Averaging 31 BB/100

Hey everyone, I'm new to the website and wasn't sure where to post this so if its in the wrong section please move this thread to the right one thanks.

Ok so i've been playing 100NL and after 2635 hands I'm averaging 31.59 BB/100. I know people say that 7bb/100 is really good so does that mean I should expect a lot of variance and is there anyone else that averages a high bb/100?

My style of play is relatively aggressive.

no offense, but you've got a serious crash back to reality coming.

I'm not saying you can't beat 100nl, but at that limit, it's probably impossible for you to beat it at 31 BB/100. Post some stats + your graph though and congrats on a solid 2.6k hands

going to need a lot more hands to determine whether or not you are actually beating 100nl at that rate.

well done though so far.

That is only a verry good run. It is impossible to keep it like that.
7BB/100 at 100NL it probabely the winrate of one of the best players out there.

swingro said:

That is only a verry good run. It is impossible to keep it like that.
7BB/100 at 100NL it probabely the winrate of one of the best players out there.

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John A has a consistent 18/100 winrate at Bovada 100NL. I mean it's Bovada, but still.

Agreed, seems rather high; I would expect some devastating suckouts to start raining down in your future. But who knows maybe you have the special sauce.

Just because its rare for someone to keep running high doesn't mean it can't be done... Keep it up and prove everyone wrong but just take a break if you sense things are turning.

I thought I would reach 10k hands before I post any more results. But I have probably played over 100k hands in my life with poker being on and off, and a couple years ago I had a crazy run of turning $400 into $10k in 12days back in the day of FullTilt but this was mostly all lost due to hyper aggressive bankroll management and this has been my downfall every time I played always seeking the adrenaline rush from playing higher levels. In the end it has resulted in being a break-even player.

Now that exams are over I have started playing again and am trying to keep myself disciplined this time and not move up stakes but thought of taking a shot at $1/$2 once I reach a 2k Bankroll is this too early what do you guys think?

Also know that i have played as high as $25/50 so I know how the play changes as you go up in stakes and the taking the shot is basically if its OK with the rules of bankroll management.

We will see if I have what it takes to last 10k hands

Look out for my next post in maybe a few more days and if you want any special information in the next post let me know I'm a newbie to poker forums.

$2K bankroll isn't enough for a shot take at 200NL. From what I gather the play is much more aggressive and is one of the biggest jumps up in limit if you factor in difficulty. You should be looking at having at least 20 BIs for moving up. Although I wouldn't even advise it then. It is pretty unlikely you'll be able to beat it. You shouldn't even be playing 100NL with less than $2K in your BR as one swing could destroy you.

Aleksei said:

John A has a consistent 18/100 winrate at Bovada 100NL. I mean it's Bovada, but still.

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If you mean his honeymoon challenge that was a small example (like 40k hands i think) and was not only 100nl. Was a mix of 50nl and 200nl too. On his book he post some results on 200nl/400nl with more than 100k hands and he got 7bb/100.

But OP have only 2k hands, that is only 1 day of play for some, so is really nothing.

lol aleksei.

Yeh CrushingSouls, unfortunately (fortunately) you're on the good side of variance, after a reasonable sample i'd bet you're under 4bb/100 if at nl100 on pokerstars. If anyone wants to prop bet this i'd be happy to give 2:1.

/Logan/ said:

If you mean his honeymoon challenge that was a small example (like 40k hands i think) and was not only 100nl.

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No he actually posted a results graph for 100NL, 200NL and 400NL separately later, in another thread. His results were: 17.93/100 for 100NL (I think like 20k hands or something), 8/100 for 200NL, and 8/100 for 200NL. Also his C line at 100NL is pretty much a 45-degree slope all throughout so I can't think that he ever has huge downswings.

And like, I mean, come on guys. This is effing Bovada. Skill level is probably equivalent to 20NL played by brain-dead monkeys.

Well there you go then. He didn't experience much variance. Don't get me wrong John is obviously a shit hot player but 18BB/100 is completely unsustainable. From what I gather 20K hands is only enough to start detecting leaks. You're probably looking at 100K hands minimum for measuring WR.

ScottishMatt said:

Well there you go then. He didn't experience much variance. Don't get me wrong John is obviously a shit hot player but 18BB/100 is completely unsustainable. From what I gather 20K hands is only enough to start detecting leaks. You're probably looking at 100K hands minimum for measuring WR.

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Matt what is with that 11cents raise from Button at 5NL?))

Aleksei said:

No he actually posted a results graph for 100NL, 200NL and 400NL separately later, in another thread. His results were: 17.93/100 for 100NL (I think like 20k hands or something), 8/100 for 200NL, and 8/100 for 200NL. Also his C line at 100NL is pretty much a 45-degree slope all throughout so I can't think that he ever has huge downswings.

And like, I mean, come on guys. This is effing Bovada. Skill level is probably equivalent to 20NL played by brain-dead monkeys.

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if it's that simple, why isn't everyone crushing 100nl bovada?

xdeuceswild81xx said:

if it's that simple, why isn't everyone crushing 100nl bovada?

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Everyone isn't a high stakes pro with wsop cashes under his belt.

But like seriously, I think you guys are overestimating the importance of standard winrates. It's really all dependent on your skill gap to your opponents, along with whether you're playing in a rake optimal manner and how much rake actually is (if you think about it, in most rake structures beating the game for 8/100 actually means your gross winrate, before rake, is something like 15 or 20/100). Live low-stakes regs routinely beat the game for 20/100 and even 30/100.

Aleksei said:

Everyone isn't a high stakes pro with WSOP cashes under his belt.

But like seriously, I think you guys are overestimating the importance of standard winrates. It's really all dependent on your skill gap to your opponents, along with whether you're playing in a rake optimal manner and how much rake actually is (if you think about it, in most rake structures beating the game for 8/100 actually means your gross winrate, before rake, is something like 15 or 20/100). Live low-stakes regs routinely beat the game for 20/100 and even 30/100.

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lollllll

No offense, but as a live reg, that's drastically overstated. What exactly do you base all of this info on? Do you have graphs to show this? I mean, I've been around 50/100 nl for awhile and I've never seen anyone come close to a 31 BB/100 winrate. As most stated, a 7 bb/100 is an incredibly solid WR at these games. Obviously JohnA is talented and crushing, but I think calling the 100nl bovada games "brain-dead 20nl" skill level is no where even close to what they actually are.

Aleksei said:

No he actually posted a results graph for 100NL, 200NL and 400NL separately later, in another thread. His results were: 17.93/100 for 100NL (I think like 20k hands or something), 8/100 for 200NL, and 8/100 for 200NL. Also his C line at 100NL is pretty much a 45-degree slope all throughout so I can't think that he ever has huge downswings.

And like, I mean, come on guys. This is effing Bovada. Skill level is probably equivalent to 20NL played by brain-dead monkeys.

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You make my point.



And about this

Also his C line at 100NL is pretty much a 45-degree slope all throughout so I can't think that he ever has huge downswings.

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You are underestimating variance on long term, hand example is really important.

Do you ever read on 2+2 from a guy who post a thread call it Brag: no variance?, his graphs where 45-degree lines and still have 20bi downswings and 100k be stretches.

You can see his results on this thread. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=36594571&postcount=188
Notice how he can crush at 18bb/100 on every level with small examples, but on any on which is 100k more hands his WR still is 6-8bb/100.

What is a "C line"?

Honestly, don't worry about winrate. It's cliche but it's just about the quality of your decisions, and the depth of your thought process. I'll emphasize the last part because really the depth and amount of information you consider before you make your decisions is what separates the players you can get by and those who can crush. There's a lot of other factors of course too, but eliminating psychology and bankroll management, the depth of your thought process is key.

I remember the first time I took a lesson from a top pro, and paid $1200/hr to have my ego thumped and realize I still had a lot to learn. At the time I was beating 3/6NL at a really high clip, and thought I was likely wasting my money. Turned out to be a wise investment since I realized the depth of how I was approaching the situation was more shallow than I anticipated.

Winrate in general is deceiving though. You can have two guys about the same skill level on the same site, and one guy plays during the best peek hours of that site, and the other during non peak hours and you'll have a noticeable difference in their winrates.

For the ego record though, I have lots of 200k+ samples over 10bb/100 at many stakes (none of them bovada). lol

Aleksei said:

John A has a consistent 18/100 winrate at Bovada 100NL. I mean it's Bovada, but still.

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Yeah bovada, exactly lol. I've heard it's soft though, never played there. I assume the 100nl bovada regs are worse than the 10nl regs on stars lol.


I know skypoker, 100nl isn't much different to 10nl on stars it's just a shame there are very few games going and the software sucks big time.

I can't wait to get up to 100nl, if it's that soft at bovada. It just stinks that it's bovada.

I can't wait for the good sites to come back to the US and be full of fish again. Don't tell me it won't happen! I need to dream.

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ramdeebam said:

Yeah bovada, exactly lol. I've heard it's soft though, never played there. I assume the 100nl bovada regs are worse than the 10nl regs on stars lol.


I know skypoker, 100nl isn't much different to 10nl on stars it's just a shame there are very few games going and the software sucks big time.

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Na, it's soft, but not that soft. I've coached a friend recently as a favor at 10 and 25nl on stars and the regs are far worse than 100nl at bovada. The games are soft on bovada, but mostly the play is soft because you have gamblers that pop in to juice up the games. More people are impatient pre-flop and make more mistakes on bovada (I've only played 50k hands there, but this is my experience). Post flop they are weaker then the average regular is at equivalent stakes at most other major sites, but it's not like some huge difference.

You can play more tables at stars, so there's less action and less incentive to get involved. Bovada people play more hands.

I wasn't going to post until 10k hands but thought this was worth posting. So over the next 800 hands I turned a small $40 profit, then I lost $266 over the next 636 hands. I then decided to try Zoom poker which was a very bad idea, and I lost $102.

After that I did what I told myself not to and played some tournies. After paying $243 in total I didn't cash any which totals in $611 in losses. At the time my mate was over and he was still in one of the big tournies we both joined so I decided to go back to 100NL where I had already had a lot of success.

Playing 6-7 tables and 1149 hands later I was $610.71 in the black which is basically back to the highest point of my BR before I played Zoom and the tournies. So very happy! Including zoom hands and the amount spent on tournies my bb/100 is 14.63. Not including the tourny money it would be 19 bb/100. We will see how I fair closing into 10k hands. (currently at 5740 hands) BR at $1400

Good luck to you. Im thinking you are a little over your bankroll but im also usually pretty conservative