T
TorreyB
Rock Star
Silver Level
We all come across loose villians that pick up their flush draws from time to time, but are they really crazy when it comes to chasing these draws? I put some situational variables into a hand evaluator to find out and open it up for discussion.
First we'll use a hand where villian has: 9hTh
Flop comes out: Ah Ts 5h
Probabilities at this point:
By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 70% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes on the turn he's still left with 48% for the river.
Next we'll change the flop to give the villian a little less equity to see the numbers.
Villian has: 9hTh
Flop comes out: Ah 8s 5h
Probabilities at this point:
By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 46% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes for the villian on the turn he has 33% chance of still beating your hand on the river.
Discussion Questions
1) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 1st situation?
2) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 2nd situation?
3) Do you go balls deep when playing these kind of hands? If so, is it a specific situation from above?
Personally, I haven't looked at the probability numbers for these situations until now and have played tight and folded by the turn if there was no improvement. Which in the case of the first hand, it looks like I was making a big mistake by folding the turn. Am I crazy to now think that the loose players aren't so dumb for calling hands like these down to the river (especially the 1st one)?
First we'll use a hand where villian has: 9hTh
Flop comes out: Ah Ts 5h
Probabilities at this point:
By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 70% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes on the turn he's still left with 48% for the river.
Next we'll change the flop to give the villian a little less equity to see the numbers.
Villian has: 9hTh
Flop comes out: Ah 8s 5h
Probabilities at this point:
By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 46% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes for the villian on the turn he has 33% chance of still beating your hand on the river.
Discussion Questions
1) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 1st situation?
2) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 2nd situation?
3) Do you go balls deep when playing these kind of hands? If so, is it a specific situation from above?
Personally, I haven't looked at the probability numbers for these situations until now and have played tight and folded by the turn if there was no improvement. Which in the case of the first hand, it looks like I was making a big mistake by folding the turn. Am I crazy to now think that the loose players aren't so dumb for calling hands like these down to the river (especially the 1st one)?