Bluff Catching - especially on dynamic tables.
This is something that I feel like I have a decent enough understanding of and have been able to profit from it from time to time, and the above video is one instance of that. Here's the thing though that I wonder about and want to get some opinions on this.
Is bluff catching +EV on random table games (IE: Zoom on PokerStars
or SNAP on 888
) where you're facing new opponents almost every time? I mean, sure, you'll see some people enough of the time that you'll establish some kind of read on, but the likelihood of getting into a hand like this against them is still fairly small.
In this spot, I decide to lead out because it is a draw heavy board and I can get a good sense of what my opponents are thinking.
Fold - obviously, they have nothing strong enough to continue on.
Raise - they flopped a big hand and are looking to protect that hand against any sort of draws
Call - they have possibly flopped a one pair hand or some kind of draw.
In this instance, I led out on the flop and turn and both times, the villain called. The turn was an especially good card for me because now I picked up a flush draw, and I feel that now I want to start to build some kind of pot because if the river comes out another heart, especially here given my read against my opponent, I can win a big pot because of their flop call, they probably have a diamond draw.
The river card is actually pretty good for me because now, my hand is likely capped to a one pair hand, not good enough to bet for value because I don't want to face a raise and a tougher decision. I decide to let him bluff because:
1. This person, calling my pre-flop raise does not have many 3's, or 2 pair in their range
2. The river card is a great card to check-call on because I know that they know they can't win this hand without firing out on it. They "now" are going to represent that they made a straight? To me, that story doesn't make sense and I think enough of the time, my hand is going to be good here. I know that, but they may not know that I know that.
3. Flatting my lead on two earlier streets is telling me it's most likely they had a flush draw of their own but the river bricked, but that they're also playing it so passively, they don't have a larger pocket pair or a set.
I have approximately 3.5 to 1 odds
on a call, and based on my math, unless I'm mistaken, I have to be right at least 22% of the time to profit, so if I am right once every four times, I come out ahead.
What do you think? Is bluff catching +EV or -EV when you are playing against a large (random) pool of opponents every hand?