re: Poker & Bet sizing help!
Originally Posted by light65536
Is that 1-8 to 1-7 ON the flop or including the turn and river? I calculated by taking 2 outs * 3 = 6%. 2 outs * 5 = 10% I was just calculating ON the flop and not per flop
That's not how you calculate the probability of getting 3-of-a-kind, though. Typically what you do is multiply the probability that none of the first three cards is one of the two you need, and then deduct that from 1.
There are 50 cards in the deck that aren't in your hand. 48 of them will NOT give you a set on the first card. After that has been dealt, there are 49 cards left of which 47 will not give you a set. The probability flopping
a set is:
1 - (48/50) * (47/49) * (46/48) = 0,117551 = 11.8%.
The probability of hitting a set if you see all five community cards is
1- (48/50) * (47/49) * (46/48) * (45/47) * (44/46) = 0.191837 = ~19%.
On the topic of bet sizing, I wrote a few blog posts about it awhile back:
Sizing Your Bets in No-limit, Part I: Preflop and the Cumulative Effect » Online Poker Blog
Sizing Your Bets in No-limit, Part Ib: An Addendum » Online Poker Blog (http://www.cardschat.com/blog/05/17/sizing-your-bets-in-no-limit-part-ib-an-addendum/)
Bet-sizing, Part IIa: Making Decisions Easy » Online Poker Blog (http://www.cardschat.com/blog/05/20/bet-sizing-part-iia-making-decisions-easy/)
Bet-sizing, Part IIb: Making Decisions Easy » Online Poker Blog (http://www.cardschat.com/blog/05/25/bet-sizing-part-iib-making-decisions-easy/)
Bet-sizing, Part IIc: Making Decisions Easy » Online Poker Blog (http://www.cardschat.com/blog/05/28/bet-sizing-part-iic-making-decisions-easy/)
Bet-sizing, Part III: Bluffing (http://www.cardschat.com/blog/06/11/bet-sizing-part-iii-bluffing/) » Online Poker Blog