I was just thinking about how to avoid suckouts. In a cash game where you can reload I think it's near impossible, but in a tournament where survival is key to winning, avoiding a suckout could be the differance betweenin winning or losing.
I was playing in a live shoot out the other night. It's early in the game, the blinds are 25/50 and average stack is 1000. Blinds are 8 minutes long and I'mm in middle position with A/J unsuited.
BB + 2 minimum raises to 100, and I call with A/J, 4 out of 10 see the flop.
Flop is J/2/7
The original raiser, is a young kid and after a few hands I've already marked him as too loose, he minimum raised from EP and I just know that he's just making an aggressive play at the pot as he goes all-in.
I consider a moment what he has, and put him on overaggression with A/K or A/Q, possibly K/J or A/J since he went all-in. J/J maybe but he's too loose and would have rised higher pre-flop, I called and everyone else folded.
He flips over K/J and stood up saying "You have A/J don't you?" before I flipped them over. "Good game" he says.
The turn is a 3 and the river is a K to make his two pair and hes sits down as I get up to leave the game being knocked out.
I think this is a situation where a good tournament player could fold, even though he/she thinks they may have the best hand at the flop.
I didn't fold this one, my instincts were right about this player and I think the call of the all-in is ok, the odds
were with me, but the nature of a tournament being either out or in is a major consideration.
Being early in a tournament, with only a few chips invested and catching top pair with the best kicker. A player in front of you goes all-in even if you think you have the best hand, you only have 1 pair and can be drawn out on. Perhaps it's best to fold in this situation.
If you flopped 2 pair or better, the call would be more automatic unless you put your opponent on trips or better. With 2 pair or better your chances of being sucked out on are less.
Some people like to gamble more some less in this kind of situation, I was just thinking about this and thought I'd post it here and see what others might think.