Bet Sizing & Stack Size Quiz

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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So I rarely see any discussion about bet-sizing in the hand analysis forum, but I think its a pretty key issue. So, here's a quiz on the topic. Post which bet size is right for each scenario, and more importantly, why.

This is assuming $1/$2 NLHE full ring in an average online game, and that you have a $10,000 stack (effective stack size will be determined by villain's stack size).

Hopefully after these have been discussed a bit, someone else will post some more.

Situation #1

You are holding :jh4: :jc4:.
Villain's stats are 30/4/0.5

Preflop: You raise to $6, button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: :as4::jd4::3s4:

Potsize = $15.00

Villain has $185.00 left.

Hero checks, bets $7.50, $10, or $14.50?



Situation #2

You are holding :8h4: :8c4:.
Villain's stats are 15/10/1.75

Preflop: Villain raises from early position, we call, blinds fold.

Flop: :as4::8d4::7s4:

Potsize = $15.00

Villain checks, Hero...

Villain has $265 left.

Hero checks, bets $7.50, $10, or $14.50?


Situation #3

You are holding :ah4: :kc4:
Villain's stats are 15/13/3.5

Preflop: You raise to $6, button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: :as4::jd4::3s4:

Potsize = $15.00

Villain has $55.00 left.

Hero checks, bets $7.50, $10, or $14.50?




Situation #4

You are holding :ah4: :ac4:
Villain's stats are 15/10/1.65

Preflop: You raise to $6 from the button, big blind calls.

Flop: :kc4::9h4::3s4:

Potsize = $13.00

Villain checks, Hero bets $11.00, Villain calls.

Turn:
:kc4::9h4::3s4::2d4:

Potsize = $33.00

Villain checks, Hero bets $26.00, Villain calls.

River: :kc4::9h4::3s4::2d4::2c4:

Potsize = $85.00

Villain has $180 left.

Villain checks, Hero....

Hero checks, bets $35.00, $52.00, or $80.00?


Situation #5

You are holding :10c4::10d4:.
Villain's stats are 20/10/1.0

Preflop: Hero raises to $6, button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: :ks4::kh4::8c4:

Potsize = $15.00

Villain has $185 left.

Hero checks, bets $9.00, $11, or $15.00?
 
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OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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*Disclaimer - despite having had it explained to me a bunch of times, I still suck with PT numbers*

Here goes my thoughts.

Situation 1 - I like $10, though I'll sometimes go for a check-raise or maybe even a check-call. $10 shouldn't scare them away completely, particularly if they're holding an ace, but it should also give flush draws the wrong odds to chase us. So it's the balance point between getting value and protecting against draws.

Situation 2 - Again, I like $10 for much the same reasons as above. For what it's worth, and in addition to the above, that's about the amount I'd be making it when I bluff too. If villain's noticed this then it should help our cause - if they haven't... meh, we've still got the above reasons.

Situation 3 - This is where my PT numbers suckiness comes into play: the villain is both aggressive and short-stacked, right? If that's the case, I think I go for $14.50, trying to make it look like a steal and induce a shove. $7.50 hoping for a raise we can shove over the top of, or a call so we can shove the turn, would be my second option.

Situation 4 - This one hurt my brain a little, since we're likely either way ahead or way behind. I'll take $52 and call a shove, then roll my eyes when the villain turns over 99.

Situation 5 - $9, I think. It's what I'd bet if I had a king, hoping to get action. Trouble with this board is either the villain's missed completely and we'll get no action, or they've hit and we're way behind. So $9 also serves the purpose of losing us the least the times that we're behind.
 
zachvac

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my opinion on these:

1. $14.50. He's a loose passive opponent, unlikely to raise us, and likely to call. We want as much money in here, we're trying to build a big pot.

2. $14.50, again we want a big pot. If this is an ace he is most likely check-calling this here. We have a big hand, we want a big pot, bet pot here.

3. Deeper stacks I check here, these stacks make it a bit tough. With a pot sized bet we still give villain implied odds to draw to the flush on the turn. So I'd be inclined to bet half pot here, obviously stacking if we get raised, but if called we try to see a cheap showdown if a spade hits otherwise we look to commit on the turn.

4. I would probably check this turn, but as played I think I bet $35 here. The only hand we beat that calls this is AK and they're not calling a decent sized bet. Bet $35, justify in his mind that he's getting good odds with his AK.

5. I bet $9 here. We want to induce calls from Ax that thinks we're just cbetting air here. Against a more aggressive opponent I'd check this since we're likely to see a check-raise that we really can't call with TT. We want to keep the pot small and not over-commit with an underpair while also inducing worse hands to call us.
 
WVHillbilly

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#1: I like betting $10. We want to build this pot before the before any scary action killing cards fall. If villain has an Ace he will call and if he has a small pair we weren't going to get action anyway. We need to bet also because our villain is very passive and can't be counted on to bet if we don't.

#2: Check. Tightish villain raised from EP but checked when an Ace hit the flop suggests that he likely has a pair under Aces. FD is such a remote possibility that we can basically discount it and give a free card to what is likely 2 outs. Checking behind here may induce the villain to bet the turn but he's much too likely to fold if we bet the flop.

#3: Check, with the plan to CRAI when our aggressive short stacked villain bets.

4: Value bet $52. If the board hadn't paired I might check behind in case he was defending with K9/K3 and flopped 2 pair. As it is bet the river to see if he'll call 3 bets with just Kx.

#5: I bet it like I would if I had it, $11. Against an aggressive opponent I'd probably check-call or even check-fold, but against a more passive villain I think leading out is the better play.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Aight, I'll throw my two cents in here. I'm not saying my answers are right, but I'd like to think I have some logic behind them.

zachvac said:
1. $14.50. He's a loose passive opponent, unlikely to raise us, and likely to call. We want as much money in here, we're trying to build a big pot.
This is part of it. However, there's another key point...

We want villain's whole stack. And he's passive. So if we bet pot on the flop & turn, the pot size on the river will be:

15+14.50+14.50 = 44+42+42 = 128

Villain will then have exactly 185-14.50-42 = $128.50, making an easy river shove for us to get his whole stack. However, if we bet less...

15+10+10 = 35+35+35 = 105 pot size on river
185-10-35 = 140 remaining for villain on river

We'll have to overbet the river to get all of villain's remaining $. So against this villain, we need to be betting close to pot on all 3 streets.

WVHillBilly said:
#2: Check. Tightish villain raised from EP but checked when an Ace hit the flop suggests that he likely has a pair under Aces.
While I wouldn't check, because villain may be trying to get fancy, you are getting to the right idea. We still want $ to go in the pot.

Also, villain is no longer a retard. He's going to notice huge pot-sized bets being thrown at him. Also, he's deeper, so we can't stack him by pounding each street. We need him to raise at least one street against us to get all in.

Also, since he's a lot deeper, we want room to maneuver and fold if the turn & river come spade, spade, and he gets angry.

So this is a double edged sword. He's showing weakness, but he's also a lot deeper than situation #1. So a smaller bet size is more likely to get a raise, and to leave us room to play a pot with a villain so deep.

WVHillBilly said:
#3: Check, with the plan to CRAI when our aggressive short stacked villain bets.
Bingo. Pretty much any bet that villain makes will get him committed. And he's very aggressive & likely to bet. So I'd either check, or you could make an argument for a half pot bet if you think villain will raise. I usually CRAI in these spots for what its worth.

WVHillBilly said:
4: Value bet $52. If the board hadn't paired I might check behind in case he was defending with K9/K3 and flopped 2 pair.
I think this is getting to the heart of the matter. The range that beats us is very small. Villain has called us for 2 streets, and checked the river to us. The odds that he has a big hand like a set or a 2 (since that's all that beats us) is VERY small.

Also, we're in a steal situation. Villain is more likely to think we are bluffing. Since we are ahead of a huge majority of villain's range, I'd probably bet out 80$ here, and represent a bluff. Villain should also be thinking that its very rare for us to fire on all three streets without a monster, so it makes our range quite small. Which is good if we're trying to inspire someone to make a hero call on the river.

I honestly don't know what's best for this situation, but that's probably how I'd play it.

Oz said:
So $9 also serves the purpose of losing us the least the times that we're behind.
Correct. We'd like a small pot. Our hand is very likely ahead, and villains can call with worse. However, its very unlikely to improve our hand, and we're not going to commit with this hand either.

So keep the pot small, c-bet like usual, check turn, and try to inspire villain to re-steal the pot on the river.

Thoughts?
 
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