Analyzing this hand.

Aces2w1n

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I sit down at the casino see a mega stack to the left of me, ASAP i move to the left of him and get position.
Anyways he's loose and a bully just the way i like them.
He raises 12, i'm on the dealer button so i naturally call K10clubs suited
FLOP 4d4c10s he bets 50... i call.
turn comes 10h... he checks and i raise 50, he then shoves all in....
i snap call and put in my $250

he shows 10 9... but now on the river he gets his miracle 9....

Been thinking long and hard and i know the type of player he was he was never folding that 10 on the flop. I'm thinking maybe if i 3b preflop and then hammered on the flop, wouldve possibly get a f old out of him, though he was playing crazy. Anyone got any other suggestions?
 
KerouacsDog

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fold pre. as played he was never folding a ten, unless maybe you shoved the flop, I dont know.
 
micromachine

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Think you played it fine post flop, nothing you can do, it's a bad beat.

Since you don't give stacks sizes or blinds sizes then its hard to say whether folding or 3 betting pre might have been better than calling.
 
youregoodmate

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Im fine flatting this pre against a CO range.

Cant understand why you are trying to fold out his weaker hand, do you not like money?
 
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Same board happened to me a couple of weeks ago.
I was holding As Ts. Villain rose pre flop. Called. The flop came 3s 3c Th.
He made a bet. Called. Turn was 7d. He bets I call. River was a 10d. He checks, I bet, he folds.

In your case IMO, you played it well and he got lucky.
However, why would you want him to fold? Or are you saying that now with the known outcome?
 
Four Dogs

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I sit down at the casino see a mega stack to the left of me, ASAP i move to the left of him and get position.
Anyways he's loose and a bully just the way i like them.
He raises 12, i'm on the dealer button so i naturally call K10clubs suited
FLOP 4d4c10s he bets 50... i call.
turn comes 10h... he checks and i raise 50, he then shoves all in....
i snap call and put in my $250

he shows 10 9... but now on the river he gets his miracle 9....

Been thinking long and hard and i know the type of player he was he was never folding that 10 on the flop. I'm thinking maybe if i 3b preflop and then hammered on the flop, wouldve possibly get a f old out of him, though he was playing crazy. Anyone got any other suggestions?

You wanted him to fold??? I don't think so. Stop worrying about the results, AND STOP CALLING 6x RAISES WITH CRAP hands!
 
youregoodmate

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You wanted him to fold??? I don't think so. Stop worrying about the results, AND STOP CALLING 6x RAISES WITH CRAP HANDS!

Your profile says you play live, therefore you should be aware that 6x opens are pretty normal. Against a CO open range KTs is not is bad shape and we have position. Also note that OP described him as a loose bully making KTs even more of a flat.
 
Four Dogs

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Your profile says you play live, therefore you should be aware that 6x opens are pretty normal. Against a CO open range KTs is not is bad shape and we have position. Also note that OP described him as a loose bully making KTs even more of a flat.
Yes I play live and yes I know that a 6x raise is standard for bad players, if not on the low side, that's why playing live is so profitable. But I think you're missing my point, just because everyone else at the table plays bad doesn't mean you have to.

So you call 6x with a weakish holding like KTs, what is it that you expect to happen when you miss your flop 2/3 of the time? Are you going to raise him when an ace comes on the flop? Are you going to float his CB when it doesn't? Do you have a plan other than just standing up to a bully? If you're going to call 6x, then why not 8x, 10x, or 12x? My point is that cold calling 3x or bigger with anything less than a trapping hand like TT-AA or AK (maybe AQ) is not profitable and it doesn't matter how bad the player is.

What does matter are effective stack sizes. I'm sure you're familiar with the concept of implied odds. There's a rule of thumb in NLH called the 10,20,30 rule where it's considered profitable to call a raise. The exact numbers are source of wide debate (so much so that it is often called the 15, 25, 35 rule) but here's the gist of it. You may profitably call a preflop raise if you stand to make back 10x the bet size with a pair (set mining), 20x with suited connectors, or 30x with a gapper. KTs isn't even a 1 gapper but just playing along, both you and he would need to be at least 180x deep or in this case $360 just to break even on the call.

Now I know what you're going to say, that you don't need to improve, and I'll admit that KTs is certainly ahead of his range, but that would be the case with any calling hand, right down to deuces. The problem is that he has information that you do not. To you, his range is wide, to him, you're range is narrow. If you put up a fight, he has the choice of giving up or continuing on based on the strength of his hand. You however must call down with very weak holdings like single pairs or even high cards because you're plan was to outplay him, not to out flop him. By calling his raise, he remains in control of the hand.

So what are you're choices? You have three.
1)You can wait for premium hands to fight back with. I don't like this option as you lose value by having to fold out all those hands decent enough to open raise but not strong enough to call cold. KT suited or otherwise falls into this category.

2)You can change seats (or tables for that matter). Better, but if you're a good player, why would you want to give up position vs. a looser, weaker player? The answer is, you don't. Which brings us to the third option.

3)You Can Raise! I never said you shouldn't play KTs, just that you shouldn't call with it. Vs weak players, 3 betting with position is profitable with virtually any 2 cards. This is especially true in live settings. By raising you put him in the position of having to make a real decision based on the strength of his cards, his position, and you're table image; and poor players make poor decisions. He'll call with his entire range, hoping to hit a miracle flop. He'll never take control back unless he has a monster hand and he'll call down with weak made hands. You however have complete control. When he calls your C-Bet you can either take him for three streets of value, fire another barrel, take a free card, control the pot size, whatever you want.

If you want to outplay someone this is how do it, not by cold calling ridiculous raises. Good players know that bet sizing should always serve a purpose, they raise big when they expect, and want, to get called big. Bad players raise big and call big because they don't know any better and because they think "it's normal".

Sorry for the long windedness (is that a word?) and for the all caps shout out in my original post. Just trying to make a point.

GL.
 
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Four Dogs

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If he is not crazy,then you are crazy.
I'm a little crazy but if you sat down at the table with me it might be hard to tell. For the most part I play a tight aggressive game which has served me well. I'm sure I'd get my ass handed to me at a table of pro's but that not who I face at $1/$2 and $2/$5.
 
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for me it was a preflop fold from you. wait to get better starting hands at least suited connecters to move against this player
 
aa88wildbill

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Sounds like the only way to win was to push pre flop!
 
youregoodmate

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My point is that cold calling 3x or bigger with anything less than a trapping hand like TT-AA or AK (maybe AQ) is not profitable and it doesn't matter how bad the player is.

Then you are making a very bad point. Read that sentence back to yourself. This is incredibly nitty which I guess is okay live but its definitely not the most profitable route. Besides the hands you labelled are not 'trapping hands' and hardly ever should be when playing live against fish, just gii.

3 betting isnt bad, however, the general rule is 3 bet hands like this when flatting isnt profitable and his F3B is going to be quite high. In this case we are facing a CO open from an aggressive player. KTs dominates that range quite well plus we are in position and can pot control and float. If this was a tight player then I would agree to 3 bet or fold but against an aggro player flatting can be very profitable depending on your postflop capabilties.
 
Aces2w1n

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It was a $1 $3 table... max buyin was 200... i had like 240 he had like 800...
My head was at that if i'd hit the king or anything i was infront... and he'd try and push with his garbage hoping to fold me which i was never going to. I was doubling up on this guy whether he liked it or not... he got his miracle card.
Thanks for the point of the 3betting. That was helpful, i really don't want this guy to fold knowing i'd have him dominated or even be well infront.

One of the guys said to him becareful this guys a *rock*... so i could've easily 3bet him preflop and then slammed the hammer and got him to fold, cuz 4410 ... he may as well have me on pocket pairs. I was quite happy getting up and walking off losing the hand knowing i'd played the best. I think my heads in the same place as you *YOUREGOODMATE* ... If i call only with premium hands that makes me predictable.

I've been classed as a rock lately even a nit a month or so ago, though i'm more aggressive these days. But i guess the thing i can take is those regs at the table might have to think harder to what i might be calling with next time?.. perhaps i'll have more chips in the middle and get paid off really well
 
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Four Dogs, I have to say there's just so, so much with that post I couldn't agree less with. You don't actually need TT+ to play some post flop poker in position against a poor player and you certainly don't need 180 blinds effective to break even flatting KT btn vs co when he opens. I am a nobody with but a meager dozen-ish posts so I won't engage you in a debate (I'll leave that to Emma Stone) but I'd like to think you're keeping an open mind in regard to some of the advice you're giving, yes?
 
Four Dogs

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Then you are making a very bad point. Read that sentence back to yourself. This is incredibly nitty which I guess is okay live but its definitely not the most profitable route. Besides the hands you labelled are not 'trapping hands' and hardly ever should be when playing live against fish, just gii.

3 betting isnt bad, however, the general rule is 3 bet hands like this when flatting isnt profitable and his F3B is going to be quite high. In this case we are facing a CO open from an aggressive player. KTs dominates that range quite well plus we are in position and can pot control and float. If this was a tight player then I would agree to 3 bet or fold but against an aggro player flatting can be very profitable depending on your postflop capabilties.



Four Dogs, I have to say there's just so, so much with that post I couldn't agree less with. You don't actually need TT+ to play some post flop poker in position against a poor player and you certainly don't need 180 blinds effective to break even flatting KT btn vs co when he opens. I am a nobody with but a meager dozen-ish posts so I won't engage you in a debate (I'll leave that to Emma Stone) but I'd like to think you're keeping an open mind in regard to some of the advice you're giving, yes?

I'm not sure when raising instead of calling became nitty, but okay and I did expect to get some heat from this and that's okay too. In my experience cold calling, even 3x, in most cases is a big loser but when and if you do it it must be with a truly dominating hand and KTs is just not that strong and certainly doesn't dominate his range even if he's raising 60% of his hands. What's more you're about a 60/40 dog to all the hands that are already ahead, any ace, any pair, KQ and KJ, that's 41 hands or about 1/3 of his range.

My problem with cold calling a big bet is that it isn't any sort of a cogent plan at all. Because you're plan is to outplay him you stand to lose as much playing back when you're behind as he does and probably more. He will know when he's behind, you will not. And you can't just expect you're going to take him to the mat everytime you pair up. The guy may be a bully, and he may be a bad player but that doesn't mean he's stupid too.

I don't know if either of you use tracking software but if you can, just run a simple filter. Cold calling vs. 3 betting in position. For me it's -57BB for the former and +65BB/100 for the latter. Running a report for all players in my database shows -39BB/100 for cold calling with a 32% winrate vs. +72BB/100 and 60% winrate for 3 betting. It seems to me that if you want to outplay him then do it preflop. Make him be the one who makes the poor decisions.

Oh, and DunningKruger, I don't know you but welcome to CC. Feel free to engage me in debate whenever you want. And I certainly won't complane if you send Emma Stone as your proxy;)
 
youregoodmate

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I'm not sure when raising instead of calling became nitty, but okay and I did expect to get some heat from this and that's okay too. In my experience cold calling, even 3x, in most cases is a big loser but when and if you do it it must be with a truly dominating hand and KTs is just not that strong and certainly doesn't dominate his range even if he's raising 60% of his hands. What's more you're about a 60/40 dog to all the hands that are already ahead, any ace, any pair, KQ and KJ, that's 41 hands or about 1/3 of his range.

My problem with cold calling a big bet is that it isn't any sort of a cogent plan at all. Because you're plan is to outplay him you stand to lose as much playing back when you're behind as he does and probably more. He will know when he's behind, you will not. And you can't just expect you're going to take him to the mat everytime you pair up. The guy may be a bully, and he may be a bad player but that doesn't mean he's stupid too.

I don't know if either of you use tracking software but if you can, just run a simple filter. Cold calling vs. 3 betting in position. For me it's -57BB for the former and +65BB/100 for the latter. Running a report for all players in my database shows -39BB/100 for cold calling with a 32% winrate vs. +72BB/100 and 60% winrate for 3 betting. It seems to me that if you want to outplay him then do it preflop. Make him be the one who makes the poor decisions.

Then this is your main problem. Are you folding to too many c-bets? Flatting with the wrong type of hands? This should overall be positive because we have implied hands that we are flatting like PP's and SC's. 3 betting will be profitable and a merged range is especially good live, however against this type of player I would prefer flatting to keep more of his range that we dominate in the hand. Think of the hands this aggro guy will open in the CO that we dominate or can outplay.

Hands like - Tx, small PP's, small SC's, even stuff like AK where we can float and take it away on the turn.
 
runnerx289

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played well, don't be results orientated
 
Four Dogs

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Then this is your main problem. Are you folding to too many c-bets? Flatting with the wrong type of hands? This should overall be positive because we have implied hands that we are flatting like PP's and SC's. 3 betting will be profitable and a merged range is especially good live, however against this type of player I would prefer flatting to keep more of his range that we dominate in the hand. Think of the hands this aggro guy will open in the CO that we dominate or can outplay.

Hands like - Tx, small PP's, small SC's, even stuff like AK where we can float and take it away on the turn.

So it's profitable for you? Are you sure? If it is then I definitely have a leak and I'd love to be proven wrong. This has the makings of its own thread. I'd like to hear what the general consensus is based on actual results.
 
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There's no reason whatsoever why playing a pot in position with a hand that's likely a favourite versus his range here (but may not be a favourite versus his continuing range when you 3bet) shouldn't be profitable. In fact, the btn should be your most profitable position overall as numbers converge. Position is just that valuable. I concur with ygm that failing to show a profit in such a scenario warrants reexamining how these pots are being played. Fit or fold is obv not the intention here, as nice as it is to flop broadway.

This isn't to say that 3betting here may not also be profitable depending on several factors most of which aren't known, but there's no way one shouldn't be able to show a profit flatting KTs on the btn when a poor player in the co opens an extremely wide range. Give me position and what is most of the time the best hand playing hu pots against a goof and I'll show a profit no problem. Villain has literally no advantage in this situation.
 
youregoodmate

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So it's profitable for you? Are you sure? If it is then I definitely have a leak and I'd love to be proven wrong. This has the makings of its own thread. I'd like to hear what the general consensus is based on actual results.

I wouldn't flat with them if it wasn't. What type of hands do you flat with? If you're 3 betting or folding all the time then that's a big leak and so easily exploited.
 
Four Dogs

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I wouldn't flat with them if it wasn't. What type of hands do you flat with? If you're 3 betting or folding all the time then that's a big leak and so easily exploited.
Unfortunately I don't have any recent hand histories 'cause I'm, you know, American. I don't consider 3-betting a problem or a leak. And I'm not a nit, as near as I can tell I play about 25% of my live hands. I will call with suited connectors and small/med pairs in MWP's but vs. a single raiser I'm more likely to 3 bet than cold call. My live results are pretty good but there's more than one way to skin a cat and if someone can actually show me that calling is better than raising I'm all ears. I just don't buy it. Do me a favor. Check it out in your own database and let me know how it turns out.
 
Aces2w1n

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I guess in dogs defense though... and my opponents aggroness... position is always favourable i guess against a weak player who will eventually reveal his weakness after a few strong calls.
I think he's right with 3betting perhaps because he wasn't going to ever let up which means i'll be in a terrible spot since he might be shooting hard everytime. He knows what he has but i'll be guessing on his range but its only a guess and going to be a costly mistake.

There is always that chance he could be trapping with a great hand... and then i'm totally blown out the water unless i've got a miracle flop ...

At first i was very happy the way i played but he's right its more profitable 3betting preflop and getting him to fold & push hard on the flop.
 
youregoodmate

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Unfortunately I don't have any recent hand histories 'cause I'm, you know, American. I don't consider 3-betting a problem or a leak. And I'm not a nit, as near as I can tell I play about 25% of my live hands. I will call with suited connectors and small/med pairs in MWP's but vs. a single raiser I'm more likely to 3 bet than cold call. My live results are pretty good but there's more than one way to skin a cat and if someone can actually show me that calling is better than raising I'm all ears. I just don't buy it. Do me a favor. Check it out in your own database and let me know how it turns out.

Cold calling in my database is a + winrate when factoring All-in EV. My normal winrate will be negative because I'm running like 30+ BIs below EV at the moment. So yes it should be profitable!

Let me ask you this, if you're flatting and not making profit, why are you flatting? It might just be you have a small hand sample and you actually profitable, or that you fold to cbets too often I wouldn't be able to say.

If you're still unsure post in the monthly cash thread and ask if flatting a standard open should yield a + winrate, I guarantee they will all say it should.
 
Four Dogs

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Cold calling in my database is a + winrate when factoring All-in EV. My normal winrate will be negative because I'm running like 30+ BIs below EV at the moment. So yes it should be profitable!

Let me ask you this, if you're flatting and not making profit, why are you flatting? It might just be you have a small hand sample and you actually profitable, or that you fold to cbets too often I wouldn't be able to say.

If you're still unsure post in the monthly cash thread and ask if flatting a standard open should yield a + winrate, I guarantee they will all say it should.

Not sure what you're saying? I think what you're saying is that you've got a negative BB/100 from cold calling but that's just due to bad luck based on you're All-In equity? Are you talking about times when you've cold called an all-in bet? That can't be a very large sample. How about just cold calling in total.

Let's keep it in just the last last 3 seats, HJ, CO and Button. I've Cold Called 1942 times with a win rate of -51.32BB/100 and over half of those hands on the button. The range of hands I've CC'd with are a mixture of just about anything you could imagine playing, Pairs, SC's, 1 Gappers, Suited Aces, Broadways etc. The only hands that have shown a profit are Pairs 15BB/100 and strangely enough Suited Aces at 83BB/100. I don't have time to look into it right now but I'll bet both of those came in MWP where I was getting 3:1 or better to call. In no case was it profitable to call from the HJ.

You ask me why I'm flatting at all if I don't think it's profitable? Well, mostly because the hands I was flatting with probably came before I figured out that I shouldn't. But there are other reasons too. I'll sometimes make -EV calls because I want to slow someone down a bit, or because I want to mix up my game, or because I'm tired, frustrated, on tilt or maybe even a little drunk. I've got quite a few WTF hands in my database.

Hey, I gotta go. Big job interview coming up. Wish me luck. Also, thanks for making me take a good look into this subject, it's been a long time since I've spent this much time in my database. I've learned a lot from it and I was actually surprised at how well I did with the Suited Aces.
 
youregoodmate

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Not sure what you're saying? I think what you're saying is that you've got a negative BB/100 from cold calling but that's just due to bad luck based on you're All-In Equity? Are you talking about times when you've cold called an all-in bet? That can't be a very large sample. How about just cold calling in total.

Let's keep it in just the last last 3 seats, HJ, CO and Button. I've Cold Called 1942 times with a win rate of -51.32BB/100 and over half of those hands on the button. The range of hands I've CC'd with are a mixture of just about anything you could imagine playing, Pairs, SC's, 1 Gappers, Suited Aces, Broadways etc. The only hands that have shown a profit are Pairs 15BB/100 and strangely enough Suited Aces at 83BB/100. I don't have time to look into it right now but I'll bet both of those came in MWP where I was getting 3:1 or better to call. In no case was it profitable to call from the HJ.

You ask me why I'm flatting at all if I don't think it's profitable? Well, mostly because the hands I was flatting with probably came before I figured out that I shouldn't. But there are other reasons too. I'll sometimes make -EV calls because I want to slow someone down a bit, or because I want to mix up my game, or because I'm tired, frustrated, on tilt or maybe even a little drunk. I've got quite a few WTF hands in my database.

Hey, I gotta go. Big job interview coming up. Wish me luck. Also, thanks for making me take a good look into this subject, it's been a long time since I've spent this much time in my database. I've learned a lot from it and I was actually surprised at how well I did with the Suited Aces.

Good luck in the interview.

Well Im actually just running plain bad over the last 70k hands. I cleared my DB out before then because of problems with PT crashing all the time so I dont have my figures from before.

Well the sample you have of 2k hands is still relatively small so variance could be a big contributing factor. Flatting should be profitable but its about choosing the times to flat.

For example, with the hand we are discussing there would be no way I would flat KTs against an UTG open, however, because it is a CO open his range will be far wider and our flat will be far more profitable.

As I mentioned before 3 betting is okay, assuming like with most live players he has a tendancy of calling 3 bets OOP, then 3 betting a merged range is going to be good. However, I dont like inflating the pot merely to take initiative in the hand, I would far rather flat and let the players from the blinds join as well. Whether he flats or folds to the 3 bet, calling should be more profitable assuming we can play well post.

We have to assume the range of hands he will open raise with consdering he is quite loose.

Hands that dominate us,
AT, AK, KQ, KJ, TT+

Hands that we dominate,
QT, JT, T9, maybe include hands like K9s and T8s because of how loose he is.

Now that looks quite daunting but consider that we are in position, when he misses we can float the flop and take it away on the turn. When overcards come to his pairs we can do the same, because we are in position it opens up a whole world of opportunities for us.
 
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