BB/100 Leak-rates in the Blinds

Grinderella

Grinderella

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Hi all,

I'm just wondering if we can get some heads together on this one.

In a sample of 700,000 Hands. Nathan Williams (Aka Blackrain79) was able to show that playing from the blinds showed a negative BB/100 expectation with respect to table position. The results were as follows (See attached image).

I just want to make sure I am understanding these results correctly. His net BB/100 was 8.84 overall. Now if we do the calculation again and ignore the losses in the blinds:

We get a total of (9.75 + 12.29 + 19.28 + 26.05) bb/100 for the other table positions.

= 67.37 bb/100

So my question to the forum is this:



  • Does this result mean that folding ALL hands in the blinds is correct in NL2 Cash Games based on this data?

  • Is this result specific to a certain playing style? (TAG in the case of Blackrain79)

  • If he had not played from the Blinds at all, during these 700,000 hands would his final result have been approximately 67.37 bb/100?

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted these findings! (Obviously it makes no sense to fold Aces and other strong holding simply because we are in the blinds... so this is where I'm having trouble)


"As you can see, there are some enormous differences here. In fact, I have Lossrates for both blinds. And that is actually completely normal! Nobody wins from the blinds"


- Nathan Williams.
Crushing the Microstakes pg61.




Thoughts anyone? This result came from such a huge hand sample, and if I'm wrong, I really wanna get my ass kicked on this one because I have to know.



Grinderella
 

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braveslice

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Oh what you are suggesting we should skip the blinds is unfortunately something we can’t do.

Expected win rate by folding every hand from big blind is -100bb/100, because every time you fold you lose a big blind, in similar manner folding every SB makes your win rate -50bb/100.

That said I don’t understand his database. How can he play 191k hands from early and only 91k from button? These number should be about the same! One can’t just select the position where to play, they go in order. And even in rigged site playing more early than from button is moronic =)
 
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awesome

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braveslice, you are right on the blind analysis but early position is 3 seats full ring and middle position is two seats, thus the disparity.

Most players are -40bb/100 in the BB. Anything above this is an achievement.
 
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braveslice

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@awesome awesome, too 6maxis player here :D

Lets take BB ans SB data show-off?
 
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Grinderella

Grinderella

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Cheers

Thanks guys for the feedback. And shameless 6-Max Plugs :D ... Still need some specifics on those calculations and how he reached the figure of 8.84 (Even if the data appears to be a mish-mash of 6Max and Full-Ring.

How exactly do the blinds end up showing a Net Loss overall? Given an even distribution (On average) of Premiums, Spec Hands and Garbage?
 
Grinderella

Grinderella

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Also, I've spotted a mistake in my post. I believe I should have averaged those BB/100. I forgot to divide the total.
 
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braveslice

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Yes: (-6.19-11.7+9.75 + 12.29 + 19.28 + 26.05)/6 = 8.247

Or to be more precise: bb/hand= 2480.78/0.02/701622= 0.1768
bb/100 = 0.1768 * 100 = 17.68bb/100

Lols, BB blackrain is using here refers to big bets, now a days called ptbb, it is a historical term some still use. 1 ptbb = 2bb = two big blinds

How exactly do the blinds end up showing a Net Loss overall? Given an even distribution (On average) of Premiums, Spec Hands and Garbage?

I still not quite understand the question. If you play 25% of hands when button, you lose 75% hands by folding so hard to make profit. So per 100 hands, you lose 75 times one big blind = -75bb automatically, on those 25 hands you have left and you play, you can’t make that much money back, so you will lose money.
 
Grinderella

Grinderella

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Folding Too Much

That's exactly what I was wondering about. I don't understand how the blinds can show negative expectation in 700,000 hands when we would expect at least small percentage of Monster hands to show a positive return... even when OOP!
 
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