
3rd month- August- won 998
4th month- September- won 406
5th month- October- lost 700 (running so awful)

Currently at about 1200$ in profit lol. I literally play poker about 30 hours a week if not more. From June to today. Is this normal? Time to just give it up????
 
bmw13

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i think is normal ... don;t forget at live the hands are quite slowly ...your profit is 2$/h its really not good at that stake you should have 10$ ... maybe you had big bad beats or you have some weak spots where you have them to improve.
Try to focus more and try again 5 months.
 
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braveslice

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Guys I know he is great perso, but he asked help. I also know he didn't give any reasonable information to give input, but minimum job is to ask missing information. I'm no person to open tracking.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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Is this normal? Time to just give it up????

I'm a weekend 2/5 live player who has been at about $21 / hour for a few years, averaging about 500 hours a year live. I've been playing at Foxwoods for more than 20 years. I've seen a lot of players say that they are going pro.

Most don't make it. So yes, it's completely normal. It's the most normal outcome. There's no shame in it. Most are smart people, who probably go on to be successful at other things in life.

$1200 / (5 months * 4 weeks in a month * 30 hours a week) = $1200 / 600 hours = $2 / hour, as BMW said.

Six hundred hours is a decent sample size, so you are right to be asking yourself this question at about this time.

Interesting video from Neeme on this topic. The good stuff starts 9 minutes in:

It's difficult to say whether you should quit.

What are your other options in life? Do you love being at the poker table for that much time?

Have you identified your weaknesses, and put together a plan to fix them? If you haven't, you need to if you want to continue. Just continuing to play and learn from experience is a painfully slow way to progress.

If you are having trouble identifying your weaknesses, playing online 9-max and using tools like a HUD and Leak Buster can help a lot.
It's so much easier to review your hands online. The online game is different, but most players who master the online game can adapt to the live game.

If you have made a plan and worked hard to execute it, and it hasn't worked, it may be time to decide to pursue something else.

GL to you, whichever way you decide to go.
 
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Slider23

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The average poker pro makes about 30K per year according to poker author, playing pro and poker instructor A. Fitzgerald. You may want to consider taking a job as a poker dealer as it will keep you around the game and give you an income while you work on improving your game. It is very difficult to make a living today playing poker because of the massive amount of information available to all players.
 
Aaron Soto

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Hey thank you all for all your words of wisdom. I've been trying to make a living at the tables for so long now maybe like 2-3 years and it just hasn't worked out. I don't make enough money at it.

"AlextheOwl" this quote makes so much sense to me...."If you have made a plan and worked hard to execute it, and it hasn't worked, it may be time to pursue something else in life"...it makes sense because I have literally tried everything possible to be a consistent winning player....I guess not enough.

Yes I have many weaknesses in my game I know exactly what they are too. I honestly do not think that 1-2 NL Live is profitable enough of a game to make consistent returns. There simply is way to many players in the hand and the game is very "screwy". I been running bad that is without a doubt. I know that for sure.
 
mtl mile end

mtl mile end

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If you can do it, calculate the rake that you've paid. It will probably be close to your net winnings (if you're really grinding). Your profits may be only $1200, but you've won so much more. If you can't get an accurate rate calculation on these 600+ hours played, try to calculate the rake on any table you play at for the session. I think you may be shocked.

At small stakes, it's really hard to beat the rake. I understand from other threads that 2/5 is uncapped where you play. This is a problem. If you are a good player, you may be more successful at higher stakes. However, playing uncapped will cause painful, horrifying swings. Find a cardroom with capped 2/5, or even better, capped 1/3 and feel it out. If you can grind it out even or +$2/hr at 1/2, you're doing OK.

Or the solution for so many of life's problems; move to Montreal ;)
 
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mtl mile end

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I'm a weekend 2/5 live player who has been at about $21 / hour for a few years, averaging about 500 hours a year live. I've been playing at Foxwoods for more than 20 years. I've seen a lot of players say that they are going pro.

Is 2/5 capped at Foxwoods?
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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Is 2/5 capped at Foxwoods?

Yes, because higher limits are offered there. The highest limit is uncapped.

It's true that the rake is a bigger obstacle at 1/2, but the relative weakness of the players more than makes up for it in most USA cardrooms, especially nights and weekends. I've heard of outrageous rakes at some underground rooms, charity rooms, and in some other countries.

I cannot recommend 2/5 without mastering 1/2 first. I don't think you need a 1/2 winrate of 10BB/hour to move up, but you need at least 6BB/hour - 8BB/hour is probably smarter -and a healthy bankroll. Good 2/5 players love the smell of scared money.
 
Bozovicdj

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It is definitely not the time to give up. You seem to be quite accurate when it comes to wins and losses, try to memorize your winning and losing hands as well. It might be better to focus on your game rather then amounts of money you earn or lose.

600+ hours is not really a big amount of time to think about quitting.
D. Negreanu said that he started playing poker when he was 16, 8hrs a day, 5 workdays a week trying to make a monthly pay he would originally get working in some coffee shop. Once he felt he is good enough he started with bigger stakes, and look at where it got him :)

That being said, figure out some adequate number as a goal on a monthly basis, and go from there. If u end up beneath it over a years period, it might be better to rethink playing professionally :)

With info you gave so far, I can only advise not to give up, just be patient :)
 
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AlexTheOwl

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It is definitely not the time to give up. You seem to be quite accurate when it comes to wins and losses, try to memorize your winning and losing hands as well. It might be better to focus on your game rather then amounts of money you earn or lose.

Yes I have many weaknesses in my game I know exactly what they are too.

You are encouraging him to try to make it as a pro, but you don't even credit him with being a thinking player? It sounds to me like he has been focusing on his game. Poker is hard.

600+ hours is not really a big amount of time to think about quitting.
D. Negreanu said that he started playing poker when he was 16, 8hrs a day, 5 workdays a week trying to make a monthly pay he would originally get working in some coffee shop. Once he felt he is good enough he started with bigger stakes, and look at where it got him :)

This is like advising someone that they shouldn't give up on the idea of being a tennis pro, because Roger Federer worked hard at tennis once, and now look where he is. Very few people are good enough to go pro at any game or sport. That's not negative thinking, it's the simple truth.

That being said, figure out some adequate number as a goal on a monthly basis, and go from there. If u end up beneath it over a years period, it might be better to rethink playing professionally :)

I've been trying to make a living at the tables for so long now maybe like 2-3 years and it just hasn't worked out.

Bozovicdj, I hope you are better at reading hands than you are at reading CC posts!
 
Bozovicdj

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My point was, that breaking even is not bad, definitely not a reason to give up playing professionally.
Also, knowing your weaknesses is only the first step into improving your play, and if you constantly think about the money, there is no much room for improvement.

Definition of playing poker professionally is making money solely on playing poker, not depending on what the earnings are.

I play poker professionally and i earn around 1000$ a month (average pay in my country is round 400-450$), but it took me a while to get there (I am playing for about 5 years now). I do not consider myself a genius, just a hardworker, and from my perspective more then a few people can play professionally only if they set their mind into it properly, and not give up after latest 5 months of breaking even, or even after rough first 2-3 years.

Considering reading abilities, I am just another fish at the tables :D
 
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AlexTheOwl

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My point was, that breaking even is not bad, definitely not a reason to give up playing professionally.

Breaking even at the lowest game offered at cardrooms, after several years of trying, is not a reason to give up playing professionally? Do you really mean that?

If I owned a business that made no money for three years, and I had already tried my best plan to fix it, should I close the business, or keep doing what I am doing? How should I feed myself?

I know people are trying to be encouraging and supportive, but Aaron seems like a bright guy who needs to quit this and go be successful at something else. If you are smart enough to break even at poker, you are smart enough for a lot of things.

Breaking even is great for a recreational player. Most recs lose. Pros need to be the best players, not just good ones.
 
Bozovicdj

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exactly why I said the following in the first post:

"That being said, figure out some adequate number as a goal on a monthly basis, and go from there. If u end up beneath it over a years period, it might be better to rethink playing professionally "

AlexTheOwl, you are just not giving me a break man :)
 
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Napkins420

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It's so incredibly easy to make $400 in 8 hours playing 1/2 live.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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It's so incredibly easy to make $400 in 8 hours playing 1/2 live.

$50 / hour? If this was true, poker rooms would be the size of airplane hangers and society would collapse. Why work retail, or be a health care aide, when you can make $50 / hour playing a game?

If it's easy for you, good for you.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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exactly why I said the following in the first post:

"That being said, figure out some adequate number as a goal on a monthly basis, and go from there. If u end up beneath it over a years period, it might be better to rethink playing professionally "

AlexTheOwl, you are just not giving me a break man :)

You are saying things that don't make much sense (being break-even for years is not a reason to quit).
Then you pretend that somehow that statement did make sense, because . . . you also said something else that doesn't make much sense (try for a year, after he has been trying for three years).

NO BREAKS FOR YOU!

Maybe I am being harsh, but when you put ideas and opinions in an internet forum, expect people to evaluate your reasoning.
 
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Napkins420

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$50 / hour? If this was true, poker rooms would be the size of airplane hangers and society would collapse. Why work retail, or be a health care aide, when you can make $50 / hour playing a game?

If it's easy for you, good for you.

It is easy, you just have to be patient and wait for premium hands. There is ALWAYS a donnk at 1/2 that wants to pay you off
 
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AlexTheOwl

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It is easy, you just have to be patient and wait for premium hands. There is ALWAYS a donnk at 1/2 that wants to pay you off

No.

You are seeing about 30 hands per hour live, so 240 hands in 8 hours. What are premium cards?
Maybe {JJ+,AQs+,AKo}?

That's 3.2% of cards, so expect to see about 240*.032 = 8 hands with premium cards.

Ignoring the blinds and the rake, you need to win an average of $100 every time you have premium cards.

Sometimes you will raise and get no callers.

Sometimes your opponents will miss the flop and fold, and you will win a small pot.

Sometimes you will lose.
Against just one random opponent with two random cards, those premium cards will lose 25% of the time.
But you won't be up against only one opponent in many cases, and your opponents will only choose above average cards to play against you, not two random cards.
If you win 65% of the time, you are doing very well.
And since you are likely to be in a raised pot, and you are likely to make or call one or more bets post-flop, when you lose, the loss is likely to be substantial.

Sometimes you will win a big pot, but how big? Most rooms have a $300 max buy in. Many players buy in for less. You are usually going to have to win several big pots, and not lose any, to reach $800.

Now the blinds. If you are nine handed, you will pay (240 / 9)*3 = $80 in blinds in those eight hours. Sometimes you will have a premium hand in the blinds, and sometimes you will chop or get a "walk". But you can figure on folding at least $60 in blinds.

It is certainly possible to win $800 or more in 8 hours at 1/2. It is not possible, much less easy, to do it on a regular basis.
 
Bozovicdj

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He said that he is trying 2-3 years to play professionally but as I understood, he is only trying at 1/2 for 5 months now (guessed his previous playing period was with lower stakes, learning the game better etc.), where he had 3 months of winning streak, with losing big only on the first month (guessed the reason is adjusting to the game). So that's not big of a reason to quit just yet.

Considering, he had 2600 profit on the second month whilst being under pressure from first month's loss, means he is perfectly capable of making money in poker. The average personal income per year is 30000$ in America, meaning 2500$ per month - which is within his capabilities. Just remember, he is playing for 30hrs a week while the average work hours in America are between 35 and 40.

All this being said, I am encouraging him to keep playing as is, because he can make the average salary, in less time then it would averagely take a working man.

Yes I have many weaknesses in my game I know exactly what they are too. I honestly do not think that 1-2 NL Live is profitable enough of a game to make consistent returns. There simply is way to many players in the hand and the game is very "screwy". I been running bad that is without a doubt. I know that for sure.


I said that he should try and find more adequate number as a monthly goal because if he thinks that 1/2 is not profitable enough, and that his losses are accounted for (running bad, screwy game, too many loose players...), then he should even try to play at bigger stakes and try to win it.

It is ok to be harsh, just not too much, after all, we don't know the complete background over 2-3 years period prior to the last 5 months. :):):)
 
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He said that he is trying 2-3 years to play professionally but as I understood, he is only trying at 1/2 for 5 months now (guessed his previous playing period was with lower stakes, learning the game better etc.)

I can understand why you might make this assumption, but at most card rooms in the USA $1/$2 is the lowest stakes game offered.

I said that he should try and find more adequate number as a monthly goal because if he thinks that 1/2 is not profitable enough, and that his losses are accounted for (running bad, screwy game, too many loose players...), then he should even try to play at bigger stakes and try to win it.

If a player cannot beat a lower-stakes game, they should not play higher stakes on a regular basis for profit. The exception is if the rake makes the lower-stakes game unbeatable, but that is definitely not the case at most US cardrooms.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Live poker is tough man, but it isn't unbeatable.

A good 1/2 player should make $15/$25 an hour. I have a friend who makes $40+/hour at 1/2.


There are a few things you are probably doing wrong. Without someone to help you, you may never figure it out on your own. Someone helped me up my game.



As far as winrates go, I believe they change sometimes faster than we can put a sample in. A good sample is like 600 hours minimum. It is possible we have changed as a player in those 600 hours.


Yes I have had bad runs for months. They are soul crushing. Is this what you're going through? Perhaps. Perhaps not.


My advice to you would be this....

Get a notepad App for your smart phone.

Note all hands you can, in real time. It doesn't matter how you do it, just make sure to get all the important information in there, like position, stack sizes of yourself, and villains in the hand, what position you are postflop, real time reads/history.


It might seem like a Herculean task, but once you get used to it, it's fairly easy. The downside is that you won't be able to pay as close attention to the game.


Here is an example of notes I take after a hand is played. I did this for over a year to work on my game. It helped me more than I could've imagined.

1. CO ($200) Qc-10c. 1L, we raise to $12, only SB calls. He has $40 back. Flop Qd-6h-4h. Checks, we bet $17, he jams for $40, we call. I know without a doubt we have him. Turn 8x, river Ad. He shows A-Jo. (-$52)




So, you write down hands. You need to have someone who has live experience look them over, and give you input.


I will give you some general tips, they apply to 1/2.

Unless we have seen evidence at showdown , when passive players raise, they have 2p+, period. Don't call off with your AA when some fish C/R jams on K-8-3r. He has you. I stress the seeing evidence part. You may suspect you are being bluffed. Until you actually see a hand show down, where this guy was bluffing or raising a draw, he has 2p+. Biggest money saver for me ever.


Watch these folks play. They limp, then call, then fold, or hit TP and lose money because they have a terrible hand. When you see these super passive limp/callers raise pre, they have monster hands dude. They are so passive some of them won't even raise AK. So if you are calling opens from passive players, you better be setmining, or you better have a good hand that flops well. Follow the 10/20/30 rule. This applies to implied odds. 10x back effective for setmine minimum. 20x back for SCs minimum. 30x back for SGs, minimum. This means $15 open, you need to be at least 300 deep post flop to call him with 9-8s. If the guy has 200 back, and you calling him with 7-5s, you are lighting money on fire somewhat.

So yeah, I fold AQ to a single open many times. They are scared money most times. They don't open bullshit. They limp rags, limp dominated hands. The raise premium, like OMG tight range. Don't be calling opens with trouble hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/AT, etc.



Be aware of your image. If you have a losing image, you're not winning hands, you won't get away with anything dude. Don't bluff. Play tight. If you have a winning image, people fear you more, and you can get away with more. Don't force action with a shitty image. If you've been really active, be aware of that. If you have played 5 hands in the last two orbits, and won without showdown, your opponents probably think you are out of line. It can be called "the tension meter" (John a coined this I think). If the tension meter gets high, some V is about to implode, and call you down. Be aware of this. Know your image. Don't push it. If you have a bad image, you won't be able to even get a cbet through man.



You should generally know how to classify players at the table. You should watch the action as often as possible. Watch what people show up with. I'm certain you are making mistakes somewhere, you need to take notes, and discover what you're doing wrong.


Read some books about poker theory and strategy. Jonathan Little has a pretty good one on live cash games, a two-part book I think.

John A. also has one for free on here. I read it years ago.

Read "The Mental Game of Poker."



This started as a short post. I got carried away. I play live poker alot. 1/2 is so easy, it should be illegal. Yes you will run bad, but it rarely lasts longer than a month or two.


If you put the work in, and log hands, you'll get better I promise. Just be humble dude.
 
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Skott9603

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NL is hard to play while trying to build your bankroll. The variances can kill you plus, the abilities of other players vary widely. Try finding a limit game that you can limit some variances. It is a grind but you won't get felted in one hand by a lucky draw. Yes, you will still lose to draws but the amount will be more reasonable.
 
Aaron Soto

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Guy's I'm an experienced player. Simply put, I just don't think 1-2 No Limit is a profitable enough game over the long run. The reason I feel this way is that there are simply way to many players in each hand. Fish will call any bet you put out there and unfortunately once variance hits WHICH IT DOES, AND IT WILL. You can find yourself down a a thousand. I do have some weaknesses. I plan to jump back into the 1-3 games. I used to do pretty good on the 1-3 and my results were much better then this 1-2 crap. Here are my results for the 1-2 over this 6 month stretch. This will probably be my last time playing 1-2 since simply put, I do not think it is profitable of a game enough.

This is the exact data:

543 hours total
Net Profit: -350$
Buy-In Amount a day = 200$ (yes I did tilt some of these days very bad and lost around 500 to 600)
Total Days Played = 87
May = -810
June = -735
July = +768
August = +706
September = +498
October = -777

Total Profit = -350$
 

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