Best line vs suspected over pair?

(assume the flop comes all undercards to our over pair)


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aliengenius

aliengenius

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Say we have approx. stacks of $t2000 each, blinds are 40/20, six handed.
We open raise w QQ to 110 utg +1, get re-raised by a semi-passive player to 330.

What's the best line to avoid going broke vs KK or AA?

or is this option number five: "cold deck, we are going broke" ?
(edit: can a mod add as #5?)
 
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daxter70

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does the SPP have AA or KK or are we putting him on that??

call preflop is warranted no doubt..and if we know for sure...a ck/r on flop to see where we stand, then ck call (depend on size of bet) or ck it down so long as no A or K comes, if hes on AK, AQ, then we take it down risk minimal...open shove flop or turn we have to fold.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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I strongly suspected AA or KK (six ways to make those hands each = 12), but AK is possible, I think it is the only other hand that would re-raise preflop (16 ways to make AK).
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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does the SPP have AA or KK or are we putting him on that??

call preflop is warranted no doubt..and if we know for sure...a ck/r on flop to see where we stand, then ck call (depend on size of bet) or ck it down so long as no A or K comes, if hes on AK, AQ, then we take it down risk minimal...open shove flop or turn we have to fold.


Isn't a check raise going to pretty much commit us though?
We have about 1700 left after the call, there is 600 in the pot-- if he bets the pot don't we then have to shove to put in a 'real' raise of 3x his bet?
 
daxter70

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Isn't a check raise going to pretty much commit us though?
We have about 1700 left after the call, there is 600 in the pot-- if he bets the pot don't we then have to shove to put in a 'real' raise of 3x his bet?

first AG..i saw the 2000 and the 0s ran together...i thought 20K..for some odd ass reason..lol...but i would say a ck raise if he bets 1/3 of pot or less... ive seen AK bet 100 to the river on that board...and a ck/ ck would reveal his weakness....

continued with my QQ bet to underboard yesterday on BLODOG and AQ (insert ##^(@%# name) called all the way down for A on river....so strange play out there...but you already know that!!!!:cool:
 
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Craized

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I had a similar situation in a ring game when I was holding KK and villian AA, I posted it in the analysis section, you can read the responses here. Basically it comes down to knowing your opponent and, if you think you're beat, laying it down (not as easy as it sounds, I know).

Your best option in my opinion is reraising preflop and fold if he shoves. You have to know your opponent well enough to know that he wouldn't shove on JJ or worse though.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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continued with my QQ bet to underboard yesterday on BLODOG and AQ (insert ##^(@%# name) called all the way down for A on river....so strange play out there...but you already know that!!!!:cool:

Basically it comes down to knowing your opponent and, if you think you're beat, laying it down (not as easy as it sounds, I know).

Your best option in my opinion is reraising preflop and fold if he shoves. You have to know your opponent well enough to know that he wouldn't shove on JJ or worse though.

Yeah, I see AK get played poorly a lot. Unfortunately it was pretty early, so other than a sense of slight passivity on my opponents part, I couldn't make a definite read, even though my inclination was toward KK or AA. Anyway, I re-re-raised preflop, then called his shove (getting 2:1), cause I'm a donk like that.

I'm leaning toward call and lead as the best option.
 
blankoblanco

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Your best option in my opinion is reraising preflop and fold if he shoves. You have to know your opponent well enough to know that he wouldn't shove on JJ or worse though.

reraise-folding is horrrrrrrrrrible. assuming you make an effective raise (to $1000 like in the poll), you'll be getting 3:1 on a call, meaning even if his range is AA-KK-AK only, you should call

4betting QQ against this type of passive player from EP is bad in general, not to mention with these stacks sizes. you're turning your hand into a bluff. he puts more money in the pot with every hand that beats you and likely folds everything you beat (this is a great way to scare out JJ-TT and get no value whatsoever)

just call and play poker. flop action depends on the board texture and more specific reads
 
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J

joeeagles

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I'm leaning toward call and lead as the best option.

So do I, and for many reasons. Lets start with the range. This player is semi-passive, which means that chances are slim he's 3betting with JJ or less. He either has AA, KK or AK.

Option 1 in the poll can't be pursued because a) stacks are too small b) AK could shove as well so we're forced to call. Also, we're getting 3 to 1 if he shoves, which doesn't make the call correct vs AA or KK but because of the chance of it being AK our call wouldn't be wrong either.

Option 3 again isn't good because any proper check/raise has us committed. Even if he leads out 1/2 pot (350) we'd have to raise to 1000(ish), which is almost like shoving with the stack amount it leaves us with.

Option 4 isn't good because we know a c-bet is coming whatever the flop brings, so folding to 2/3 pot bet is weak unless there is an overcard. I'd have to see him bet the turn also to consider folding. This modified option isn't terrible though (folding on the turn if he fires again with no overcards on the board), and it could be worth considering against a semi-passive player. If he fires twice on a ragged board I'll give him credit for a better hand (or the guts to do it :) ).

Option 5, well, we should give that for granted :) , he certainly is one for 3 betting us.

I like options 2 and the modified 4, because they also allow us to see the flop at the cheapest price and we can fold to an overcard/escape with the minimum loss if we understand it really is AA or KK and not AK.

Last thing I want to mention is that some may think "why even bother calling if you strongly suspect it's AA or KK?". The call is well worth it because if you hit a set you'll get his stack, so it's 220 to call with a shot at getting another 1700. The fact that it's more than 10% of your stack makes it not ideal, but considering it could also be AK justifies the call.
 
blankoblanco

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should add that our table image/stats are helpful
 
blankoblanco

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joe, he's only semi-passive, not super passive. and this is 6 handed. JJ is easily in his range, or else he's super passive IMO
 
daxter70

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Yeah, I see AK get played poorly a lot. Unfortunately it was pretty early, so other than a sense of slight passivity on my opponents part, I couldn't make a definite read, even though my inclination was toward KK or AA. Anyway, I re-re-raised preflop, then called his shove (getting 2:1), cause I'm a donk like that.

I'm leaning toward call and lead as the best option.

well what the @#$# did he have?? AK or JJ???:cool:
 
J

joeeagles

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joe, he's only semi-passive, not super passive. and this is 6 handed. JJ is easily in his range, or else he's super passive IMO

I can probably agree with your definition of semi-passive, but I based it on what AG posted. He said AK is the only other hand he'd consider besides AA and KK.

I agree with you though that one must consider JJ in his range being a 6-handed table. It still doesn't change my opinion on the way to play this. PF it's a flat call IMO. But if we put JJ in his range, then I might have to reconsider postflop play if its a ragged board.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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As far as the degree of passivity, he would raise preflop, but this was the first and only time I had seen him put in a reraise. I don't think JJ is in his range. My image is, of course, one of fear and respect ;) (ok, I'm TAG, cause it's early). I have not lost a hand, and have not shown any down either. I have been seen to come over the top of a min-raise of my continuation bet on one previous flop.

Oh, he had KK btw.

This hand is going to hurt us, one way or the other, but I just feel like there should be away to avoid going broke, even given the 50bb ish stacks.
 
pigpen02

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Last thing I want to mention is that some may think "why even bother calling if you strongly suspect it's AA or KK?". The call is well worth it because if you hit a set you'll get his stack, so it's 220 to call with a shot at getting another 1700. The fact that it's more than 10% of your stack makes it not ideal, but considering it could also be AK justifies the call.

220 for a 6/45 chance at 1700? Not exactly tournament risk odds. Fold should have been in the poll. I tacked that on to "bastard".
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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220 for a 6/45 chance at 1700? Not exactly tournament risk odds. Fold should have been in the poll. I tacked that on to "bastard".

Huh? 220 x 7.5 = 1650. He has 1700 left. If he will stack off with the overpair (and he certainly will), the odds are there. Also, I guess you didn't read the part where joe points out that AK is in the range?
Routinely folding QQ to a reraise preflop is just a bad idea.
 
OzExorcist

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Option 2 for me - there's a couple of hands in his range that we're ahead of, and there's a couple that we're way behind, but it's a good enough price to see the flop.

(BTW - I assume villain isn't one of the blinds, and we're going to be OOP for the rest of the hand?)

I'd change plan if an A or a K came on the flop, but otherwise I'd be leading and hoping it was AK we were up against. Maybe it's a failing of mine, but if we're pretty certain on our read that he'd only be holding AA/KK/AK I'd be treading lightly and playing this with an eye on the exit strategy for the hand.

An afterthought: does anyone think there's merit in representing a second ace if one falls on the flop? If KK is one of the hands we're worried about, we've gotta consider the villain would be as worried about an ace on the board as we should be. And if they've got the ace... we'll soon know about it.
 
KingCurtis

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QQ vs. KK or AA

personally i have taken notes already before on this subject. I wrote that i had QQ and raised preflop about 4 x the blind he raised and then i went all in not even thinking.....key words not even thinking lol......i should have smooth called his raise...the reason i would smooth call is that once the flop comes out an Ace or King could show which may slow me down even against AK or K something. but of course i saw QQ large as ever in front of me and went over the top and lost to AA so from now on i see the flop and ussually check fold if he comes out swinging( and if hes a tight player)
 
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If I already put the guy on KK or AA im not bothering to see the flop. I can afford to let QQ go. Its just one pair one hand.
 
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