Beating the Rake ?
I am just learning poker at "the next level". I know my games and stakes are not typical of what I will see as I grow. Never played in a casino cash game, either online or live. But being a numbers guy, I am astounded at some of the math revolving around the house rake, and wonder what it takes to beat it.
Some assumptions, based on research of what is typical:
- Hands played per hour 80-100 on line 60-75 in person
- Hands played to showdown 25 per hour (live)
- Rake is 10% live, 5% online, both max at $3 or $4 per pot
- Hands with pots that pay maximum rake 25-30 per hour (???)
Using various combinations on anything from $1/$2 games on up, I seem to get a total rake per hour of about $100 - $150 whether online or live. That amounts to average of $12 - $16 per hour per player.
So if an average session is 3 hours, it seems like the house is going to take $40-$50 or so in rake. Add another $10 in dealer tips, means it costs $50-$60 or more every time you sit down at a cash table.
If these numbers are correct, it seems that the only way to win is:
Be a LOT better than everyone else at the table.
Play big enough stakes that the rake is minimized.
At a $200 buy in table, in 3 hours the house has taken $300-$450 (not including another $100 in tips) out of a total $1800 on the table, or 20-25%. So it seems I need to be 25% better than the rest of the table just to break even. At lower buy-nis, it borders on stupid.
As I said, some of my assumptions might be way off. Are they?
Am I misunderstanding something?