This is a discussion on Bluff Catching - especially on dynamic tables. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/19902587_A895972071
This is something that I feel like I have a decent enough understanding of and have been able to profit from it from time to
This is something that I feel like I have a decent enough understanding of and have been able to profit from it from time to time, and the above video is one instance of that. Here's the thing though that I wonder about and want to get some opinions on this.
Is bluff catching +EV on random table games (IE: Zoom on PokerStars or SNAP on 888) where you're facing new opponents almost every time? I mean, sure, you'll see some people enough of the time that you'll establish some kind of read on, but the likelihood of getting into a hand like this against them is still fairly small.
In this spot, I decide to lead out because it is a draw heavy board and I can get a good sense of what my opponents are thinking.
Fold - obviously, they have nothing strong enough to continue on.
Raise - they flopped a big hand and are looking to protect that hand against any sort of draws
Call - they have possibly flopped a one pair hand or some kind of draw.
In this instance, I led out on the flop and turn and both times, the villain called. The turn was an especially good card for me because now I picked up a flush draw, and I feel that now I want to start to build some kind of pot because if the river comes out another heart, especially here given my read against my opponent, I can win a big pot because of their flop call, they probably have a diamond draw.
The river card is actually pretty good for me because now, my hand is likely capped to a one pair hand, not good enough to bet for value because I don't want to face a raise and a tougher decision. I decide to let him bluff because:
1. This person, calling my pre-flop raise does not have many 3's, or 2 pair in their range
2. The river card is a great card to check-call on because I know that they know they can't win this hand without firing out on it. They "now" are going to represent that they made a straight? To me, that story doesn't make sense and I think enough of the time, my hand is going to be good here. I know that, but they may not know that I know that.
3. Flatting my lead on two earlier streets is telling me it's most likely they had a flush draw of their own but the river bricked, but that they're also playing it so passively, they don't have a larger pocket pair or a set.
I have approximately 3.5 to 1 odds on a call, and based on my math, unless I'm mistaken, I have to be right at least 22% of the time to profit, so if I am right once every four times, I come out ahead.
What do you think? Is bluff catching +EV or -EV when you are playing against a large (random) pool of opponents every hand?
15th July 2016, 7:26 PM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
I think J8 is not a card you should raise UTG to begin with. If you hit it makes you lead out on the flop and create a huge pot with only J8 out position. -EV i would say but it all depends on your experience. If its profitable for you then i would suggest you continue this strategy.
15th July 2016, 11:59 PM
Poker at: ACR
River is 100% standard but pre is pretty bad. What other plays do you have on river besides x/calling? x/fold? Fire a 3rd barrel with top pair no kicker(essentially bluffing). I think you are over analyzing a pretty simple spot but I get it that you just started playing. You are for sure over thinking though, work on your preflop hand ranges and then come back to worrying about villains at 5NL thinking about your capped range and bluff catching.
I honestly prefer a x/call on the flop myself with this hand because we can never call a raise and we don't want to be pushed off our hand. The only worse hands that call your flop bet are flush draws that will bet themselves when checked to.
I wouldn't say your range is "capped" on the river? You raised UTG pre and bet flop, bet turn. If anything villain should put you on TPTK+ by now or a bluff which is why I like villains river sizing here because Ax bluffs should fold to this price. Sure you mostly have 1 pair hands on the river but they are the nut 1 pair hands and x/folding them should never happen on this river.
17th July 2016, 3:43 AM
Game: NL HE
unless your opponent is a calling station and you can value bet very thin
17th July 2016, 11:16 AM
re: Poker & Bluff Catching - especially on dynamic tables.
Yeah, just prefer a x/call otf with backdoor hearts. Diamonds are going to probably stab. Without hearts just firing. J8hh bad open from UTG no matter how bad the table is, unless you have 5 8/8 nits playing 6-max lol.
Turn is a x/call too to avoid getting blown off our equity. Diamonds are probably stabbing anyway. River pretty standard x/call for that sizing. Expect to see a lot of busted draws and the occasional KJs/AJ. Two pair/3s are pretty much never betting that small when all the draws miss and should expect us to be x/calling a lot.
I think his range is capped otr, but im not too completely sure. His best hand here is probably TPGK. I think TPTK+ barrels the river except for exactly AJ. QQ-AA/sets are a mandatory 3-barrel for value given that we don't block Jx. So I think our range here is mostly missed hearts/diamonds/KJs/QJs.