Okay, I know the correct manner for calculating bluff odds
, but does anyone else have a problem with it?
For example, I think a lot of people know that betting 1/2 pot needs to work 1/3 of the time to break-even.
Let's say pot is $100 and we're betting $50, the calculation to find the break-even point is as follows:
Your Bet / (Current Pot + Your Bet)
so in this example: $50/($100+$50) = .333 or 33%
We need our opponent to fold 33% of the time for us to break-even. This is because 66% of the time we lose our $50 bet, 33% of the time we win the $100 pot, so we calculate: .666(-$50) + .333($100) = $0
Now I fully understand the whole concept that once you put money in the pot, it's no longer yours. However, it seems the concept of "break-even" is a bit misleading.
Let's say our opponents do in fact call us 66% of the time, we're all in, and whenever called we cannot win.
When we win the pot, which we will 33% of the time, we net an actual profit of $50.
When we lose, 67% of the time, we lose $100.
.33($50) + .67(-$100) = $16.65 - $67 = -$50.35
So even though it's "Break-even" since the money in the pot is no longer ours, our actual dollar value that we earn on this play is negative. This has been bothering me for awhile, and I'd like to hear some thoughts.