Analyse my 10nl FR stats please!!

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

Hey dudes,

So i've just accepted that even though variance has been quite the bitch to me during my time there, some blame must lay at my feet for my meh results at 10nl FR.

Below are my stats over the 40k~ hands i have in my current DB, have included as much as I think needs to be but ofc if you would like anymore stats or filters ran then please just ask.

I'm ready for quitting poker or grinding out 5nl as a hobby for the rest of my days as this is starting to piss me off now, so I would REALLY appreciate any help or advice that anyone can give me.

I seem to crush 5nl but 10nl is the wall for me and i've just had consistently shit results!

Thanks for any advice you can give

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

You are not 3betting enough from CO+

You arent being selective with your cbetting, especially from the SB, your stealing 40% and cbetting 60%. If your steals are profitable from the SB then your cbets cant be profitable and vice versa.

Those are the biggest 2 that stand out to me.

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

Stu_Ungar said:
You are not 3betting enough from CO+

You arent being selective with your cbetting, especially from the SB, your stealing 40% and cbetting 60%. If your steals are profitable from the SB then your cbets cant be profitable and vice versa.

Those are the biggest 2 that stand out to me.

Thanks for the quick reply, done a filter for in the SB and PFR = true

Doesnt look like im having issues there, is there a better filter to run for looking at this?

EDIT: I suppose that includes value hands as well though.

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

I still think you are cbetting too much from the SB

I also think your graph includes all the times you 3bet and / had a premium hand.

Why not filter out all the times you have JJ+AQ+ and all the times you 3bet.

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

Filtered for in SB, PFR = True, 3bet = False, all hands minus JJ+ AQ+

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

Bet bigger from the Sb then

Nathan Williams · Nov 2, 2011

I would cbet a fair bit more, steal quite a bit more and play more hands in position. Only real things that jumped out to me.

Edit: could 3bet a bit more too.

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

Also steal more often.

What I thought was happening was that you were opening wide because you expected to get folds, but if thats the case you would expect your win without SD to be lower.

As its high, people are calling really wide and still folding to cbets.

Therefore steal even more and make SB raise size bigger.

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

Am I right in thinking you check OOP with weak made hands but will bluff with nothing?

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

Stu_Ungar said:
Therefore steal even more and make SB raise size bigger.

Was hoping you would explain what you meant by bet bigger lol thats definitely a fair point, i open 3x from the SB and BTN when stealing, 4x everywhere else in general

Stu_Ungar said:
Am I right in thinking you check OOP with weak made hands but will bluff with nothing?

I would say you are right in thinking that, like TPmeh-GK I probably c/c OOP, whereas IP i'd be betting for value and to charge any draws, underpairs or randoms that want to c/c OOP.

Stu_Ungar · Nov 2, 2011

orangepeeleo said:
Was hoping you would explain what you meant by bet bigger lol thats definitely a fair point, i open 3x from the SB and BTN when stealing, 4x everywhere else in general

Open 3.5x from SB (your money is comming from being called and cbetting)

orangepeeleo said:
I would say you are right in thinking that, like TPmeh-GK I probably c/c OOP, whereas IP i'd be betting for value and to charge any draws, underpairs or randoms that want to c/c OOP.

Be more agressive from the CO oop then.

look at it like this when you cbet after stealing from either the SB you are guaranteed to be OOP.

In the SB your cbetting 60% and doing that with a 40% range.

In the CO your cbetting 60% and doing that with a range that is almost twice as strong as the SB and you have position most of the time.

It therefore stands to reason that you are not value betting enough in the CO and bluffing too much in the SB.

However the bluffing seems to be working, so why C/C hoping to get a weak hand to SD when betting is showing a big profit?

If you look at your bb/100 in the SB and take off the 50bb you are forced to post in that position, your winrate from the SB is higher than from the Co, where you have position fairly frequently and a much stronger range.

So be more agro postflop from the CO.

WVHillbilly · Nov 2, 2011

Concentrate on your play from the blinds. Your loss rates from both blind positions are too high. Looks to me (as compared to my stats anyway) that you're playing too tight from both blinds. For comparison my BB loss rate is 42bb/100 and the SB is 24bb/100.

baudib1 · Nov 2, 2011

I'd steal a bit more from CO and way more from the BTN.

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

Also had this put into the stats thread on 2p2, for the benefit of others looking at this for pointers on how their stats are I will put the reply that I got there too, also this might fuel a bit of discussion from the guys here too.

orangepeeleo: your graph is a classic case of FGators syndrome.
( http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...on-fgators-dollars-serious-theory-post-32391/ ) That is the classic weak tight nit that plays very standerd but folds to any kind of opposition. It's kind of surprising to see this happening at NL10.
Your stats are interesting in a number of ways:
(1) your basic preflop stats are OK. You play really tight, but it's full ring so not that bad. You are position aware, steal a decent amount, hardly any 3-betting but that's OK too.
(2) Postflop you are just on the low side of the right aggressiveness range in just about every stat. You are reasonably aggressive, but the numbers still say "somewhat weak tight".
(3) Your Agg Factor numbers look pretty good, but your Agg Freq% look a bit low. That is classic weak-tight: bet, and fold when raised.
The point is: bet/fold is a very good move in many spots, but it looks like you ar overdoing things in general, playing too straightforward and predictable. (Again, amazing this can be true at NL10 now).
(3) The most amazing stat you have is the River Call Efficiency. That is amazingly high. In fact, I think you are the first person ever I have seen with a RCE that may be too high. I suspect you are calling a lot situations on the river where you should be raising, for value.

Overall: learn to think of your opponent's range for their actions, and be less paranoid about what they hold when they do not fold. You are a tight player, and odds are your value bets are still valuable even when called.
This is tricky advice, because you will need to open up postflop more. This is a recipe for variance, and straight to monkey tilt if overdone.
But, really, you are so tight. When they call you, they do not have you beat, honestly.

orangepeeleo · Nov 2, 2011

I'm off to bed now, will respond to points that I haven't addressed tomorrow, thanks for the advice from everyone so far though, much appreciated

jbbb · Nov 2, 2011

Suprising a solid reply from 2+2. Shock.
Being a 6max play i'd say you're playing too tight in late positions and i'd 3bet a lot more. ATM you're only 3betting like JJ+, AKo+. I'd open up a bit and depending on villian and original position of raiser 3bet like [AQs, JJ] , AKo+, QQ+, 55-77, and a few SC's. The ones in brackets are a bit more situation dependant but if someone opens in HJ or CO i'd probably 3bet them.
Oh yeah and some good replys in here too. <3 CC

WVHillbilly · Nov 2, 2011

He's playing FR not 6-max.

NineLions · Nov 3, 2011

orangepeeleo said:
Also had this put into the stats thread on 2p2, for the benefit of others looking at this for pointers on how their stats are I will put the reply that I got there too, also this might fuel a bit of discussion from the guys here too.

Yeah, I like this analysis.

One thought that may also be dangerous; I tend to vary my game more at 10nl than at other levels (most of my db is 25nl) because the range of opponents varies more frequently and wider. Actually, now that I think of it, I vary it even more at 2nl when I sit there to increase my tables, set up HUDs, ect., so generally wider range the lower the level. What I'm trying to say is that my VPIP/PRF gap is wider at 10nl than 25nl because 10nl players give me more opportunities to call their minraises and multiway pots with a wider range than is useful at 25 and higher. And wider than your gap between the two. Just a thought.

btw, you say that you were more successful at 5nl; how do these stats compare with your 5nl stats?

WVHillbilly · Nov 3, 2011

NineLions said:
Yeah, I like this analysis.

One thought that may also be dangerous; I tend to vary my game more at 10nl than at other levels (most of my db is 25nl) because the range of opponents varies more frequently and wider. Actually, now that I think of it, I vary it even more at 2nl when I sit there to increase my tables, set up HUDs, ect., so generally wider range the lower the level. What I'm trying to say is that my VPIP/PRF gap is wider at 10nl than 25nl because 10nl players give me more opportunities to call their minraises and multiway pots with a wider range than is useful at 25 and higher. And wider than your gap between the two. Just a thought.

btw, you say that you were more successful at 5nl; how do these stats compare with your 5nl stats?

I don't KNOW the answer here but I'd be willing to bet that his blind losses and hence NSD winnings are MUCH better.

orangepeeleo · Nov 3, 2011

NineLions said:
btw, you say that you were more successful at 5nl; how do these stats compare with your 5nl stats?

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/7006/5nlstats.jpg

jbbb · Nov 4, 2011

WVHillbilly said:
He's playing FR not 6-max.

Aye, the "i'm a 6max player" was a disclaimer kind of thing.
However on this note i'm interested to know if FR players should play the last 6 positions in FR the same they should when they play 6max (obv. not 3betting people opening early positions).

Stu_Ungar · Nov 4, 2011

jbbb said:
Aye, the "i'm a 6max player" was a disclaimer kind of thing.
However on this note i'm interested to know if FR players should play the last 6 positions in FR the same they should when they play 6max (obv. not 3betting people opening early positions).

In essence the 2 games should play the same when the first 3 positions are folded in FR.

The blinds should be a little more agressive than in FR because the amount paid in blinds in bb/100 is higher in 6max than FR so you cant wait as long for a hand. However it dosent mean that they need to be insanely aggressive.

Stu_Ungar · Nov 4, 2011

orangepeeleo said:
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/7006/5nlstats.jpg

You cbet the CO more in those stats

Do the same filter as before for the SB, (no premiums, no 3bet etc)

orangepeeleo · Nov 4, 2011

orangepeeleo · Nov 4, 2011

WVHillbilly said:
I don't KNOW the answer here but I'd be willing to bet that his blind losses and hence NSD winnings are MUCH better.

I'd say apart from this, there isnt much difference to my play from 5nl to 10nl.

So can i def say that I have not over-adjusted whilst moving up, but instead have just found a harder game??

Analyse my 10nl FR stats please!!

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