Applying Expected Value
I took my undergraduate probability course this year and wanted to apply the Expected Value
calculations to a situation I had recently. I thought this would be easy, after all, EV is an easy calculation. But, as with most math problems, the hard part is figuring where to put what numbers.
I am on the button, pre-flop, folded to me. I have QJclubs and decide to steal from the BB, who is also the small stack. I raise to 300 (3xBB), he goes all-in for $692. After I call, I discover he had ATos.
Knowing his cards, what is the correct way to do an EV calc for calling? Do you use your net gain (the pot minus what you've put in it), or the total pot?
According to an odds
calculator, I am 45% to win this situation. Here's what I get.
EV: 100% chance of losing: 1 * 310 = -310
Win: 45% chance of winning <HOWMUCH>: .45 * ?? = CL
Lose: 55% chance of losing <HOWMUCH>: .55 * -?? = CW
: Call if -310 > CW + CL
Get the question? Is HOWMUCH the total pot after I call ($1524), or is it my net change after calling (1524-702=822)? (Since both calculations suggest calling is correct, this is, obviously, just for my own edification).
: Of course, OTB, I didn't know what his hand was. And I probably should have figured that he was likely to play back at me in that situation. But having blundered, how would I apply the EV calculation without knowing his cards?