bgomez89
Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Hey guys,
So I'm standing in the shower this morning just thinking about poker and its magnificence when I thought of something. According to the beluga theorem "Basically, the whole point of the "Baluga theorem", as I see it, is to strongly reevaluate one-pair hands facing a turn raise," or I always understood it as that a turn raise almost always means that the person has at least top pair beaten.
Recently I posted an hand here like this:
blondy944 (SB): $1.45
xgmmx (BB): $37.90
npnstuff (UTG): $11.20
Hero (MP): $11.55
Fiero GT-87 (CO): $7.35
circuitjohn (BTN): $0.95
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A ♣ K ♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, Fiero GT-87 calls $0.30, 2 folds, xgmmx calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) K ♠ J ♦ 7 ♠ (3 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $0.60, Fiero GT-87 folds, xgmmx calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.15) Q ♣ (2 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $1.70, xgmmx raises to $4, Hero ???
to which i got replies back from Sly and C9 saying to fold because of the beluga theorem.
Ok so now to what I was wondering. If the beluga theorem says that usually villain has something that beats top pair, does that mean that they will rarely fold to a shove? Consider this example:
poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 560191
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Sveno1987 (SB): $16.00
MG1801 (BB): $34.35
Sidekick44 (UTG): $7.70
freestyleoob (CO): $2.55
Hero (BTN): $25.05
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K
K
1 fold, freestyleoob raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, MG1801 calls $1
Flop: ($2.60) K
J
7
(3 players)
Hero bets $2.00, MG1801 calls $2
Turn: ($6.60) 2
(3 players)
Hero bets $5.00, MG1801 raises to $10.00
Final Pot: $16.60
The guy flats my bet on the flop and now is raising me on a brick? looks like a set to me or maybe the guy even has aces... so am I right in saying that if i shove here most likely he'll call?
or what about a situation like this:
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 560195
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
nikborzoy (MP): $10.00
Leolo L. (CO): $9.20
Samuel_0991 (BTN): $30.40
Hero (SB): $20.90
Rock4Rock (BB): $13.00
karasss1313 (UTG): $15.15
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J
A
3 folds, Samuel_0991 raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Samuel_0991 calls $0.70
Flop: ($1.90) Q
K
4
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, Samuel_0991 calls $1.40
Turn: ($4.70) 2
(2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, Samuel_0991 raises to $9.00
would it be a good idea to just shove here instead of flat calling and hopefully get hit him to bet the river?
tl;dr: if we're beluga'd on the turn will villain always call a shove?
So I'm standing in the shower this morning just thinking about poker and its magnificence when I thought of something. According to the beluga theorem "Basically, the whole point of the "Baluga theorem", as I see it, is to strongly reevaluate one-pair hands facing a turn raise," or I always understood it as that a turn raise almost always means that the person has at least top pair beaten.
Recently I posted an hand here like this:
blondy944 (SB): $1.45
xgmmx (BB): $37.90
npnstuff (UTG): $11.20
Hero (MP): $11.55
Fiero GT-87 (CO): $7.35
circuitjohn (BTN): $0.95
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A ♣ K ♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, Fiero GT-87 calls $0.30, 2 folds, xgmmx calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) K ♠ J ♦ 7 ♠ (3 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $0.60, Fiero GT-87 folds, xgmmx calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.15) Q ♣ (2 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $1.70, xgmmx raises to $4, Hero ???
to which i got replies back from Sly and C9 saying to fold because of the beluga theorem.
Ok so now to what I was wondering. If the beluga theorem says that usually villain has something that beats top pair, does that mean that they will rarely fold to a shove? Consider this example:
poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 560191
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Sveno1987 (SB): $16.00
MG1801 (BB): $34.35
Sidekick44 (UTG): $7.70
freestyleoob (CO): $2.55
Hero (BTN): $25.05
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K
1 fold, freestyleoob raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, MG1801 calls $1
Flop: ($2.60) K
Hero bets $2.00, MG1801 calls $2
Turn: ($6.60) 2
Hero bets $5.00, MG1801 raises to $10.00
Final Pot: $16.60
The guy flats my bet on the flop and now is raising me on a brick? looks like a set to me or maybe the guy even has aces... so am I right in saying that if i shove here most likely he'll call?
or what about a situation like this:
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 560195
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
nikborzoy (MP): $10.00
Leolo L. (CO): $9.20
Samuel_0991 (BTN): $30.40
Hero (SB): $20.90
Rock4Rock (BB): $13.00
karasss1313 (UTG): $15.15
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J
3 folds, Samuel_0991 raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Samuel_0991 calls $0.70
Flop: ($1.90) Q
Hero bets $1.40, Samuel_0991 calls $1.40
Turn: ($4.70) 2
Hero bets $3.00, Samuel_0991 raises to $9.00
would it be a good idea to just shove here instead of flat calling and hopefully get hit him to bet the river?
tl;dr: if we're beluga'd on the turn will villain always call a shove?